‘VEGA’ BETDAQ VALUE, SAY THE STATS: Daqman’s stats and betting check on Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup reveals a huge 50% bonus on Nadiya De La Vega, if you took the BETDAQ offers.
ABC GUIDE TO SATURDAY’S CUP: Daqman spotted the Nicky Henderson runner at 19.0, though 12-1 with most bookmakers. Here’s Daqman’s ABC guide, showing which horses fit which stats:
A Eight out of the last 10 winners (14 of the last 16) carried 11st 3lb or less but horses rated below 136 don’t win.
B Eight of the last nine winners were aged six or seven
C 10 out of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher, or been placed in the pattern
D 10 out of 10 had won at 20f to 22f
E Seven out of 10 had already won at Cheltenham
F 50% of winners since 1998 were trained by a Pipe
ABCDE Nadiya De La Vega Following in the footsteps of a previous winner of this by taking the key 20-furlong handicap over CD at the October meeting, which cost her an 8lb rise. The mare is young enough to shrug it off but it was her first run for 10 months and she’s vulnerable to the bounce factor.
ABCDE Walkon Enthusiastic sort who goes particularly well fresh. A stone better off for a neck on Cheltenham form with Grands Crus and that was 3m which suited the Pipe grey better than Walkon. Well behind Michael Flips early in the year.
ABD Kingsmere Back-to-back success on the ‘gaff’ tracks but going well at Cheltenham last month when fell two out, leading over course and distance.
ACDE Divers Won the 2011 Centenary Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival (from Quantitativeeasing). Not in the same form since apart from fourth in the Byrne Group Plate at this year’s festival. Said to be back on song despite tailing off behind Nadiya De La Vega over CD last month.
ACDE Finger On the Pulse Third to Nadiya De La Vega last month and has twice finished behind Divers and Quantitativeeasing. One win in 10 since a year off through injury.
ACD Michael Flips Beginners’ chase and class-2 win in the West Country but fourth to Sir Des Champs in the Jewson at the Cheltenham Festival. Remains to be seen whether he can improve on a poor run back.
ACD The Disengager Has gone up 19lb since August, with three wins out of four, including Listed chase at Market Rasen, beating a four-time winner with Tuesday scorer Buck Mulligan behind.
ACE Forpadydeplasterer Hard horse to win with, in frame 18 times without scoring, despite winning the 2009 Arkle at Cheltenham and runner-up in 2010 Champion Chase there.
AD Casey Top Shot up the rankings by beating Grade-1 winner Tranquil Sea in May, when getting a big concession. Carried 7lb penalty well to finish second to Bob Lingo in the Galway Plate.
A Triolo D’Alene Landed chase hat-trick in ordinary events but found out for moderate jumping at the Cheltenham Festival behind Hunt Ball. No evidence that he will go well fresh.
BCDEF Grands Crus Landed hat-tricks as hurdler and as novice-chaser. No match for Big Buck’s in World Hurdle but twice avenged defeat by the Paul Nicholls’ star when slamming the same stable’s hot novice-chasers Sonofvic and Silviniano Conti at Newbury and Kempton late last year before only fourth in the RSA Chase when 6-5 favourite.
BCDE Al Ferof Did a racecourse gallop last Sunday and has ‘bloomed’ (quote unquote Paul Nicholls) in the last three weeks. Five-timer in hurdles and novice-chases but slammed by Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle, sweating up before the start.
BCDE Hunt Ball Beaten only twice in nine outings. Storming win at Cheltenham festival and, though beaten into third, put up a career best, third, when stepped up to Grade 1 in the Aintree Bowl.
BCDE Quantitativeeasing Made up for Centenary defeat by Divers at the 2011 Cheltenham Festival when second in last year’s Paddy Power and then bossing Medermit over CD a month later.
BCD Aerial Has to race 11lb higher than when fourth in the Paddy Power last season but still only six and improved all the while, never out of a place for Team Ditcheat since coming over from France.
BCD Gilbarry Cheltenham form 0F0, latterly behind Nadiya De La Vega last month. Well beaten by Aerial last December and 7lb out of the handicap here.
BD Questions Answered Improved in autumn Nationals, both over 3m on heavy – second in the Kerry, third in the Munster – but the handicapper thinks those efforts worth only a total of 6lb rise in the ratings, and 7lb out of the handicap here.
CDE Calgary Bay Only eighth in this last year but then struck form and is 12lb higher now after winning the Victor Chandler Chase and then the Great Yorkshire, an epic January double.
CDE Poquelin Loves Cheltenham. Has had 14 races there all told and is 1212010141U2 on the course in the last three years. Despite top weight, is 7lb lower than at this time last year when unseating in this race (second and fifth previously).
CDE Wishfull Thinking Sixth in this race two years ago but previous win and two seconds at Cheltenham, including runner-up in the Jewson. Good run back recently when second in the Old Road Chase at Aintree, albeit at a distance behind runaway winner.
CE Tanks For That Loves good ground and loves Cheltenham but is stepping up in trip. Won over 2m here and unlucky second over that CD in the Grand Annual, just run out of it, giving 11lb to the winner.
D Jamsie Hall Fourth in the Kerry National and same place again behind Nadiya De La Vega last month: 7lb out of the handicap here.
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ VALUE BET: 6.6pts win (nap) BALLYOLIVER (2.00 Ludlow)
BET 5pts win DORMOUSE (3.10 Taunton)
BET 10pts win MIDNIGHT OSCAR (3.30 Ludlow)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 2pt win doubles and 1pt win treble BALLYOLIVER (2.00 Ludlow), DORMOUSE (3.10 Taunton) and MIDNIGHT OSCAR (3.30 Ludlow)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by stake). A Daq Value bet is one in a race where the overround was 110% or lower at the time of making the selection. Daq Multiples are staked separately.
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