DERBY LONG-SHOT IN THE RAIN: It’s high noon for the Derby; that’s when rain is forecast to start at Epsom, with the area given a yellow thunderstorm warning. Twice in four years (2017 to 2020), Aidan O’Brien outsiders (25-1 and 40-1) stole the race, and Daqman opposes the favourite with one today.
⚠️ PUNTERS WARNING! Vital you check the runners and BETDAQ offers every hour from 12 until the Derby start for non-runners, closers and drifters.
*BETDAQ (103%): 3.75 Delacroix, 5.9 Pride Of Arras, 9.2 Ruling Court, 10 The Lion In Winter, 12 Lambourn, 14 Midak (10 a.m. offers)
IT’S LAMB’S TO THE SLAUGHTER
⭕ 3.30 Epsom (The 2025 Derby): Daqman’s order-in
1: LAMBOURN The winningmost Derby trainer and the most successful draw combine today: Aidan O’Brien (nine strikes) and stall 10.
The horse is Lambourn (pictured below) 11.0 on BETDAQ this morning, son of English and Irish Derby winner Australia.
He’s a soft-ground winner. The track is right (he won the Chester Vase going away).
And he has only a couple of lengths to make up on Delacroix on Ballysax form over shorter.
2: DELACROIX The Ballysax was one of two 10-furlong wins for the Derby favourite, from which he has stood still off a rating of 116.
He is sired by Dubawi, who has yet to have a Derby winner; mainly gets 1m and 1m 2f stars, though Postponed and Rebel’s Romance were stamina exceptions.
But he will need ‘extra’ because he must be manoeuvred from stall 14. Ryan Moore can do it if anyone can, as we saw with a brace of brilliant rides on Jan Brueghel and Minnie Hauk yesterday.
3: MIDAK is drawn low in 4 but is supplemented and the dam was a stayer by a Derby winner.
Unbeaten for rising star French trainer Francis-Henri Graffard, who lost a pot at Epsom yesterday when Calandagan was beaten for courage by Jan Brueghel.
4: PRIDE OF ARRAS Won the leading trial, the Dante at York, but is drawn 16, from which no Derby winner has ever emerged.
A tough call for burgeoning trainer Ralph Beckett, who has Stanhope Gardens – only a neck behind Delacroix over a mile – drawn in another bogey stall, 2. Again, no horse has ever won the Derby from there.
5: RULING COURT is nicely drawn in 7: seven to 14 have had 10 of the last 12 winners. Rated 121 but ‘does not want significant rain’, says the trainer.
Just a couple of lengths behind the leading two-year-old, 6 The Lion In Winter, last year was hiked 11lb after getting first run on subsequent Irish Guineas ace, Field Of Gold, in the Newmarket 2,000. The Lion is drawn wide in 19 today.
Ruling Court’s sire, Justify, got last year’s Derby winner, City Of Troy; and the dam’s sire, High Chaparral, won two Derbys.
SIRONA HAS WON FOR MOORE
⭕ 1.00 Epsom (Princess Elizabeth Stakes) Ryan Moore rides front-runner Sirona, Group-3 placed three times and a Listed winner under him. BETDAQ 8.5 this morning.
Royal Dress was giving a big allowance to the three-year-old Chic Columbine when pipped half a length in the places for this a year ago but both were denied a clear run behind the winner.
Whatever the rights and wrongs of that kerfuffle, Chic Columbine has failed to close the gap and is still 10lb behind her old rival.
Skellet has not been disgraced at Group level and was in winning form at Sandown after her last break.
It’s been a good race for 3yo in the decade (3 wins) and Bermuda Longtail looked so promising when placed at York that she was put up 10lb but her form is on firm.
SCRIPTED FOR PLAYWRIGHT
⭕ 1.35 Epsom (Diomed Stakes) Seven winners in a row were drawn 1, 2 or 3 (from 2016 to 2022).
Ice Max (1), a soft-ground scorer, avoids a penalty for a Group-2 strike last August and loves a turning track.
One-time Britannia winner Docklands (2) has had a Group-1 career (2nd in the Queen Anne) around the world. Acts on soft.
Not disgraced behind Field Of Gold last year and Pride Of Arras this, Royal Playwright (3) is the only three-year-old. By French Guineas and Derby winner but bags of stamina. Betdaq Betting Exchange 6.2.
PROFIT FROM A HIGH DRAW
⭕ 2.10 Epsom (Dash Class 3) High-drawn today, Rubys Profit gave 4lb and a beating to Mademoiselle at Goodwood two weeks back. Worse off now but won unchallenged. BETDAQ 4.3
However, Mademoiselle is drawn on the other side in 5 and is likely to get a tow from front-runner Against The Wind (6). BETDAQ 8.2
⭕ 2.45 Epsom (Dash Class 2) Democracy Dilemma was giving 18lb to Dream Composer when pipped half a length in this last year (good to soft) from stalls 7 and 8. They are low drawn again in 6 and 3. BETDAQ 14.0.
But big-odds winners galore in this race’s history (eight in a row double-figure SPs up to 33-1) suggest we might see Fair Wind bring luck to stall 13. BETDAQ 17.0
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
1.00 Epsom (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 6.5pts win SIRONA
★ 1.35 Epsom (win-50 bull’s-eye nap)
BET 10pts win ROYAL PLAYWRIGHT
2.10 Epsom (win 20)
BET 6pts win RUBYS PROFIT
BET 3pts win MADEMOISELLE
2.45 Epsom (win 30)
BET 2.5pts win DEMOCRACY DILEMMA
BET 2pts win FAIR WIND
3.30 Epsom (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 4.5pts win LAMBOURN
BET 3.75pts win MIDAK
BET (to win 12) 4pts win DELACROIX
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