NAPS HAT-TRICK FOR DAQMAN: Heavenly Dawn (WON 6-5) yesterday completed a naps hat-trick for Daqman, following Hunter’s Light (WON 2-1) and Vital Gold (WON 2-1). There’s another one today.
THAT’S FIVE OUT OF SIX: Yesterday’s success brought his total to five winning best bets out of six, with Shamdarley (WON 2-1) and Mojolika (WON 7-4) earlier in the week. Here are his nap results for the last 11 days (no winners at odds on):
* Wednesday: PAPHOS (WON 3-1)
* Thursday: Roman Soldier (2nd 6-4)
* Friday: Petaluma (unplaced 5-1)
* Saturday and Sunday: no nap
* Monday: SHAMDARLEY (WON 2-1)
* Tuesday: MOJOLIKA (WON 7-4)
* Wednesday: Hel’s Angel (2nd 5-4)
* Thursday: HUNTER’S LIGHT (WON 2-1)
* Friday: VITAL GOLD (WON 2-1)
* Saturday: HEAVENLY DAWN (WON 6-5)
90 POINTS PROFIT: The 11 days show a naps profit of just under 90 points (89.50) to 10-point level stakes. In that time, Daqman has also had doubles up at 20-1 and 14-1.
Turned over again! The one consistency in the Classics in Europe this year is that the last result will be turned over by the next one. Not least with the fillies.
Misty For Me, only 11th of 18 to Blue Bunting in the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas, won the Curragh version, before both were beaten in the Epsom Oaks by Dancing Rain.
Consider the absurdity of the situation as highlighted by Rhum: Dancing Rain had beaten Rumh three lengths when both lost the Swettenham trial at Newbury in May, yet Rumh is now considered the pacemaker in the Irish Oaks today for Blue Bunting who was not three but five lengths behind Dancing Rain at Epsom. And the winner of the Swettenham, Izzi Top, a head in front of Dancing Rain then, was only third, nearly five lengths behind her at Epsom.
More absurdity? This afternoon the filly who finished second to Dancing Rain at Epsom – Wonder Of Wonders – is odds on to beat her. Confused? I confess that I am.
Which form do we choose? After what I’ve just said, about Rumh’s connection with Dancing Rain and Blue Bunting, why not Banimpire, who beat Rumh 23 lengths on the soft at Ascot.
You may have to consider soft terrain this afternoon: the Curragh was already yielding before any rain last night or during today. I can’t see beyond the clouds on the horizon of my cornflakes.
The Epsom Oaks was run on good ground but in slow time, with Dancing Rain ‘stealing’ the race, and that’s why runner-up Wonder Of Wonders is thought capable of overturning Dancing Rain in this stiffer test, and the fourth, Blue Bunting, poorly ridden and unsuited by Epsom, thought capable of overturning both!
What we are really saying in all this is that we have lacked consistency in the weather (surprise, surprise), and therefore the going; we have lacked consistency in the pace of the races run; and early fillies have been overtaken by late developers, very common after a hard winter.
The professional approach to that? Treat every race as an individual contest, applying your logic to the conditions in which it’s run and the likely pace on the day.
As I say, I can’t be sure of the answer regarding the conditions but, if indeed Rumh is the pacemaker, we should get ‘a proper race’ this time. Since she hated soft ground at Ascot, we can suppose that she last out in front.
But there’s no point Frankie repeating his Epsom tactics on Blue Bunting; if she gets out the back, she’s lost the race. Yesterday at The Curragh – albeit in races of a maximum of 1m 2f – the analysis of each winner was: ‘led’, ‘made all,’ ‘prominent,’ ‘made all,’ soon clear’, ‘chased leaders’, and ‘prominent.’ Hold-up horses not in sight!
Blue Bunting and Wonder Of Wonders are the stand-outs in today’s race, if you look at the breeding for stamina. If you look at the market, Blue Bunting is the stand-out: 5.5 to Wonder Of Wonders 2.32, as I write.
And, since I spent hours on the Epsom Oaks form and came up with Blue Bunting, I’ll trust Frankie to get it right at The Curragh. Three fillies to finish fourth at Epsom have come on to The Curragh and recorded form figures of 212.
Altogether, eight Epsom losers have won today’s race in 16 years. Only 13 Epsom winners in the entire history of both races have gone on to score at The Curragh. Wonder Of Wonders dam was second at Epsom but fourth in Ireland.
BET 8.8pts win (nap) SHORT TAKES (1.55 Newton Abbot)
BET 2.2pts win and place LUCKY MONEY (2.05 Redcar)
BET 4.3pts win BLUE BUNTING (3.45 The Curragh)
DAQ YANKEE: SHORT TAKES (1.55 Newton Abbot), LUCKY MONEY (2.05 Redcar), BLUE BUNTING (3.45 The Curragh), BONDAGE (4.20 The Curragh).