DERBY BANKER WINS CLIFFHANGER: Daqman continued in classic form yesterday with a banker in the Dee Stakes on his Derby bet Cliffs Of Moher (WON 4-5). In one week, he has stepped up his Flat-season’s winning sequences to:
THREE Classic winners out of three
SIX naps up out of eight
ELEVEN bankers home out of 15
TWENTY wins against Pricewise (score 20-6)
THIRTY-EIGHT points in front of him
CLASSIC ANTE-POST COUPS LAID: Cliffs Of Mohor’s trial victory at Chester gives Daqman big-value ante-post ‘overs’ on the Derby and Oaks from just two bets:
25-1 ENABLE (Oaks, win 100) is now 5.3 on BETDAQ
10-1 CLIFFS OF MOHER (Derby, win 50) 6.8 BETDAQ
PROFITABLE NAP IN DEAUVILLE SPRINT: Today, Daqman bids for a fourth Classic – the French Guineas – with the nap on Profitable in the Deauville sprint, before trying two methods of solving the big-handicap puzzle of the Victoria Cup.
DAVY CALLED IN FOR CONSTABLE
3.10 Haydock (Swinton Hurdle)
Just one horse has carried more than 11st 5lb in 20 years of this race. In fact only two in 40 years.
Evan Williams who won it back to back recently (2013-14) has significantly booked Davy Russell for one he has poised in the perfect stats slot, John Constable (fourth last year and 9.0 on BETDAQ this morning).
He has to reverse Cheltenham form with William H Bonney but came bouncing back at Aintree only to fall when in a winning position at the last under a boy rider.
On a line through Vosne Romanee, there’s not much between John Constable and Zubayr, who was second in the Scottish Chamopion Hurdle and should be placed.
But Philip Hobbs won this with a lightweight two seasons back and he has 10.5 BETDAQ offer Multiculture at the foot of the handicap. He’s won three hurdles out of four but all on heavy, though Hobbs doesn’t seem worried about the conditions.
OH LORDAN! ANOTHER GUINEAS
3.15 Deauville (French 1,000 Guineas)
Is it déjà vu at Deauville? Formerly with David Wachman; moved to Aidan O’Brien; ridden by Wayne Lordan.
No, not Winter, who won the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas, but Rain Goddess, one of three for Ballydoyle in today’s French version, the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches: 12.0 BETDAQ offers this morning.
The Galileo filly ran behind Hydrangea and Winter in the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial and was fourth in the Fred Darling, giving the impression that she needed more time and further to travel.
She is officially a stone behind her stablemate, the exposed Roly Poly who, along with Sea of Grace (needs more rain), was behind the subsequent 1,000 third, Daban, in the Nell Gwybn.
On collateral form, that puts them much further behind Winter than was Rain Goddess at Leopardstown.
The French favourite, Senga, won a recognised trial for this, the Prix de la Grotte, but is a free-going sprint-bred, and I prefer Andre Fabre’s Via Ravenna (6.2 offers), who beat Thais comfortably at Maison’s Laffitte in another top trial, the Prix Imprudence.
* French nap: Fourth in the Abbaye, Finsbury Square now has to give 6lb to Profitable in the Prix de Saint Georges (2.35 Deauville) and so Profitable is napped.
TWIN-SYSTEM CHOICE IS A STAR
Punters are up for the Cup. They love big-field handicaps, burning the midnight oil on the form. It’s a daunting task.
One trick for making comparison easier is called DIVIDE AND RULE: split the race into four or five different ‘races’, then mentally ‘run’ your selections from those ‘heats’ in one finale.
STATS: Another method is to sift the runners by the stats and the stables in form. Let’s try both systems.
4.00 Ascot (Victoria Cup)
STATS: Horses aged four and five (8/10) carrying 8st 13lb or below (8/10) usually win this. Favourites don’t: seven winners out of 10 in the decade had double-figure SPs (10-1 to 25-1).
But the strongest stat by far is the draw: four of the last eight cups have gone to stalls 21-29; three of the remaining four to 1-7.
If you were drawn 21 or higher, you reached the first four 11 times; if you were from stalls 1 to 9, you were 13 times in the first four. A middle draw won only once. Here are those who tick the stats boxes:
Chestnut Fire (5-8-8, stall 8)
George William (4-8-11, stall 23)
Stamp Hill (4-8-9, stall 1)
Taurean Star (4-8-7, stall 7)
The Warrior (5-8-4, stall 25)
DIVIDE AND RULE: Divide the runners into groups: six topweights (cut off line 9st 5lb), then three groups of five (numbers 8-12, 13-17, 18-22) and a final group of six bottomweights
G M Hopkins is still living off his 2015 Royal Hunt Cup win; he needs to shed a few more pounds. Remarkable is 29lb higher than his last winning rating but ran second in the Balmoral in October off a similar mark to today’s.
Squats ran second, 6lb lower, in the International over the Ascot CD at the backend.
Bossy Guest (5-9-5, stall 24) Bossy Guest was three lenfths off the winner in the Royal Hunt Cup and fifth last month in the Newbury Spring Cup.
Zhui Feng (4-9-0, stall 11) is another who is often thereabouts: five lengths off winning the Cambridgeshire; three lengths behind in the Lincoln. First-time cheekpieces could help.
International winner and second in the Bunbury Cup but Heaven’s Guest is seven now and his yard is out of form. Stablemate Withernsea needs some more rain. So does Stamp Hill.
George William (4-8-11, stall 23) was fourth in the Newbury Spring Cup after a slow start and his stable is firing.
Bertiewhittle has won back to back at York in October; otherwise you have to go back to 2011 to find success.
Taurean Star (4-8-7, stall 7) A big scopey three-year-old, he went straight into the winners’ enclosure first time back at four in his prep race for this at Yarmouth, but saves his best form for Ascot and is a hidden horse better than his rating.
VERDICT: Common to both methods of winner-finding inhandicaps are George William (12.5 on BETDAQ) and Taurean Star (10.5), who give me a runner on either side, one in stall 23, one in seven. Bossy Guest is big at 18.0.
AND YET MORE CLASSIC TRIALS..
1.55 Lingfield (Oaks Trial) Camerone, by Galileo out of a Sinndar mare, and The Sky is Blazing, a daughter of Sea The Stars, made my Wednesday list in the article ‘Spot The Oaks Winner.’
That bird may have flown when our big punt Enable won the Cheshire Oaks but you have to keep an open mind and find an alternative before the ‘off’ at Epsom.
2.30 Lingfield (Derby Trial) Cliffs Of Moher was still green in yesterday’s Dee Stakes but the race made a man of him.
Now here’s his stablemate Sir John Lavery, yet another Galileo but otherwise not bred to be a Derby horse.
Cracksman, who runs in next week’s Dante, has been given a boost from his Epsom Derby trial by the second, Permian, and third Bay of Poets, runner-up to Cliffs Of Moher yesterday.
Now the fourth horse home at Epsom, Tartini, from Cracksman’s own stable, tests the form again here.
Chester and Lingfield are pace tests but Tartini is half-brother to a Leger winner so not to be overlooked when the emphasis is on stamina, which probably means that we should nap Sir John Lavery today.
DAQMAN BETS
2.30 Lingfield
BANKER: 20pts win (English nap) SIR JOHN LAVERY
2.35 Deauville
BET 10pts win (French nap) PROFITABLE
3.10 Haydock
BET 2.5pts win and place JOHN CONSTABLE
BET 2.25pts win and place MULTICULTURE
3.15 Deauville
BET 6pts win VIA RAVENNA
BET 2pts win and place RAIN GODDESS
4.00 Ascot
BET 2pts win and place TAUREAN STAR
BET 1.75pts win and place GEORGE WILLIAM
BET 1.25pts win and place BOSSY GUEST
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