FIVE BANKERS UP OUT OF SIX: It was better betting on BETDAQ yet again yesterday when Daqman landed his banker, the gambled-on Jaleo (WON 8-11), from a fraction of odds-against on the exchange in the morning. It gave him five maximums out of six for an 83% strike rate, with:
WON 4-5 Thistlecrack
WON 1-1 Felix Yonger
WON 2-7 Pain Au Chocolat
WON 7-4 Halo Moon
WON 8-11 Jaleo
SIX OUT OF EIGHT LAYS WIN: He made it three wins from three bets in two races at Catterick with a double whammy through Hainan (WON 7-2), with the favourite Tambura (3rd 5-2) a lay in the same race. His lays are now six out of eight (75%) since the start of the year. Yesterday’s winners:
WON 8-11 Jaleo
WON 7-2 Hainan
WON (lay) Tambura 3rd 5-2
TODAY: FFOS LAS WASHED UP: No racing at Ffos Las – called off after a late inspection but superb action from Ireland with the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown and a class card at Sandown. Daqman leads Pricewise 24-8, as they clash in the 1.55 and 3.40 Leopardstown and the 1.50 and 3.30 Sandown.
TAKE MAKE-ALL MOUCHOIR FOR A TRADE
I’ve got the willies! I’m clutching my wallet and wondering whether it’s really worth the worry of selecting from Willie Mullins’ TWELVE runners in four big races at Leopardstown today.
They amount to more than 40% of the total number of runners in those fields and we’re back in the all-too-common situation where two bankers must both win; just the one gives you a break-even day.
Then you’re left chewing your pencil with the question: Which one? Or both? Or FOUR of them? One weekend Willie has a clean sweep; the next a washout. I’ll wait and see, because his winners can’t be much shorter at Cheltenham, and won’t have much else to beat if they’re winners today!
12.55 Leopardstown Mark your festival card. Our Conor (won at Cheltenham), Unaccompanied (2nd) and Guitar Pete (3rd) were all winners of this in the last five years who were then placed in the Triumph Hurdle.
All bar Best Kept Secret and Lagostovegas are entered in next month’s Triumph, with Ivanovich Gorbatov hot favourite today and clear market leader for March.
As a 1m 7f winner on the Flat, ‘Ivan’, who impressed over today’s CD on the debut over Christmas (Let’s Dance second), should stay on too well for these.
Footpad is only a couple of pounds behind him on a line through Lagostovegas and collateral form with Footpad (first-time hood today) gives Jer’s Girl a chance. I’ll put ‘Ivan’ in my Daq Multiples.
1.55 Leopardstown One of the best trials, won for the last three seasons by Willie Mullins with Champagne Fever and Vautour, who both went on to win Supreme Novices at Cheltenham, and Nichols Canyon, third in the Neptune but who won his next four races, including the Punchestown Champion Novice.
Mullins, who saddles three today, has seen two of them finish behind Tombstone and he’s already beaten Tombstone with Long Dog. So it all looks set up for Bellshill, though the market has them very close together this morning.
I think, after just one hurdle race, Petit Mouchoir (7.4 on BETDAQ this morning) can improve from the front (made all in a Point over 3m) and is the value against Pricewise, while Bellshill tries to roll up the odds in my Multiples.
2.30 Leopardstown Cooldine (2009) and Bostons Angel (2011) took this on the way to winning the RSA. Willie Mullins again has three runners but, though all more exposed than in the hurdles we’ve talked about, there is just 0.15 points between Pont Alexandre and Outlander. Unable to split them.
WARRIOR A WINNER IF HE’S ONLY PLACED
3.40 Leopardstown (Irish Gold Cup) Winners of this are usually ‘nearly horses’, falling just short in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, about fourth or fifth. My focus switches from Willie Mullins to Noel Meade, who trains Road To Riches and Wounded Warrior.
Road To Riches is 13.5 for the Gold Cup (third last year) on BETDAQ, 15.0 for the Ryanair, though Coral go only 4-1.
The Ryanair is a bit short for him but he passed his test for that when opening his season with success in the Clonmel (Grade 2) in November.
What would you do? In a vintage Gold Cup year – Djakdam, Don Poli, Smad Place, Vautour, Don Cossack, Cue Card – you’d surely take on Vautour in the Ryanair. Take a bit of 13.5 before today in case he romps this Irish Gold Cup.
What can stop him? Previous winners of the race, Carlingford Lough and Sir Des Champs, have something to prove on recent form; both Foxrock and First Lieutenant are very hard to win with.
Gilgamboa is emerging slowly from the novice ranks but the one I like for a bit of win and place is the favourite’s stable companion, Wounded Warrior (19.0 on BETDAQ).
This is a Grand National horse (50.0 on BETDAQ for Aintree) who has stayed on well, placed behind Valseur Lido (only two lengths away), Don Cossack and Don Poli. I can see him running up to Road To Riches today at THREE times the favourite’s win odds for a place.
4.15 (Leopardstown Hunters Chase) Two of the last four horses to win this have gone on to capture two Foxhunters at Cheltenham and one Fox Hunter at Aintree.
Like the 2.30, it’s a two-horse race and I can’t split On The Fringe and Two Rockers. Nor can the BETDAQ market, which goes 11.5 bar two.
TWO DOUBLE WHAMMYS AT SANDOWN
1.15 Sandown Winner (Binocular) and second (Celestial Halo) in the Champion Hurdle won this along the way to Cheltenham.
On a day when you can go banko on half a dozen hot favourites and end up in the Mullinsgatawny soup, I’m taking a punt.
I’m laying yesterday’s horse, Peace And Co – a flop first run back – and backing the improver, Rayvin Black (3.2 BETDAQ), who has been made up in the ratings to within 6lb of Peace at today’s weights, and looked a stronger horse when runner-up to The New One.
1.50 Sandown Venetia Williams has won this twice in the last six years but Arthurs Oak was put in his place by Bold Henry here five weeks back.
2.25 Sandown (Scilly Isles Novies’ Chase) Here’s another two-horse affair and, despite his obvious claims, Tea For Two has already been turned over, at least in the market.
Bristol de Mai was new favourite at the time of writing and, if he wins, I won’t get the 9.4 on BETDAQ for the JLT at Cheltenham, so I’d better grab some now, with today’s bet for cover. It’s my second double whammy at Sandown.
3.30 Sandown Big weights don’t win this and I fancy Saroque (7.2) to run them ragged off a low mark after his great run in the Welsh Grand National.
Le Reve (5.7) has won twice on the course and first-time blinkers could bring about a revival. Dutch them.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
LAY 5pts PEACE AND CO and BET 9pts win RAYVIN BLACK (1.15 Sandown)
BET 7pts win BOLD HENRY (1.50 Sandown)
BET 3pts win and place PETIT MOUCHOIR (1.55 Leopardstown)
LAY 5pts TEA FOR TWO and BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) BRISTOL DE MAI (2.25 Sandown)
BET 4pts win LE REVE and 3pts win SAROQUE (3.30 Sandown)
BET 1pt win and place WOUNDED WARRIOR (3.40 Leopardstown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt win acca IVANOVICH GORBATOV (12.55 Leopardstown), BELLSHILL (1.55 Leopardstown), BRISTOL DE MAI (2.25 Sandown) and ROAD TO RICHES (3.40 Leopardstown)
ANTE-POST (to win 50): 4pts win ROAD TO RICHES (Ryanair Chase, Cheltenham, March
ANTE-POST (to win 50): 6pts win BRISTOL DE MAI (JLT Chase, Cheltenham, March )
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