DUNLOP OZ RAIDER NOSED OUT ON THE LINE (pictured): Ed Dunlop’s Red Cadeaux led everywhere but the line in the final furlong of this morning’s Melbourne Cup, pipped a nose by the French ace, Dunaden (15-2), with Lucas Cranach third. If you missed the race at 4am !! watch it now on BETDAQ TIPS on the right.
WINNER IN FOUR: Daqman had winner and third in his final four for the race but chose the other two for nominated bets. ‘That’s how my luck is running at the moment,’ he said.
ARKLE WINNER MAKES SEASONAL DEBUT: Daqman tries to change his luck at Exeter today, when the Arkle winner, Captain Chris, makes his reappearance. But is it the wrong time of year?
Ghizao 4, Captain Chris 0. That’s the wins tally for today’s clash of two top young chasers in the Haldon Gold Cup (2.50 Exeter). But that’s if you assess only this time of year, November to January.
Captain Chris 6, Ghizao 0. That’s the score for the same two horses between February and May. They seem totally different animals between winter and spring, don’t they.
Captain Chris was hugely progressive until finally capturing the Arkle at Cheltenham, whereas Ghizao seems to have been standing still on the bare form.
But, if you take Cheltenham out of the occasion, Ghizao has a massive 20lb or so in hand of Captain Chris on their running at Newbury in December.
The result is that Captain Chris was easy to back for an Arkle winner at 3.3 on Betdaq this morning, as I write, with Ghizao 3.6, and Ghizao is likely to shorten further as the Pricewise selection for the race.
It means that you can back one and save your stakes with a bet on the other, with the third horse in the market, Medermit, said to be in need of the race.
The way my luck is in the last few days, I can pick the short straw of two every time but it’s my belief that Captain Chris improved immensely between Newbury and Cheltenham, and that he is the ‘wrong’ price for an Arkle winner, particularly with word on the grapevine that he has blossomed during the summer.
Best Mate, Edredon Bleu (twice), Azertyuiop and Impek all carried top weight to win this in four years out of five up to 2006.
Since then younger lightweights have pipped the older favourites, but there are no young improvers at the bottom of the handicap today. The young improvers are Captain Chris and Ghizao.
Champion Hurdle fifth Menorah (3.20), just short of the top bracket over hurdles, has therefore had to switch to fences, and is odds on to start his chasing campaign with a win.
On hurdles ratings, today’s novice-chase allowances bring Sam Winner to within 9lb of Menorah but, on today’s ground, and in a small field with the usual hurly-burly absence, Menorah should be able to use his speed against the raw four-year-old Sam Winner, who is expected to move up to 2m 4f after this.
In the short history of the handicap chase, outsiders between 10-1 and 28-1 dominate the scoreboard; not a winning favourite in sight.
Certainly, if Take Over Sivola remains favourite, it’s a tall order for him, as a four-year-old soft-ground lover who’s having his first run in England. No thanks.
I’m bound to look at course winners Inside Dealer, Diamond Brook and Rockabilly, and at the stables in form represented by Honourable Arthur, In The Zone and Strongbows Legend.
But the one to maintain the run of outsiders might be Seven Days (13.0 this morning), well weighted on his English debut, though I see in my notebook that I marked down Honourable Arthur (12.5) as one for this season. He’s from the yard that won the Gold Cup at Ascot on Saturday.
BET 3pts win MAVEN (2.40 Redcar)
BET 8.6pts win (nap) CAPTAIN CHRIS and 3.3pts win (stakes saver) GHIZAO (2.50 Exeter).
BET 1.7pts win HONOURABLE ARTHUR and 1.6pts win SEVEN DAYS (3.50 Exeter)
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