‘NEW TRACK’ COULD LET IN OUTSIDERS AT LUDLOW: Fresh terrain on the inside at Ludlow today may favour right-hand-going sorts at big offers, warns Daqman.
Ludlow boys in their hundreds come. So said the poet and, on members’ day there today, it will seem like a new track. You need a horse – and jockey – to take advantage.
All races have fence or hurdle adjustments and altered bends, so that the inside, generally about eight yards wide, is fresh ground, not used since last May.
So Ludlow boys should be out to spot the horses seeking that advantage when they line up. Don’t forget this is a right-handed track.
I’m looking for a horse which goes right-handed for preference (check out the form): I reckon his bent for the course will be a big asset today, if he can get an inside position and rail round on the new turf.
It will take two or three races for the inside to get churned up, so I’m looking early on, starting with the maiden hurdle (1.00).
Corsican Boy (Kempton) and Orthodox Lad (Salisbury) have both won on the Flat going right. Nova Sam seemed suited by it in France.
In the first chase of the day (1.30), Akarshan and Autumn Spirit have chalked up a total of seven wins from 12 times placed going right-handed; zero wins and just four places racing the other way round.
Then, in the handicap hurdle (2.00), Alwaystheoptimist shows a marked preference for going right (one win and three places, against zero going left); however, Dirty Bertie, Grams
And Ounces, Jolly Roger and Tayarat also like it clockwise.
Later on, note that Guns Of Love (3.00) is quite a specialist at running right-handed; seven times placed for only one going the other way round.
I shall start with a bit on Orthodox Lad (1.00) at 9.2 this morning, as a right-hand-racing horse, who won on the Flat in the autumn and whose trainer-jockey combination has a 25% strike rate, to a good level-stakes return, on this course.
You’d expect the Philip Hobbs’ horses to show but ‘the one most likely to’, Nova Sam, was easy to back when I checked out the Betdaq offers around 8.30 this morning.
The snag with Autumn Spirit (1.30) is that he seems to want a sound surface and morning rain will probably scupper his chances.
Akarshan and Forty Five are both bridesmaids but the three-year younger horse, Akarshan, is a fair bet at 5.6, showing improvement when going down a neck at right-handed Market Rasen when he last ran.
Venetia Williams should know where she stands with topweight Grams And Ounces (2.00): Pepite Rose, fourth behind that one at Leicester, when Venetia’s string was out of form, can be expected to do better: 10.5 on the Daq.
If you are relying on Venetia, you’d have to have a side bet on her Cambridgeshire winner, Credit Swap.
Also better than the bare form is Alwaystheoptimist: 13.0. The switch to the hot stable of Charlie Longsdon’s could see considerable improvement in one I’ve already marked down as a right-hand specialist.
We will assume that Alasi (2.30) is unbackable but Persian Snow (3.30) needs to have sorted his hurdling ability: you choose whether to go in at odds on, or find something win and place at big offers (it’s 12.5 bar two).
Endofdiscussion seemed his nearest rival but has drifted like a lonely dog on a raft, out to that 12.5 threshold as I write.
The dark horses at huge 30.0-plus offers are Cashwell, upped in trip by the stamina stable of Nigel Twiston-Davies, and the German St Leger winner, Val Mondo, another likely to improve now that Venetia Williams is in better form.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.4pts win CORSICAN LAD (1.00 Ludlow)
BET 4.3pts win (nap) AKARSHAN (1.30 Ludlow)
BET 2.3pts win PEPITE ROSE, 1.8pts win ALWAYSTHEOPTIMIST and 0.5pts win (stakes saver) CREDIT SWAP (2.00 Ludlow)
BET 0.6pts win and place on each CASHWELL and VAL MONDO (3.30 Ludlow)
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