BEVERLEY SURVIVES TWO INSPECTIONS: Six English cards go ahead today, one of them Beverley, after surviving two inspections. Rain created havoc with yesterday’s fixtures and again threatens to change the going around the country this afternoon and this evening.
You need a forecast double up in order to win at the races again today. The two forecasts you need are the weather and the selection. Both must be right. Yesterday trainers got it wrong – there were 63 non-runners – and therefore many punters got it wrong.
Those lucky enough to trade with Betdaq know that they will get the best offers from the early lists over breakfast right until the winning post. It’s not about picking one horse but about getting the race right.
Follow the way of the weather during the day, sticking to value prices and then square up your book nearer the time of the race when you know the conditions and the non-runners.
Better offers taken in the morning will shorten up, as non-runners reduce the field or rain changes the picture, which means you are left with plenty of easy options on the Daq. Lay off. Cover your stakes. Get out. Whichever applies.
Only with exchange betting can you correct your assumptions by tracking the conditions, following the market, laying your own bets, or backing your own lays, because of a change of circumstances.
In theory today, Goodwood, Stratford and Newmarket is expected to be ‘good’ with Chepstow on the easy side of good; but, remember, they have watered at Newmarket and Stratford so, if rain arrives, it could quickly get into the ground.
Salisbury is forecast to get more rain than the others and looks the trickiest one to predict, with the ground offically good to firm this morning. Beverley is soft, already a bog in places.
Appointee (2.20 Newmarket) should pay for the day at better than evens as I write. Collateral form suggests she’s a league above these, the first and second on her debut having won Group races.
Like Appointee, Soho Rocks has the Cheveley Park as her target but she’s first time out and you wouldn’t expect James Toller to have the same stable depth of youngsters to choose from as John Gosden.
In fact, Toller has been quiet lately, with just four runners in a fortnight, and there wasn’t a bean for Soho Rocks this morning. The only market threats to Appointee were Paul Hanagan’s mount, Lady Loch (Richard Fahey certainly has a lot of juvenile ammunition), and Besito, both with their form franked by recent winners.
Fahey and Hanagan have two more chances to go back North with a prize: El Viento (4.35) would have to improve to turn around Rowley Mile form with Seal Rock, though has an extra furlong to do so, and was recently involved in a blanket finish at Goodwood over 7f.
The one they wanted early doors was Sea Soldier and you can see why. He turned over odds-on Kawssaj at Warwick before that one trotted up five lengths at Lingfield.
White Frost went clear to win her maiden at Thirsk and looks threatening at the foot of the handicap, while paper-favourite Forjatt has raced over 6f as if screaming for this extra furlong, and was badly drawn last time.
You wonder ‘why the 5lb claimer’ and you are left thinking that connections obviously fear the 18lb they have to give away to the unexposed pair, Sea Soldier and White Frost.
If Forjatt ‘gets buried’ again – he’s dropped 4lb this year- I can see him slotting into a late-season big field handicap at a very nice price. This animal was within two lengths of Wootton Bassett in his fine juvenile season.
Goodwood makes a similar start to Newmarket with a maiden containing a Cheveley Park entry: Sunday Times returns to the CD of a competent-enough start to her career and Peter Chapple-Hyam has won six juvenile races at a strike rate of 26% at around this level.
But there were no winners (so far) in front of Sunday Times that day or – more importantly – behind, and I can’t see why she is odds on over Dance Company (5.2 on the Daq), who ran green and was clearly not expected at 40-1 when third in a big field at Newbury.
If I had to bet at Salisbury, it would be Dead Cool (4.50), dropped back to the trip of her CD double and with a good draw in stall 5, whereas the two morning market leaders Piddie’s Power (poor 1-14 strike rate) and Interakt are in 9 and 12 respetively.
Dead Cool’s 8.4 therefore looked tempting, particularly as the Kyllachy filly has already won on fast ground and in the mud. Very helpful on a day like today.
BET 14pts win (nap) APPOINTEE (2.20 Newmarket)
BET 10pts win SEA SOLDIER and 2.3pts win (stakes saver) WHITE FROST (4.35 Newmarket)
BET 2.7pts win DEAD COOL (4.50 Salisbury)
BET 4.7pts win DANCE COMPANY (4.55 Goodwood)