NAP AND 10-1 TREBLE UP FOR DAQMAN: All three of Daqman’s Daq Multiples trio were winners yesterday, producing a profit of 29 points from singles and a double and a 10-1 plus treble, including the nap, Intiba (WON 1-1).
101-1 DOUBLE: It was only on Saturday that Daqman landed a 101-1 double with Jack Dexter (WON 5-1) and Captain Ramius (WON 16-1). Today he sets the scene for the Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket this week.
Looking to future events as you read a race is important. You could find a long-priced winner hidden in the also-rans, though probably not for reasons described in the well-used after-dinner story about the jockey who was told to take things easy with one of his rides.
‘After the race,’ said the trainer, ‘I want you to tell me whether you could have beaten those who finished in front of you.’
On the day, the jockey got a pat on the back from his trainer as he dismounted following a discreet fifth place. ‘Well?’ the trainer asked.
“No problem, guv, I could have beaten the front four, but it’s them boggers behind that would worry me!’
The punter should treat every race on its merits, which is particularly true of looking at key juvenile events for predicting future Classic winners.
There was the famous occasion at Newmarket, probably apocryphal, and oft repeated since, when trainer Bernard Van Cutsem was asked by the Press after leading in a seemingly impressive hotly-hyped two-year-old: ‘What’s the plan?’ Replied Bernard drily: ‘That was the plan!’
It’s hard enough to win one race. And two-year-olds will, or will not, develop.. who knows? You can only be hopeful.
What you can do as a punter is try to determine which races produce Classic winners, or at least yield horses worth following. In both respects, the stats for the so-called top Newmarket two-year-old events this week are not encouraging.
THIS ‘TATT’ IS NOT A GROUP RACE (Thursday): The two-year-old feature of the day is the Somerville Tattersall Stakes. But, though its status was raised from Listed to Group 3 in the year 2000, the record of its winners in the decade is modest, in fact, recently, moderate.
None of the last three winners scored again though they included subsequent seconds in the Craven Stakes and the Free Handicap. So look at the runners and say: this is their race, maybe their swan song.
Don’t look at it as though you are trying to find a three-year-old for next season. By the way, penalties have not been carried successfully this century.
This year’s three-year-olds have come in for some stick this season – unfairly at handicap level, I believe – and they are four out of five in the (Listed) Princess Royal Stakes.
ANOTHER NOT-SO-SHARP GROUP 3 (Friday): We’ve seemingly got the really big time for juveniles on Friday, with the Fillies’ Mile and the Oh So Sharp Stakes, also for fillies.
I shall be interested to see which one Peter Chapple-Hyam chooses for one of my horses to follow, the Albany Stakes runner-up, Agent Allison.
However, the Fillies’ Mile hasn’t been that good since Soviet Song won it in 2002. After that came a 1,000 Guineas third and winners of the Ribblesdale and Coronation Stakes but the last two renewals have produced nothing.
Again you’ll find that this is the race the trainer wants to win, regardless of the future: nine out of 10 winners are from the first three in the betting.
The Group-3 Oh So Sharp Stakes is – to be blunt (pun intended) – a path to the poorhouse if you follow its winners. In the last 10 years they have run 61 races for just five further scorers, at best a single Listed success.
IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF FRANKEL (Saturday): The Royal Lodge Stakes has produced Derby winners – Shirley Heights, Benny The Dip (he was the last one in 1996) – and in recent times certainly seems to give you the best chance of finding a horse to follow.
Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden are the leading trainers in the race, always an indication that there’s something from the cream on top of the milk, or at least a good guide collaterally.
The subsequent UAE Derby winner Daddy Long Legs won it last year, following Frankel in 2010 (I haven’t the room to list all his subsequent successes!) and before that the Woodbine International and Irish St Leger winner, Jukebox Jury.
Possible runners are Eye Of The Storm (O’Brien), who ploughed through the mud at Galway recently, the Solario Stakes winner Fantastic Moon, Champagne hero Toronado, Havana Gold and Unsinkable. All are unbeaten so far in completed races.
* TOMORROW: I’ll take a look at the Cambridgeshire runners tomorrow.
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each and 5pts win double ALTHAROOS (3.40 Beverley) and ROYALE KNIGHT (nap, 4.50 Newton Abbot), plus 2pts win treble the same two with SRINAGAR GIRL (4.40 Beverley)
BET 1pt win and place ROMANCE DANCE (5.20 Newton Abbot)
BET 3.4pts win DEAN IARRACHT (5.40 Beverley)
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