Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Sky Sports HD, 6pm)
Weather: 29/36f Partly Sunny. The Cincinnati Bengals can clinch back-to-back post-season appearances with victory over Pittsburgh. And with just two weeks of the regular season remaining, the AFC North title is still up for grabs, with Baltimore (9-6), Cincinnati (8-6) and Pittsburgh (7-7) all in contention.
Cincinnati have gone to the post-season in consecutive seasons just once. Only twice have they followed a playoff appearance with a winning record the following year and with Baltimore still to come next weekend, there will be a few more twists and turns before we find out whether they will buck those trends.
Last season the Bengals went 1-8 against teams who boasted a winning record. This season they have gone 2-3. It is fair to assume they have had an easier schedule, but not too easy to assume there has been any dramatic improvement.
Quarterback Andy Dalton is still making some errors – particularly on his deep throws and missing open receivers – and the secondary still needs work.
Pittsburgh have lost their last two – a dreadful performance at home to San Diego, and in overtime at Dallas – but they have beaten four of their seven opponents who currently boast a winning mark.
And no matter how many times you count them out, the Steelers know how to win big games.
Dalton has thrown five touchdowns and five interceptions in his last three games and some would say it is a matter of whether you’d sooner trust the second-year passer or his counterpart, Ben Roethlisberger. While that is a viable argument, it is a team game and the Steelers’ defence has looked very lightweight against two ordinary offences in the past couple of weeks.
Make no mistake, the Steelers, overall, do not appear to be a good team right now and the Bengals are playing well, especially defensively. While the task of winning in Pittsburgh has eluded them on their last two trips to Heinz Field, they have not lost three consecutive games there since November 2002. The Bengals are 5-7 in Pittsburgh in the month of December (losing on their last three trips there in this month) and taking the 4-point BETDAQ handicap seems logical.
New York Giants @ Baltimore Ravens (Sky Sports HD, 9.25pm)
Weather: 61/75f Mostly Cloudy. Baltimore can wrap up the AFC North with victory over the Giants – but that is probably not the way this is going to pan out. Entering the season, the Ravens had the fourth toughest schedule and were facing 11 quarterbacks who had Pro Bowl experience. The total combined age of the Ravens’ projected starting offensive line was 159 – conventional wisdom states that if the combined age of your offensive line is greater than 150, a steep decline may occur. The decline, however, has been more to do with defensive injuries than anything else.
The Ravens also entered the season having won 18 of their last 19 home games, and were 27-5 in Baltimore since John Harbaugh took over four years ago. Our big, bold prediction at the start of the campaign had the Ravens losing at least two home games this term – and they have done just that. That could be three by Monday morning, as the New York Giants, who are in a typical December swoon, can earn much-needed traction as they try to claw back the advantage they lost in the NFC East.
Ahmad Bradshaw is expected to return for the Giants, who still control their playoff destiny. Bradshaw missed last week’s 34-0 loss in Atlanta with a sprained knee, but a win here and victory in the season finale against Philadelphia, and they are in. Safety Kenny Phillips, a huge cog in their defence, also returns after sitting out the last two weeks with an MCL sprain.
The Ravens can afford to lose as they have already clinched a Wild Card, so it is not a great surprise to see them as 1-point underdogs on the BETDAQ handicap. They have had a few pivotal officiating calls go their way this season and could easily be in third place in the division.
The Giants were inept against Atlanta. They failed to stop the run and missed 18 tackles, which is not the best recipe for facing Ray Rice. They did not show the pedigree of a champion when being shut out in a statement game. And how does a team go from hanging 52 points on the New Orleans Saints to zero points seven days later?
But the Ravens are in disarray defensively and it is glaringly obvious that they will continue to struggle against the run if Pro Bowl right guard Marshal Yanda and safety Bernard Pollard remain sidelined.
Much as the Giants are desperate, the Ravens need a win, too. If the Ravens lose here, and again against Cincinnati, and either the Bengals and Steelers win out, the Ravens would most likely start their playoff run at either Denver or New England.
That should be incentive enough, but you would like to think that the Nation’s biggest TV market would like to see a New York team in the post season, wouldn’t you? That’s reason enough for going with the visitors.
Since it is Christmas and not the end of the world (how’d we get that one wrong?), here’s something every red-blooded male should want in his stocking. Deborah Allen and all the BEDAQ crew wish you all a Rockin’ Little Christmas…
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (C4, Monday, 1.20am)
Weather: 37/43f Chance Showers. San Francisco can take the NFC West by beating division rivals Seattle. Should Seattle win, they will book a playoff spot and the West can still be won by them if they win next week and the 49ers lose. San Francisco leads the series 14-13, and they have won four in a row – including a 13-6 victory on October 18 in San Francisco.
The Seahawks receive a 1-point start at home on the BETDAQ handicap but the 49ers can lock up the division title with victory – and perhaps a first-round playoff bye – having already secured a Wild Card berth following their emphatic win at New England last week.
The Seahawks are a perfect 6-0 at home this season and are executing all three phases of the game well: defence, offense and special teams. They have beaten five of the six teams they have faced who currently possess a winning record – the only blip was against San Francisco. The 49ers are 4-2 against so-called ‘quality teams’.
But while a week’s rest is usually thought of as beneficial, winning the division might not work in Seattle’s favour; since 1990, the Seahawks are 6-15 coming off a bye week and they lost at Miami following this season’s bye.
And this would appear not to be just any Wild Card team, as 108 points in the last two games would attest. The Seahawks are only the third team in league history to tally 50 or more points in consecutive games, and they are the first to do so since 1950.
In the past six games, the Seahawks have averaged 35 points and 413 yards per game. They also are allowing just 14.2 points per game, and they have a 5-1 record during that span.
Russell Wilson, who has to be considered for rookie of the year honours, is seeing things much better than he did earlier in the season and the Seahawks are utilising more read-option plays to great effect.
The Niners are a solid all-round team, but if you are looking for holes, they have lost and tied with the St Louis Rams and so far this season their record has produced a pattern: WWL, WWL, WWT, WWL, WW.
The Seahawks have never lost five consecutive games to the Niners in their 27 meetings, and given that San Francisco are playing a division rival off the back of a statement game on the road, it is possible that momentum could carry over for the Seahawks. Running back Marshawn Lynch could be the deciding factor.
San Diego Chargers @ New York Jets
Weather: 28/41f Mostly Sunny. In theory it’s possible to have two starting quarterbacks who take turns running an offensive team. It is not a new phenomenon. The Los Angeles Rams tried it for a while in the early Fifties when they were looking for a way to keep Bob Waterfield and Norm Van Brocklin on the same ball club. It didn’t work for long, though, because in practice such a set-up is doomed, out of the question. The San Francisco 49ers followed suit with Y.A. Tittle and John Brodie in the late Fifties/early Sixties – to their cost.
In the media, quarterbacks will talk a good game, spieling ‘team unity’ for the greater good.
The reality is that quarterbacks themselves can’t tolerate this. It’s enough trouble to be continually struggling with the coaches for control of what’s happening on the field. To have another man always warming up on the sidelines, waiting for your knee to pop or your heart to fail – this is something that another quarterback never gets used to. In his eyes the offensive team needs only one man in charge, and there’s never much doubt in his mind who that should be.
It gives me no great pleasure to crow about one pre-season prediction. That Greg McElroy would be the starting quarterback for the New York Jets by the end of the season.
The pressure of bringing in Tim Tebow via a trade from Denver appears to have proven too much for Mark Sanchez, who has apparently gone to pieces. At times he has often not been able to hit a bull in the ass with a banjo. He’s doing things he never would have done a year before, forcing plays that aren’t there.
But it is Tebow who we should feel sorry for. For all Sanchez’s struggles – his receiving corps has been decimated and outside of injured Santonio Holmes they lacked any real star talent to begin with – the Jets have utilised Tebow on just eight passing plays? It is clear that the coaching staff has no faith in the former Denver starter, a young quarterback who has proven he can win in the playoffs. Hopefully, he will be given an opportunity to ply his trade elsewhere. Jacksonville or Arizona look viable options.
The Jets will surely clean house at the end of the season and the same can be said for the Chargers, who are 1-point underdogs on the BETDAQ handicap in a game that will mean more to the draft order than anything.
In this game, despite his own struggles this term, you’d have to take Chargers’ passer Philip Rivers over rookie McElroy. It really is as simple.
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
Weather: 20/36f Mostly Sunny. Kansas City caused one of the more annoying handicap blows of the season when they kept Denver’s prolific attack in check and it is never easy to win at Arrowhead.
So there’s more than a little trepidation with this pick of the Colts to cover a 6.5-point BETDAQ handicap.
Yet it is hard to see the Chiefs mustering too much offense – they have recorded fewer than 10 points in four of their last five outings – and the Colts simply need a win or a tie to take them to the playoffs (or Pittsburgh defeat) for the tenth time in 11 seasons.
Kansas City’s pass rush isn’t good, although they have improved in recent weeks, but while Colts’ passer Andrew Luck has been sacked the fourth-most times in the league and his offensive line is missing starting centre Samson Satele, the Chiefs cannot rely on defence alone.
And without Dwayne Bowe, ruled out for the season, the Chiefs have few targets to worry the Colts’ secondary. The line looks a little low – the Colts should be over a touchdown favourite to beat the 2-12 Chiefs.
And let’s be honest, even pigeons aren’t intimidated by the Kansas City Chiefs these days…
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos
Weather: 18/48f Partly Sunny. Thirteen points is a tough nut to cover against a good defence – but if anyone can, it’s Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.
Historically, Cleveland rarely do well in the rarefied Colorado atmosphere, having won just once in their last 12 visits (a 30-29 success in October, 1990) and there have been some emphatic beatings.
The Browns have been a nice surprise as the season has progressed, although their recent trio of victories came against weak opposition and they have beaten just one ‘quality team’ in eight attempts this season. Denver’s defence is similarly playing well, so if it comes down to a battle of quarterbacks, who are you going to choose, Manning or Brandon Weeden? Thought so.
St Louis Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Weather: 59/66f Sunny. Tampa Bay were blown out 41-0 by the New Orleans Saints last week and are on a four-game losing skid. Players are shoving coaches on the sidelines. There’s mutiny aboard this ship.
But thanks to Adrian Peterson’s efforts last week, St Louis will redouble their efforts to stop Doug Martin on the ground and that should allow Josh Freeman to take advantage through the air. Take the Bucs to cover the field-goal BETDAQ handicap.
Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals
Domed stadium, weather inconsequential. The Cardinals’ offensive line has been a disaster all season. The quarterback carousel has not helped. Chicago were one of the better defences until they lost the veteran leadership of Brian Urlacher and they now need help to make the playoffs. Still, despite Jay Cutler’s inability to carry the team on his shoulders, the Bears’ fifth-ranked defence (12th against the run) should carry them to an easy win, as Matt Forte runs a less-than-solid Cardinals’ run defence ragged.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Weather: 63/73f Sunny. Miami still have an outside chance of making the playoffs, but they need to win here and in New England next week, plus help from elsewhere. That isn’t about to happen. In fact, the Phins could be worth opposing on the handicap as injuries are piling up and depth is an issue. Buffalo could go either way after getting blown out by Seattle, but with a coaching change looming, some will be playing for their contracts.
Suggestions:
Cincinnati +4
NY Giants -1
Seattle +1
San Diego +1
Indianapolis -6.5
Denver -13
Tampa Bay -3
Chicago -5.5
Buffalo +4
Tennessee/Green Bay Under 46 points
Buffalo/Miami Over 41.5 points
Cincinnati/Pittsburgh Under 42.5 points
Don’t forget to check out John Arnette’s views on the game at betdaqnfl.com
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 15: 8-7
Week 14: 6-8-1
Week 13: 7-7-1
Week 12: 8-7-2
Week 11: 8-4
Week 10: 6-8
Week 9: 9-4
Week 8: 7-9
Week 7: 8-6
Week 6: 6-8
Week 5: 4-9
Week 4: 10-3
Week 3: 5-8
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 1: 7-5
Twitter: @simonmilham
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