THE NAP IS NO FOOL AT KEMPTON: Daqman, who has had 12 consecutive naps in the frame, takes the obvious route: a horse at an each-way price in a BETDAQ race at Kempton tonight. April Fool is six times a winner on the course.
Bad-weather jumps favourites are having a lean time of it. All seven were beaten on the heavy ground at Ffos Las yesterday, and it will be a shame if the form of Newbury’s novice races today is spoiled.
The juvenile hurdle (12.50) has thrown up Detroit City and Pancake in recent years, the novices’ hurdle (1.55) has been won by Mad Max and Trabolgan, and the novices’ chase (1.20) by both Big Buck’s and Finian’s Rainbow.
Nicky Henderson, responsible for both Mad Max and Trabolgan, saddles Ericht in that race, highly tried in Graded ranks but who has had to resort to low-level novice events to get a win.
I was more impressed with Alan King’s Uxizandre (1.55), who beat two last-time-out winners over today’s course and distance in December. The handicapper currently ranks them a pound apart but Uxizandre is the least exposed.
Imperial Leader’s Southwell success and fair fourth at Cheltenham earned him an official rating 7lb or 8lb in front of the Uxixandre and Ericht, and the race has worked out well.
Ruby Walsh is at Newbury for the one ride, Fago (1.20), who has Colour Squadron to beat. Nothing else was being backed this morning, and I’ll double Fago with my Kempton nap.
2.25 Newbury (Harwell Trophy) This will take some getting: four of the last five winners had won or been placed beyond 3m. None were aged in double figures.
If those stats worked out, that would narrow the field to Time For Spring, Allthekingshorses, Barlow, Ringa Bay and Goring One. Yet the quintet showed at 13.5 or bigger on BETDAQ this morning.
Time For Spring has never managed a win above a 122 rating; Allthekingshorses has been beaten 50 lengths in his two runs back; and this is a step up in grade for Barlow and Ringa Bay.
But Goring One was runner-up to five-time winner Pete The Feat at Folkkestone. He was getting a lump of weight from Plein Pouvoir at Wincanton and it was the way he ground out the race that impressed me with today’s stamina-sapper in mind.
Monkerty Tunkerty and Mountainous both won in December, both in class-3, but that means they have to give a stone-and-a-half to Goring One, who looks ‘big’ at 15.5 on the Daq.
Follow the usual suspects at Kempton this evening. Comments for previous winners of all four BETDAQ-sponsored races contain a similar clue: ‘Had raced at Kempton before’.
Significantly, the last three of those four races have been won consistently by top-weights.
4.15 Kempton (Free Entry Every Wednesday For Betdaq Members Handicap) The 2012 winner of this had failed to reach the frame in five previous tries at Kempton. In fact, all past winners have course experience in common.
Last year’s scorer, Querido, will have been laid out for the race again, off a pound lower mark. He’s won 7lb higher on turf since then.
4.45 Kempton (Win Big With Betdaq Multiples Claiming Stakes) All past winners carried 9st 1lb or more, and all had previously run at Kempton.
April Fool is back on the course for the first time since May last year. The handicapper has taken a chance dropping him a stone lower than he was that day. His Kempton form-figures before that were 3130111201031.
Though it was still not 8 a.m. when I checked out the BETDAQ offers, the list in the orange added up to only 108%, so I was happy to take some 5.3 April Fool, knowing that I was in a punter-friendly market.
5.15 Kempton (Back And Lay At betdaq.com Handicap) Previous winners came from the top of the handicap and had raced at Kempton before.
Fairyinthewind, Diplomatic and Breakheart have won at this class-5 level and all three are course and distance winners. With a claimer on board, Breakheart was easy to back this morning at 8.8.
But to say that trainer Andrew Balding is the man in form is an understatement: his horses are running to 92% of their potential, according to figures in the Racing Post.
A quite remarkable 13 of his last 15 runners have finished in the frame, four of them winners, including Breakheart over CD at the turn of the year.
Whispering Warrior looks a big threat, seemingly transformed by his change of stables to David Simcock’s Newmarket yard.
5.45 Kempton (Betdaq Games £50 Hard Cash Bonus Handicap) No previous winner has carried more than 9st. All were well known faces at Kempton.
It’s a pinstickers’ race but the stats suggest that Rosa Lockwood is overpriced at offers of 15.5 this morning. In her first handicap today off a low mark, and steadied on her run here in December. Win-and-place claims.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 10pts win UXIZANDRE (1.55 Newbury)
BET 1.3pts win and place GORING ONE (2.25 Newbury)
BET 5pts win QUERIDO (4.15 Kempton)
BET 4.6pts win (nap) APRIL FOOL (4.45 Kempton)
BET 2.5pts win BREAKHEART and 1.6pts win (stakes saver) WHISPERING WARRIOR (5.15 Kempton)
BET 1.3pts win and place ROSA LOCKWOOD (5.45 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double Fago (1.20 Newbury) and April Fool (4.45 Kempton)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points, except in Daq Multiples.
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