11 WINNING BETS IN TWO DAYS: Daqman has bounced back to form this week, with 11 winning bets in the last two days, including yesterdy’s runaway winner, Maid In Rio (WON 5-2), after a banker on Profitable the day before. Can he follow-up these spot-on headlines:
Thursday:
PROFITABLE START TO SANDOWN
Friday:
JUST MAID FOR THE BROWN JACK
LATEST SCORE: DAQMAN 50, PRICEWISE 18: Daqman’s Bull’s-Eye Bets are showing a profit of 146 points and he leads Pricewise 50-18 on the Flat in his challenge to the Racing Post column.
ABC BIG-RACE GUIDES: Check out Daqman’s ABC guide to the King George (Tuesday in the Daqman Archive). The top seven in an ABC guide to the International are listed below.
EAGLE TOP OF THE KING GEORGE
3.50 KING GEORGE 1-2-3: Eagle Top 1, Magician 2, Taghrooda 3
Rain could be the kingmaker today. The changeable ground has been a nightmare for punters since Royal Ascot – it ruined a classic Eclipse – and yesterday’s sudden downpour turned ‘good to firm’ to ‘good to soft’ in no time.
But we punters who have suffered, would we change places with owners and trainers, preparing for the firm and getting soft!
Again today, we simply don’t know until King George hour what the weather will bring, whether the ground will dry in the sunshine or be sodden by another storm.
OUT of calculations must go Telescope, who is on the wrong end of yesterday’s turn-around, loving it firm, less attractive on an easier surface. His Hardwicke was impresssive but he’s not the only one who could have slammed Hillstar seven lengths.
Magician has scored on all sorts of ground but prefers it fast and his one big win over 1m 4f was the Breeders Cup (Turf) when he was one of few to handle the Chester-like turns of Santa Anita.
IN with a big chance now Eagle Top, trying to do a Nathaniel, John Gosden’s five-times-raced 2011 winner. Eagle Top is a full-brother by Pivotal to soft-ground Park Hill winner, The Lark, but he’s run just three times.
THE STATS Rain shouldn’t worry Taghrooda, a Sea The Stars filly out of a Sadlers Wells mare, but she, too, has run only three times. A filly has not won since 1983 and a three-year-old has won only once in a 10-year domination by four-year-olds.
THE FORM Her form took a knock when the Epsom Oaks placed behind her, Tarfasha and Volume, were both beaten by Bracelet in the Irish Oaks.
Trading Leather has ultra-consistent form, including second in this last season, and he’s back to his best trip (won the Irish Derby of 2013) but he, too, loves firm ground and his form of 22332 in the last 12 months smacks of a nearly horse who is likely to place again without showing the winning surge.
VERDICT: Trading Leather now looks best of the older horses without inspiring a bet, unless the ground dries and there is no more rain, then Telescope and Magician have much better chances.
I can only make my forecast as the ground as known at the time of writing, on the soft side of good, which favours the two Gosden improvers, Eagle Top and Taghrooda, the pair likely to be split by either Magician or Telescope.
AYAAR FRANKIE! HE’S THE ASCOT ACE
3.15 Ascot: ABC Key
A Aged four or five (10/10)
B Royal Ascot runner (76%)
C Placed in big field (87%)
D Set no more than 9st (6/8)
E Drawn high (if Royal Ascot trend continues)
3.15: INTERNATIONAL 1-2-3: Ayaar 1, Abseil 2, Watchable 3
ABCDE Abseil
Stone last when, hooded first time, favourite for the Bunbury Cup on a slippery surface at the July Meeting. Had earlier disappointed as Royal Hunt Cup favourite but baulked in his run that day. Could bounce back at a ‘big’ 20.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
ABCDE Bronze Angel
Cambridgeshire winner, quiet after – so, too, the stable – until close up at Newbury Spring Meeting and fourth Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. Confirmed his return to form with convincing win at York but now back to a high mark.
ABCDE Fort Bastion
Consistent this year, the (Group 3) Acomb Stakes placed juvenile has won the Thirsk Hunt Cup, been close up in the Hambleton and Seaton Delaval and was finally fourth the Bunbury Cup. Yesterday’s rain helps.
ABCDE Pacific Heights
From a yard that usually picks up a good handicap somewhere in a season. Not out of first four in 10 starts after debit. Stepped up to win class-2 handicap at Chester in the Spring (soft) and not disgraced in the Royal Hunt Cup (fast ground), five lengths off the lead.
ABCDE Watchable
Jockey booking of Richard Hughes catches the eye after his third in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, better off here with winner, second and fourth, Louis The Pious, Horsted Keynes and Bronze Angel, and so lightly raced could improve no end.
ABCD Ayaar
Victoria Cup fourth in the Spring over today’s CD, inconvenienced by softish ground and slow-run race, badly hampered – fifth – in the Royal Hunt Cup. Stable very capable with lightly raced handicappers from this time of year.
ABCD Don’t Bother Me
Down the field in Victoria Cup but better effort at Newmarket next time and running on nicely in the Wokingham as if today’s trip would suit. Better than the bare form and any more rain a bonus.
VERDICT: Watchable could show the improvement on his Royal Ascot run, now ridden by Richard Hughes. Ace rider of Ascot, Frankie Dettori, has the perfect mount in Ayaar, if the low draw doesn’t count against him.
Bronze Angel, the Tregoning meal ticket, will probably try to use his stamina and play catch-me but there’s a lot of pace on high, which will help Abseil to settle.
GROUP-ENTERED MOOHAARIB IS THE NAP
1.30 Ascot Team Hannon, looking for a hat-trick here – it’s 2012 winner was Toronado – has always had The Queen’s Peacock in mind for a royal winner on King George day.
Clive Cox, who scored with a two-year-old maiden, Profitable, at Sandown on Thursday, has another top-class one here in Coventry fifth, Kodi Bear, all the rage this morning.
The Hannons should know where they stand with Mujhaarer, who was behind their Ivawood in the July Stakes.
2.05 Ascot (Princess Margaret Stakes) Winners of this usually go to post with two or three runs under their belt, but Muraaqaba was touching off Osaila at the head of the morning market on BETDAQ.
I will sit this one out, with all bar Pastoral Girl (Lowther) entered in the Cheveley Park Stakes. I’ll back the winner of this that day!
2.40 Ascot American Hope and Moohaarib (6.8 on BETDAQ as I write) have Group entries and the Marco Botti runner looks the one, with Mange All likely to set a cracking pace for him.
3.30 York Dash The pace seems to be in the low stalls and David Marnane, still convinced that Zalty (gate 2) can win a big race, has Connor King’s claim to give his four-year-old 7lb with which to turn around a Curragh half-length with Line Of Reason.
A good run by Heavy Metal in the International would be a pointer to Out Do, and Muthmir was unlucky at Newcastle, giving weight to the winner and beaten only a neck after missing the break.
DAQMAN’S BETS (win 20, unless otherwise stated)
BET 5.6pts win PEACOCK and 3pts win (stakes saver) KODI BEAR (1.30 Ascot)
BET 3.4pts win (nap) MOOHAARIB (2.40 Ascot)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (win 50): 4.6pts win WATCHABLE, 4pts win AYAAR, and 2.5pts win and place ABSEIL (3.15 Ascot)
BET 3.5pts win MUTHMIR and 2.5pts win ZALTY (3.30 York)
BET 5pts win EAGLE TOP (3.50 Ascot), to win 20 and cover 3.5pts loss ante-post (Flintshire withdrawn, temperature).
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