FOUR LAYS UP OUT OF FIVE: Daqman yesterday devoted most of his column to knocking paper-favourite Meglio Ancora (3rd 3-1) and was rewarded with his fourth winning lay from five this year.
PROFITABLE START TO THE YEAR: Those lays have made a profit of 20 points, his jackpot bets are 29 points up for 2013 (two winners at 5-1) and his sole runner from the horses-to-follow list has won. After five winning naps, his daily best bets are just 6 points down in the first 20 racing days.
Punters, beware of the wolves at Wolverhampton! They are called bookmakers. And they performed quiet commercial savagery on the betting market yesterday from the word go.
In the very first race, which had a 105% probability total of BETDAQ offers at the time I was making my selections for this column (see Archive), the bookies managed to return a gross ‘120 SP Total Percent’, according to the trade paper this morning.
They did the wolfing-your-money trick again two races later – spot on 120 – and the SP market was always above 110% at the meeting, whereas the four races I bet in (see Archive) were all on that mark or much lower, as I reported at the foot of my column.
So were five races at Wolverhampton this morning by 9 a.m., and so were four at Lingfield, as I searched for another winning nap.
The Wolver track was riding deep yesterday, and Exkaliber (3.40) – out of an Efisio mare – looked a likely winner, backed in to head the market with trainer Jeremy Gask in form.
Gask, who landed me a Saturday nap with Toga Tiger, has won three races with eight starters in the last fortnight, all when well fancied: if you had reduced your bets to those under 10-1 in the market, your results would have been 1101.
Gask has a worthy favourite for the last in Precision Five (5.10), with Joe Fanning an eye-catching jockey booking for both runners.
Precision Five comes on here after winning for the second time on the firmer surface at Lingfield recently but, if he takes after his grandsire, Bishop Of Cashel, he won’t have a problem with today’s deeper Poly.
Lingfield has brought out top trainers. John Gosden, William Haggas, Kevin Ryan, Ed Dunlop and Marcus Tregoning all declared horses overnight but all bar Ryan swerve the big prize, the £12,000 class-2 sprint (1.50).
Ryan’s Bajan Tryst is well treated now, better off with Swiss Cross on two autumn runs and that one, in turn, could turn around recent form with the favourite, Woolfall Sovereign.
As ever in these sprints, it depends how the race is run but, in fact, Bajan Tryst has scored from a long way back and, I remember at Dundalk, made virtually all the running. The 8.2 this morning in 107% orange list was tempting.
The 1m 4f handicap (1.20) is the next best race (class 4) – another in my Daq Value parameter – and another this week where the favourites are suspect.
Cayuga and Harry Buckle are both winners at 10 furlongs and, at 8.2 bar the two, I fancied looking elsewhere for a horse that seemed guaranteed to place at least.
In an eight-runner race, the 10.0 Solfilia within a punter-friendly 106% orange looked value win and place (150% place profit potential), as one dropped in class from Listed level.
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ VALUE: BET 2.2pts win and place SOLFILIA (1.20 Lingfield)
DAQ VALUE: BET 2.7pts win BAJAN TRYST (1.50 Lingfield)
DAQ VALUE: BET 7.2pts win (nap) EXKALIBER (3.40 Wolverhampton)
BET: 8.3pts win PRECISION FIVE (5.10 Wolverhampton)
* All bets are staked to win 20 points. Daq Value indicates punter-friendly races with a total probability this morning of between 105% and 110%.
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