DAQMAN NAP STRIKES GOLD IN DERBY WEEK: Daqman took his points score to 255 in a week’s trading on BETDAQ, thanks to his winning nap, Glittering Gold (WON 6-5), at Folkestone.
FIVE WINNING DAYS OUT OF SEVEN: That made it five winning days in the week: last Thursday 25 points profit; Friday 155; Sunday 19; Monday 91; Wednesday 9.
The Derby’s on the bonfire this year. Only nine horses, the smallest field in 105 years, will line up at Epsom on Saturday.
A combination of a wet winter, soft ground in the Spring and firmish going this week has ruined many a horses plans and preparations.
Winners of the Guineas (Camelot), Dante Stakes (Bonfire), Lingfield Derby Trial (Main Sequence) and Dee Stakes (Astrology) face Cavaleiro, Mickdaam, Minimise Risk, Rugged Cross and Thought Worthy. See my ABC Guide .
7.20 Sandown (Henry 11 Stakes) Blue Bajan (2011) and Geordieland (2009) won this at ages nine and eight. Six of the last seven had already won a Pattern race, Listed or Group 3 (one Group 2).
That knocks out Ibicenco, Zuider Zee, Old Hundred and Aaim To Prosper and, barring the class-3 handicapper Old Hundred, there isn’t the cut in the ground they need. The same applies to Ley Hunter. And Askar Tau usually needs a run back.
Despite the short price, I can’t oppose Opinion Poll, with the Times Up camp so badly out of form. John Dunlop has had only two winners in the five months of 2012, and is currently missing strike really badly with form figures of 340232033. Heartbreaking stuff.
7.55 Sandown (Brigadier Gerard Stakes) Sir Michael Stoute had a poor Spring, and it seemed to be continuing into summer – one winner in 17, including three losing favourites – until form figures in the last two days of 3211.
He landed a royal winner yesterday in Glittering Gold, and Her Majesty’s 2011 Derby third, Carlton House, is the obvious one for this, having won the Dante first time out last season.
Colombian and Hunter’s Light are only Listed level (Colombian was probably lucky to grab a Group 3, when the ground was like a bog) and I’m a Dreamer may be the main danger, beaten only a head in a Grade 1 at Woodbine.
She was possibly unlucky – switched then slightly hampered – on her reappearance (Group 2) at the York Dante meeting, and remains a bridesmaid at the highest level (Group-1 and Group-2 form 00423).
8.25 Sandown (Heron Stakes) It was a surprise in each case when Top Offer and Tales Of Grimm fell short of Classic pretentions. Both are in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, but this Heron Stakes is a dead end.
In its running at Sandown, it has produced only two future winners, just one at Pattern level, plus one handicap success.
Its winners are not future Ascot heroes nor do they come here trying to redeem Classic failure: two of the last three had won the Esher Cup on today’s course, the other a Listed at Newbury.
It seems we can assume that all the Top Offer hype was unwarranted, and it may be unwise to go in big on this retrieval mission after his flop, 16th of 18 in the 2,000 Guineas (Redact 10th, Saigon 14th), albeit on different ground. We’ve had nine losers and two winners from the Guineas so far. I’ll risk a lay.
The most likely scorer today is progressive not regressive: the maiden winners Cogito, Irish History and Kahruman ‘could be anything’ though recent maiden success is not what’s wanted here, according to the stats, but winning Spring form at around Listed level by an improver.
Eastern Sun was beaten in what turned out to be a poor Craven, so my suggestion is Stipulate (15.0 on BETDAQ this morning): quickened well to win a Listed in April but couldn’t give his running, bogged down in the mud, in the Sandown Classic Trial.
Tales Of Grimm was being given away on BETDAQ this morning: 4-1 forecast, 9.0 being offered (as I typed that sentence, it went out to 9.4).
DAQMAN’S BETS:
LAY to win 10pts GLENORA GALE (5.55 Wetherby)
BET 5.7pts win TEARS FROM HEAVEN (7.35 Wetherby)
LAY to win 10pts TOP OFFER, and BET 1.42pts win and place STIPULATE (8.25 Sandown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each OPINION POLL (7.20 Sandown) and CARLTON HOUSE (nap, 7.55 Sandown) plus 4 x 3pts win trebles and 1pt accumulator with IBTAHAJ (4.10 Brighton) and TEARS FROM HEAVEN (7.35 Wetherby)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
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