OH BOY! HE CAN DO BETTER AT 12.5 ON BETDAQ: Daqman turns the spotlight on outsiders likely to cope with the mud today, including Carrickboy at Haydock (12.5 on BETDAQ this morning), whose ability is hidden in poor form figures over specialist obstacles.
14.0 IRISH RAIDER FOR ASCOT PRIZE: Daqman takes two to turn over the Cheltenham form of Olofi on the flatter Ascot track at 9.6 and 14.0 an Irish raider, both taken on BETDAQ this morning.
1.30 Ascot Paul Nicholls goes for a hat-trick with Cedre Bleu, 8lb inferior on official ratings to Solix, a CD winner and five times successful on heavy ground.
But Cedre Bleu, whose reappearance run took the freshness out of him after a breathing operation in the summer, will surely make a race of it and is worth a punt on a day of open events.
1.45 Haydock Hollow Tree will appreciate the step up in trip but would be the biggest-weight carrier in the recent history of this race.
His trainer, Donald McCain, has a worried eye on Constant Contact, a heavy-ground winner dropped in class whom he used to train: huge at 16.5 on BETDAQ this morning, as one unexposed at today’s trip.
It’s an open race and I can see Bakbenscher (8.6) bouncing back. He loves the mud and has been dropped 10lb since his last success at Exeter.
2.00 Ascot (Long Walk Hurdle) There will be a hushed arena as one of our greatest heavyweights, Big Buck’s, fails to come out of his corner..
It’s a silent tribute, and a black mark against the World Hurdle standard, that Smad Place, the favourite today, was a million miles inferior to ‘Bucks’ (20lb to be more precise).
Barry Geraghty picks Cucumber Run over Master Of The Hall but you need improvement of another stone – from 34lb below Big Buck’s standard – if that one is to be competitive against Smad Place, such are the reverential gaps as they all trail in Big Buck’s wake.
As a 12f-14f horse on the Flat, Prospect Wells, fifth in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and runner-up to Zarkandar on his run back, could be up to this trip, but heavy ground means he must not only stay it but stay it very well.
Reve De Sivola can claim to be alongside Smad Place, based on his last-time second to Big Buck’s, but he’s a long-term bridesmaid, placed six times since he last won two years ago.
We badly need a big improver to step into the breach and maybe it’s Trustan Times, who’s certainly on the upgrade, and won the Haydock race that has gone to Dynaste and Grands Crus. In 103% probability log in the orange, I split my stakes.
2.15 Haydock (Tommy Whittle Chase) Old horses (over eight) don’t win this; nor any ‘heavyweights’ (over 11st 4lb) but, as with all the racing today, ability to adapt to heavy ground is the number-one criterion.
It’s an open race, punter friendly with 105% ‘book’ of offers in the BETDAQ orange, and I shall take in-form Venetia Williams to revive Carrickboy (12,5).
She’s always thought of him as a stayer and abortive attempts at the National fences are responsible for spoiling his form figures. He’s better than that.
3.10 Ascot (The Ladbroke) Four-year-olds have a zero record, despite several cracks at this, including one or two gambles.. Yet Balder Success, Lyvius and Ranjaan figure prominently in the BETDAQ market, as I write.
Paper-favourite Balder Success is twice a course winner, and tries to emulate last year’s stable victory with Raya Star, but Ranjaan, besieged by minor setbacks – missed the Triumph in March – has to prove himself on the ground.
Lyvius’ trainer, Nicky Henderson, has won it three times and runs four, with Barry Geraghty’s preference, Cash And Go, pressing the market leader, followed by It’s A Gimme, Tony McCoy’s choice from three J P McManus runners.
If we assume the four-year-olds will struggle, and that Geraghty and McCoy have got it right, we are left wondering whether Into Wain can improve on his first run back (better off with Petit Robin), as Cash And Go must do to see off Olofi.
But Rattan was unfancied, and got left behind (didn’t like the undulations), in Olofi’s race at Cheltenham. I can’t imagine Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins coming over twice for nothing, and 14.0 on BETDAQ had to be taken this morning.
It’s A Gimme has run second to last year’s winner, Raya Star, but was in receipt of a stone, suggesting that he’s not quite up to today’s competition.
So it is that I’m taking Cash And Go (9.6) and Rattan from the Olofi race, as the ones to turn him over on this flatter track at the revised weights.
3.40 Ascot Up 10lb on different ground and with the form of his Newbury win let down (placers Oh Crick pulled up, Renard beaten 78 lengths), the four-year-old Ulck Du Lin has it all to prove again. Lay.
DAQMAN’S BETS
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 3.9pts win BAKBENSCHER and 1.9pts win CONSTANT CONTACT, plus 1.8pts win (stakes saver) HOLLOW TREE (1.45 Haydock)
DAQ VALUE: BET 10pts win SMAD PLACE and 6.2pts win TRUSTAN TIMES (2.00 Ascot)
DAQ VALUE: BET 1.7pts win and place CARRICKBOY (2.15 Haydock)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 3.4pts win CASH AND GO and 2.2pts win RATTAN (3.10 Ascot)
LAY 10pts ULCK DU LIN (3.40 Ascot)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win CEDRE BLEU (nap, 1.30 Ascot) and 5 x 2pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win treble, the same one with SMAD PLACE and TRUSTAN TIMES (2.00 Ascot) and CARRICKBOY (2.15 Haydock)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points (so you can tell what offer he took by dividing 20 by the stake) but he has raised the stake to win 30 points in some races. Daq Value races today refer to the total probability of offers at 103% and 105% in those races as against 113% and 119% SP returned in the equivalent events last season. (Daq Multiples are staked as stated).
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