DAQMAN NAPS HAT-TRICK: 130 PROFIT! Daqman landed his third consecutive nap, four in the last five days, with back-to-back best bets at Aintree for a profit at the meeting just short of 99 points, making 129.75 in the last three days. The value-challenge score: Daqman 10, Pricewise 6.
Aintree Day 2: profit on the day 50.75 points
WON 6-4 INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN (nap)
WON 5-1 KATEIRA (bull’s-eye bet)
Aintree Day 1: profit on the day 48 points
WON 9-4 GERRI COLOMBE (nap)
WON 5-1 SANS BRUIT BETDAQ 6.5 taken
WON 3-1 IT’S ON THE LINE BETDAQ 5.6 taken
Wednesday: profit on the day 31 points
WON 4-1 MR HOPE STREET BETDAQ 6.0 taken
WON 6-5 NO HALF MEASURES (nap)
Monday: profit on the day 14.50 points
WON 3-1 ROYAL MER (nap)
WON 5-2 CIARA PEARL
KEEP A WEATHER EYE ON AINTREE: Commonsense and the stats in my ABC Guide dictate that bad ground combined with a big weight are a recipe for defeat in the world’s greatest steeplechase but just how bad will it be? The latest is for soft, good to soft in places on the National course.
INCREDIBLE DAY FOR THE IRISH
⭕ 4.00 Aintree (Grand National) Corach Rambler and Nassalam, both high in the weights, and Kittys Light, not known for form on soft, are all the ammunition the Brits have to stop the Irish filling all eight prizemoney places in the £1m Grand National this afternoon.
Corach Rambler, who had a hard race at Cheltenham and is up 13lb on last year’s victory, and Nassalam, raised 16lb for Welsh National exploits, may have forfeited a winning chance.
Noble Yeats is only a pound lower than for his fourth last year off 19lb more than his winning form of 2022.
Vanillier has just 3lb more than when runner-up with a strong finish in 2023, trying to give a pound to Corach Rambler but now getting 8lb.
I’ve already tipped Mr Incredible at 20-1 ante-post to win 100 points. He was well placed last year when his saddle slipped at the 24th and Willie Mullins thinks that, far from spoiling his chance today, his March second in the Midlands National (4m 2f heavy) will have brought him on; it was his first run since Aintree.
A good second string for Mullins is Irish Grand National winner I Am Maximus, now 10lb higher but winner of the Bobbyjo since.
Stablemate Meetingofthewaters, who won the big Leopardstown chase at Christmas, is 11lb worse off with the grey runner-up, Panda Boy.
Past winners of that race don’t win the National, and neither one of the pair is bred to do so. Panda Boy faded from two out in the Irish National.
Latenightpass has twice run well in the Foxhunters over the National fences, and the Mares Chase winner at Cheltenham, Limerick Lace (6lb well in), is related to winning stayers. But the one is old at 11 and the other too young at seven.
Minella Indo, the 2021 Gold Cup winner and 2022 second, hasn’t done a lot since being punished with a rating of 175.
He never pitted that rating against handicappers; now races off 159 and stayed on well in a cross-country the last day but is 11 now. Have Minella Indo (yes) and Mahler Mission (no) won after long lay-offs?
Coko Beach, who has disputed the lead for a long way in the last two Nationals, was dropped to midfield in the Becher in December and went second at the last fence. If he again consents to the new strategy, he could be in at the finish.
GROUNDS FOR CONCERN: Capodanno, Chemical Energy, Eldorado Allen, Foxy Jacks, Fury Road, Galvin, Kittys Light, Stattler and The Goffer are not known for soft-heavy form. Will the ground dry out for them this afternoon?
Betdaq Betting Exchange DAQMAN’S TOP FOUR: 8.9 I Am Maximus, 9.7 Corach Rambler, 16 Vanillier, 20 Mr Incredible
BALBOA LOOKS SET TO BOX ON
TRAINERFORM: Winning trainers on the first two days of Aintree:
Willie Mullins 1213200014P02P1, Emmet Mullins 301, Paul Nicholls 230012330P3P13, Gordon Elliott 1000F4220P0, Dan Skelton 3320P00001232P3F0, Nicky Henderson 14402104, Ben Pauling 1000P2P, Gavin Cromwell 31000, Stuart Edmonds 1, Andrew Hamilton 1.
⭕ 1.20 Aintree (3m handicap hurdle) West Balboa went clear on the run-in to win this race last year but is now a tad higher in the handicap than any previous winner in the last decade.
However, I believe the mare is bred for more glory as a stayer, by Yeats out of a daughter of Flemensfirth.
Red Risk took the lead on the run-in and looked likely to beat him in the Lanzarote in January of that year but West Balboa gamely got back up in the final strides.
Freddie Gingell’s allowance creates a likely turnaround in that form but Red Risk hasn’t done much since that day at Kempton.
Monmiral won the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham, with Cuthbert Dibble third and the 2023 Coral Cup fifth, Bold Endeavour, fourth.
BETDAQ value 3.55 West Balboa, 13 Monmiral
ONE TO DO THE TRIP IN CREBILLY
⭕ 2.30 Aintree (3m 1f Freebooter Handicap Chase) Twig, who likes to lie up in the front rank, was 28-1 when dividing Chianti Classico and Meetingofthewaters in the Ultima at Cheltenham.
Fugitif likes Cheltenham but has been four times out of the frame at Aintree, including twice over shorter at this meeting.
Sam Brown, winner of this race in 2022, has scored twice already this year but, though 12, is now rated higher than he’s ever been.
Crebilly is bred to get this trip and the second in the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival steps up to 3m+ first time.
BETDAQ value 4.8 Crebilly, 12.5 Twig
HEWICK IS A FINAL-FLING NAP
⭕ 3.05 Aintree (3m+ Liverpool Hurdle) To be honest, I get weary of these long-distance hurdles, with the same-old, same-old Champ, Dashel Drasher, Flooring Porter et al taking turns to win.
Sire Du Berlais (yawn) goes for a hat-trick in this (double yawn) but young-blood Botox Has offers Graded form on soft-heavy of 10411. BETDAQ 19.5
Like Botox Has, the improver of the race, Hiddenvalley Lake, winner of the Boyne Hurdle, is a fresh horse this afternoon.
Hewick (14.0 offers) is being discounted as a chaser – won the King George – and not a hurdler, and with moderate form on soft-heavy.
In fact, the going on this part of the Aintree course is said to be good to soft and he won the 2022 American Grand National (brush obstacles) on similar ground.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.20 Aintree (win 12)
BET 4.75pts win WEST BALBOA
BET 1pt win and place MONMIRAL
2.30 Aintree (win 30)
BET 7.75pts win CREBILLY
BET 2.5pts win TWIG
3.05 Aintree (win 40 nap)
BET 3pts win and place HEWICK
4.00 Aintree (win 100 ante-post; win 40, win 30 today)
BET 5pts win MR INCREDIBLE
BET 5pts win I AM MAXIMUS
BET 2pts win VANILLIER
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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