6-1 JACKPOT WINNER WAS 9.0 ON BETDAQ: Daqman yesterday landed a 40-point jackpot which was another BETDAQ-value revelation: Carruthers (WON 6-1) was 9.0 on the exchange in his analysis of morning offers for the West Wales National.
HE LAYS THE FALLEN FAVOURITE: Otherwise it was a frustrating day of big-odds places, Lord Singer (2nd 8-1) and the nap, Viking Blond (2nd 7 -1). His laying Captain Conan misfired by only a neck but his second lay, Paul Nicholls’ Keppols Hill (fell 15-8 favourite), came off.
CHELTENHAM COMES TO MUSSELBURGH: With races named after their magical Cheltenham options, horses running at Musselburgh this afternoon can be Arkles for a day under a brilliant scheme by the Edinburgh track.
The long faces of Paul Nicholls and Dan Skelton caught by the Channel-4 cameras told it all yesterday. That was before Keppols Hill fell. After Toubab had finished last of eight in the opener at Sandown. Two days on from the appalling performance by Michel Le Bon, pulled up on his home track, Wincanton.
That’s only three of the 17 Nicholls’ favourites unsighted for just two bumper winners on the scoresheet after mid-January; nothing over hurdles or fences since Fago 24 days ago.
The Ditcheat contingent still standing yesterday finished – four of them – a total of 94 lengths behind the respective winners of their races.
No wonder Ruby Walsh stays at home at Punchestown today, as Nicholls tries to make a fist of it at Musselburgh and the bookies plan a three-time lay against the Ditcheat runners.
1.00 Musselburgh (Scottish Arkle Novices’ Chase) One major change over past weeks is the going on the Edinburgh track: forecast good to soft, with drying winds. That alone should guarantee some turn-ups.
So it is that Overturn gets his ground, with Don McCain daring: ‘I see no reason to be afraid of Simonsig’ at Cheltenham.
The chips are down but the wheel of fortune is unlikely to struggle with this result: on all known form an odds-on Overturn should indeed turn over this small field.
The one needle in the form stack that would niggle me if I was counting out the mortgage money for a full-on tilt is that Nicky Henderson’s Tetlami is unexposed as a Graded-level hurdles animal returning with a facile chase win after a wind operation.
Whatever happens today, Henderson of the frozen visage will know more about the difference between Simonsig and Overturn through Tetlami.
He looked absolutely petrified (as in ‘turned to stone’) before Captain Conan’s last-gasp win yesterday. Despite all the excuses afterwards, I say forget this beast for Cheltenham; I was unlucky not to collect on my lay, with Third Intention throwing in the towel on the run-in.
1.30 Musselburgh (Albert Bartlett Scottish Trial) The bookies’ antennae will be trying to read Aerial signals from Camp Ditcheat. Can Nicholls get one under the radar today or has he been shot down for the duration.
There’s certainly something strange in the woodshed, and I wouldn’t punt Aerial with your money, though many of you are punting it with mine and that of our colleagues, as you have him hot favourite on BETDAQ this morning.
What makes this tricky for betting purposes is that only According To Trev has won this far, but he was well behind Aerial at Cheltenham in December.
The others are attacking these Graded performers from low-level country races, though Witness In Court caught the handicapper’s eye at Sedgefield and he’s put him dead level with Aerial on 132.
Witness In Court has to step up another few pounds, giving 6lb to the favourite, but is an unexposed improver (after five races compared with Aerial’s 17 starts) and his front-running tactics are suited to the track.
2.00 Musselburgh (Scottish Future Champions Novices’ Chase) Barry Geraghty picks up a spare after the Tetlami ride, partnering Tap Night, who is expected to stake his claim for a place in the Jewson.
A tilt at the Arkle would require him to beat Attaglance out of sight, as did Overturn at Doncaster last month.
It’s an intriguing contest, with Tap Night winning in a canter at Ayr, as did Desert Cry at Haydock and Viva Colonia over CD at Musselburgh.
The handicapper declines to give Tap Night a rating for that Ayr success, but puts Desert Cry and Viva Colonia on the same mark, after adjustment for the weights today.
That’s how tough it seems, though you’d worry that Desert Cry has drawn a complete blank going righthanded and you’d worry more that Musselburgh is a bogy track for the favourite’s yard: Lucinda Russell has gone 358 days without a winner from 41 starts there.
And here’s a thing: the horse Tap Night beat a short-head in early November was hammered 24 lengths next time out; the horse Tap Night beat five lengths over the same CD last month was destroyed 41 lengths next time out.
Tap Night could still win – they’re all novices – but has to be a lay on his record at the too-short 1.91 this morning.
Meanwhile, the horse Desert Cry’s reputation hangs on – he beat him into second the last twice – is Kudu Country, a major flop at Sandown yesterday. Gimme a bit of 5.5 Viva Colonia, the CD winner whose rating also ranked dead level with Desert Cry over hurdles.
2.30 Musselburgh (Scottish Triumph Hurdle Trial) I turned to the green for a lay on the Nicholls’ beast, but you beat me to it on BETDAQ this morning: Kashmir Peak has leapfrogged the Ditcheat paper-favourite Sametegal in the market, after finishing in front of him at Doncaster on today’s kind of surface.
There’s not much between them at the weights today. Sametegal is just given the advantage, if he can lay the Nicholls’ bogy.
Docs Legacy (11.0 and 3.4 in the orange markets) will pay me odds a place double the Kashmir Peak win odds and he’s yet to be out of the frame: might even win.
3.00 Musselburgh (Scottish Champion Chase) Fourth at the Festival last year, Anquetta has got his ground here and Nicky Henderson will have him wound up (though not wound as tight as his trainer!) as he goes well fresh.
Ciceron is only a level-3, and a bit of a bridesmaid at the moment, though the heavenly Venetia can do no wrong for me (not even with training horses).
Swift Arrow is back to his winning distance but, like Ciceron, is too close in the handicap to Anquetta, who rates the nap unless there’s unexpected rain.
3.30 Musselburgh (Scottish County Hurdle) Mwaleshi and Constant Contact have drifted like dogs on a raft this morning, with the heavily penalized Brick Red strong at the head of the BETDAQ market.
I can’t have Creekside with the stable out of form but Ingleby Spirit (a 6.4 offer) has posted both hurdles wins here, and Calaf (8.8) looks best of the Brian Ellison trio with Harry Derham booked.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5.8pts win WITNESS IN COURT (1.30 Musselburgh)
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY 10pts TAP NIGHT and BET 4.4pts win VIVA COLONIA (2.00 Musselburgh)
BET 2pts win and 4pts place DOCS LEGACY (2.30 Musselburgh)
BET 6.4pts win (nap) ANQUETTA (3.00 Musselburgh)
BET 3.7pts win INGLEBY SPIRIT and 2.5pts win CALAF, with 2.4pts win (stakes saver) BRICK RED (3.30 Musselburgh)
* Daqman’s selections are all backed to win 20 points, except the last race saver which covers the stakes on the main bets.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
