BANKER DOUBLE: 9 NAPS IN 12 DAYS: Daqman landed back-to-back bankers yesterday through Montsarrat (WON 4-6), making six from the last nine. He also tipped Steve Prescott (WON 9-2). The bankers sequence is included in nine winning naps in the last 12 days:
WON 5-4 Bachasson
WON 1-2 Long Dog (banker)
WON 2-5 Solow (gold banker)
WON 5-4 Time To Inspire
WON 11-8 Shalaa (banker)
WON 9-4 Dartmouth
WON 5-4 Imtiyaaz (banker)
WON 4-7 Shahbar (banker)
WON 4-6 Montsarrat (banker)
DAQMAN LEADS PRICEWISE BY 62: Today Daqman bids for an 85% strike rate with his lays, and he takes on Pricewise of the Racing Post for value in the Ascot 1.30, 2.05, 2.40 and 3.50, plus Haydock 2.20. Current scores:
* Daqman 73, Pricewise 11
* 16 lays up out of 19
* 6 bankers out of 9
* 9 naps in 12 days
SHERGAR CUP: GET BEHIND GREEN DOOR
12.55 Ascot (Dash) This is a hard day for betting at Ascot, where favourites have a 30% record but, with the foreign jockeys a punting spanner in the workings of the form, the success rate drops to 22% at this meeting, with only 11 outright favourites winning from 49 races in the history of the Shergar Cup competition.
Andrew Balding and Robert Cowell have both scored twice in this in the last five years, and Balding runs one of his past successes, Dungannon (2011). There’s been no winner over the age of five.
Double Up, to be ridden by Aussie Blake Shinn, beat the 2012 winner of this, and had Secretinthepark and Indescribable behind, when scoring over the Ascot CD in July, and beat Boom The Groom at Goodwood.
‘Secret’, a winner only over 6f and 7f, is a real test for the other Aussie riding today, Kerrin McEvoy: can he get him going in time? Dutch Masterpiece and Justice Day need a bit of cut in the ground.
I shall punt sprint ace trainer Robert Cowell, who not only saddles Secretinthepark but also former Flying Childers winner Green Door, a Group performer for Olly Stevens last season, and ready to bounce back for his new yard I dutched them at 8.8 and 9.8 on BETDAQ, worried about Double Up.
1.30 Ascot (Stayers) Ian Williams had back-to-back success (2011-12), both well supported but then so have all winners of this, the best race for favourites, four outright and one joint successful, and nothing bigger than 8-1.
No winner has been older than six, which is a black mark against the Williams hope, Teak, but, as the wag said, no one’s told the horse, and he’s a guaranteed stayer, where as nine of those declared have ever won on turf beyond 1m 6f. Strange one.
Seven of the remaining nine after defections this morning are spanned by only four points in the orange.
Our Gabrial (10.5 offers taken) beat the very smart Astronereus in the Classic (3.15) last year at this time and was narrowly beaten over 2m at Chester, giving 16lb to Wordiness. Now gives 2lb.
2.05 Ascot (Challenge) Not much to go on. Four-year-olds (six) and two aged five have won in the nine years, and it’s a tight handicap: only 7lb between top and bottom.
The fillies Elbereth and My Spirit, huntress for black type in Listed races, are both dropped in grade and I dutched them at 6.4 and 9.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
2.40 Ascot (Mile) Again, only one over the age of five has scored and all winners were fairly well backed.
Master The World will need a lot of kidology from Pat Smullen. Red Avenger is a once-a-year winner and Melvin The Grate’s sole turf success was on soft. Halation has a wide draw.
Hayley Turner’s mount, Unforgiving Season, has only just started his season, in fact, and could be dangerous but it would be his first win on turf.
Earth Drummer is back nearer his winning trip and, though it’s his first run of the campaign, handicap trainer-of-the-season David O’Meara is bullish (7.4 on BETDAQ as I write)
3.15 Ascot (Classic) Mark Johnston has won this twice and two years ago proved that 10st could be carried to victory.
It’s a very hard race but I’ll take the colts over the fillies and the class-5 geldings, Percy Veer, Polarisation and Skiddaw Valleys.
That leaves me with top-weight My Reward, the maiden Havisham and Shell Bay (at 8.4) who looks well in here on his Goodwood third to stablemate Tashaar.
3.50 Ascot (Sprint) Roger Charlton is the trainer to watch, with two successes since 2007, and his Acolyte is ridden by the French Graham Lee, the dashing Vincent Cheminaud, who has made the successful switch from the jumps.
Acolyte is the one among them all in this who has to step up in grade but has been winning with ease on AW.
Betdaq’s own Hayley Turner won this one in 2009, but Squats has so far failed to recapture his form of last year.
Roudee is hard to win with, while Grandad’s World needs to be caught fresh, and both Moonraker and Jelly Monger haven’t scored since their maiden, always a bad sign,.
Desert Force and Midlander both like to lead, while Primrose Valley (7.2 taken) wasn’t far behind one of the finds of the season, Magical Memory, at the July Meeting.
For an outsider, I fancy Norfolk Stakes winner as a two-year-old Baitha Alga. Owners Al Shaqab had their horses tuned up for Goodwood and this one could bounce back: 15.0 on BETDAQ says give it a whirl.
SHERGAR CUP RESULT (bets staked to win 20 points): top jockey Graham Lee; winning team The Girls. Daqman’s bets are:
BET 2.5pts win SECRETINTHEPARK and 2.2pts win GREEN DOOR (12.55 Ascot)
BET 2pts win OUR GABRIAL (1.30 Ascot)
BET 3.7pts win ELBERETH and 2.5pts win MY SPIRIT (2.05 Ascot)
BET 3pts win EARTH DRUMMER (2.40 Ascot)
BET 2.7pts win SHELL BAY (3.15 Ascot)
BET 3.2pts win PRIMROSE VALLEY, and 1.4pts win and place BAITHA ALGA (3.50 Ascot)
YASMEEN FINALLY GETS HER BIG CHANCE
2.20 Haydock There hasn’t been a winning favourite in nine years. Three-year-olds have won four times in the decade but not saddled with more than 9st 1lb, and only one older horse has won with more than 9st 2lb.
The 10.0 BETDAQ offer Green Light is in the stats slot, now getting a stone from Sennockian Star on their first and fourth at Chester in June.
Festive Fare, fourth to Golden Horn in the Feilden in the Spring, could be better than the bare form, but last year’s Acomb Stakes third Basateen has to be backed, based on his recent return at York.
3.25 Haydock As three-year-olds go for a four-timer in this, Roxy Star is a filly on the upgrade for the stable that won it last year but I fancy Yasmeen is a hidden horse.
Narrowly beaten at the York Dante meeting, she was down the field in the Coronation stakes at Royal Ascot (Group 1 so drops four grades today) and was confounded by soft ground on the last day: 6.2 this morning
3.35 Newmarket (Sweet Solera Stakes) Team Hannon’s strike rate has dropped alarmingly in the last week to 2-23 and Marenko drifted this morning like a lonely dog on a raft well over the betting weir to 13.5.
If anyone’s worse it’s Brian Meehan (Blue Bayou) with 24 consecutive defeats, badly missing strike with five seconds from his last seven starters.
Fireglow has plenty to find with Blue Bayou, but Hawksmoor was impressive on the Polytrack at Kempton.
However, this race has long been a Godolphin nest-egg for the future and my man in the long grass advises a nap on Bint Al Reem (5.0 on BETDAQ), returning to the scene of her CD-winning debut.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points)
BET 6.5pts win BASATEEN and 3.3pts win GREEN LIGHT (2.20 Haydock)
HIDDEN HORSE: BET 6pts win YASMEEN (3.25 Haydock)
LAY 5pts win BLUE BAYOU and BET 7.5pts win (nap) BINT AL REEM (3.35 Newmarket)
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