SEVEN WINNERS IN A ROW FOR DAQMAN: One of Daqman’s horses to follow, Toronado, his very first tip of the day yesterday, gave him seven consecutive winning races between Thursday and Saturday. The sequence included back-to-back naps.
NECK ON THE LINE FOR NUMBER EIGHT AT 6-1: It all started with his last bet on Thursday, Wild Coco (WON 7-4), then followed five wins in a row on Friday, including 5-1 in the Doncaster Cup (see Archive), and the first bet yesterday, Toronado (WON 11-4). The sequence ended when Face The Problem (2nd 6-1, beaten a neck) was mugged on the line in the Portland.
ARC TRIAL DAY: With Camelot unfrocked and Frankel staying home from the party, Danedream’s main rival for an Arc repeat should be revealed in the famous Foy, Niel and Vermeille tests at Longchamp today.
Why change a winning system? Camelot came. He stayed. But he didn’t conquer. Maybe the reason he lost the Triple Crown was lack of a pacemaker from a stable usually renowned for its tactical skills.
But the St Leger was run faster than average. Mickael Barzalona got the laurels for a brilliant ride. And the true test of hindsight is this: would you bet your ‘hard-earned’ on a different result should the race be run again? Not I, sir; not even with a Ballydoyle pacemaker.
Encke, who went up more than a stone between his narrow Gordon Stakes defeat in July and his Voltigeur third in a muddling race in August, certainly improved again, and could go on doing so.
It will be interesting to see what the handicapper makes of it: he will have to find a mark somewhere in between Encke’s threeparts-of-a-length defeat of the 124-rated Camelot and the four lengths by which he beat the third horse, Michelangelo (111).
I hope we shall see Encke – and the Doncaster Cup second, High Jinx – remain in training next season. But more about horses to follow tomorrow (my lists have contained 14 winners this season).
Now for the Arc. And there’s no sign in the market of our so-called horses of the year, Camelot and Frankel. Should Danedream win it again, she will be my number one, having already successfully tipped her to take our King George.
1.30 Longchamp (Prix Foy) A notable trialist today, Meandre, defeated Danedream in the Grand Prix De Saint-cloud, and will be favourite for this Prix Foy.
The Foy hasn’t thrown up the Arc winner since 1999 – that one (Montjeu) didn’t win it until the following year – and is an impossible betting race today, with Meandre, Fiorente for England and Orfevre for Japan all short of peak fitness after 56, 66 and 84 days’ holiday, respectively.
Fiorente beat Nathaniel last season and, ironically, we have a Triple Crown winner (the Japanese version) running today in Orfevre. Watching brief.
2.40 Longchamp (Prix Niel) The best of the day’s Arc trials in modern times. Montjeu (1999), Sinndar (2000), Dalakhani (2003), Hurricane Run (2005) and Rail Link (2006) all took the Niel on the way to their Triomphe.
The Aga Khan, who thinks there’s only one race in the calendar – the Arc – has two in this and two in the Vermeille. Were his millions well spent?
Favourites are likely to be Rail Link’s son, Last Train, and French Derby winner, Saonois, who beat the Aga’s Kesampour in the Chantilly Classic.
But I believe that His Highness has the trump card in Bayrir, who should be able to show his impressive acceleration in the conditions and become a world figure among racehorses – ahead of the stay-at-homes Camelot and Frankel – in that he has already won the Grade-1 Secretariat Stakes at Arlington.
3.10 Longchamp (Prix Vermeille) This used to be the premiere test in the great distaff days of Allez France, Ivanjica and Three Troikas, and recently came back to the fore through Zarkava (2008 Arc winner) and Stacelita.
Last year ‘s Vermeille winner, Galikova, fell short in the Arc and was behind Meandre at Saint-cloud in June, so her close third to Snow Fairy suggests that Ed Dunlop’s mare has some way to go to outdo Danedream in October.
More likely winner today is Shareta, who ran up to Danedream in last year’s Arc.. but is anything emerging among the fillies in this Classic season which so far looks below par?
Yellow And Green and Romantica are Group 2, Sediciosa Group 3, and Sydarra not even that, unless they improve, while Sagawara’s Group-1 wins were small-field muddling affairs.
Princess Highway has beaten our Oaks winner and stormed home six lengths in the Ribblesdale. Conditions are right for her today but her stall-11 draw is a worry.
I just wonder if the Danedream team haven’t found another star in Salomina, the German Oaks winner (trainer Peter Schiergen is ‘confident’).
They can certainly read the form book their way, since how Salomina runs against Shareta today will tell them about the chances of both their fillies for the 2012 Arc.
3.45 Longchamp (Prix Du Moulin) Here’s Farrh, Frankel’s fall guy (in the Sussex and the International), and runner-up to Nathaniel in the Eclipse.
Amazing credentials or does it tell us something about this year’s hyped horses in that Farhh has only ever won a class-2 handicap at Thirsk at best!
As we learned from the Leger yesterday, hype and reality have the plain face of ordinary reason in between. But, on a line through the Deauville form of Excelebration, Farhh has the beating of both Moonlight Cloud and Caspar Netscher.
And the other second-season animal in this small field, Sarkiyla, has to improve from a Group 3 at Deauville run a month slower (eight seconds, actuellement) than Excelebration’s over the same trip.
4.20 Longchamp (Prix Gladiateur) Godolphin’s Willing Foe won me more than a Terry’s chocolate orange in the Ebor and he could go on here to become the first British runner to win the Gladiateur since Darasim for Mark Johnston 2003.
Before that we had a string of victories: Dunlop, Elsworth, Harwood, Herries, Stoute are the other English names gracing the scoreboard since 1988.
If anything can stop Willing Foe’s successful leap into the pattern, it should be Ivory Land on all known form, but a word in your ear, kemo sabay: my man in Paris tells me to have a little ‘a cheval’ on another improver, Lone Ranger. Heh ho, Silver!
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.6pts win BAYRIR (2.40 Longchamp)
BET 4pts win PRINCESS HIGHWAY and 2pts win SALOMINA, with 2pts win (stakes saver) SHARETA (3.10 Longchamp)
BET 10pts win (nap) FARHH (3.45 Longchamp)
BET 4pts win WILLING FOE and 2pts win LONE RANGER (4.20 Longchamp)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
