BOSS ‘ROCK’ WAS HUGE AT 7.8 THIS MORNING: Daqman goes nap on Soviet Rock at Newbury today, reckoning he’ll boss the race on ground he loves. He finds 19.5 and 15.0 BETDAQ offers are tempting in the handicaps at Doncaster.
22-1 BETDAQ-VALUE BET IN NECK-AND-NECK FINISH: A modest week by Daqman’s standards continued in frustration yesterday with Forgotten Gold (led, unseated at the last), Mister Impatience (3rd 13-2, beaten short-head and a head) and Spinatrix (2nd 14-1 from 23.0 on BETDAQ) pipped a neck in the last few yards.
1.55 Aintree Quality form wins this, with only one winner among the bottom weights – below 10st 12lb – in the decade but none a stone higher than that, where Mwaleshi sits on top of the handicap, giving up to 21lb to the field.
You have to rely on Jonathan England’s 5lb claim for a front-runner who hasn’t been saddled for 238 days by a stable that’s missing strike with six of its last eight runners placed without winning. No thanks.
Ifandbutwhynot and Deepsand drop back from Graded hurdles but, in both cases, their stable is badly out of form, on the Flat at least. ‘If’ has never won after a long break and, similarly, Deepsand has figures of 2302 first runs back.
Karinga Dancer could be anything. His trainer, Harry Fry, let me down with Rock On Ruby on Sunday but, without the blinkers and with the front-runner dropping out of the race at the last minute, the bet was soon in the dustbin.
Special Catch goes well fresh but Irish raiders Liberty’s Gift and Star Of Aragon look bigger dangers – they were first and fourth at Tipperary recently – though Libertys Gift is another who likes his own way in front and Star Of Aragon hasn’t won since 2011.
2.20 Newbury (Horris Hill Stakes) Once upon a time, this was on a par with the Racing Post Trophy, producing champion European miler Kris, King George winner Kalaglow and the sleekest, handsomest stallion I’ve ever seen, Persian Bold.
All you can expect of the winners nowadays is that they’ll go on and take next year’s Greenham over the same course and distance! As did Lion Cavern, the only winner trained by Andre Fabre, today saddling the Wertheimer colt, Galiway, a Galileo half-brother to six winners.
Richard Hannon, who’s trained four winners since 1989, is triple-handed. Anticipated looks exposed and Day Of Conquest has to raise his game but the unbeaten Piping Rock has had his Salisbury form franked and will like the mud.
Cordite, Lyn Valley and Trading Profit have won when allowed a lead but are all three likely to set things up for Galiway and Piping Rock
2.40 Doncaster Three-year-olds are five out of eight but only one favourite has scored in the decade, and winners have turned up at 28-1, 20-1, 12-1 and 10-1 (twice). How to trap the outsider?
Well, at this time of year, some yards have virtually shut up shop and are still running their horses. I can’t name them but there’s one trainer in another race who clearly advertises ‘I’m just getting a duck-egg on their form for next season’ simply by the odds against his recent runners: no winners in the last fortnight and odds of 66-1, 50-1 (twice), 33-1 (five times), 25-1 (three times), 20-1, and more. ‘Not off’ or what!
David Elsworth landed a gamble in a nursery this week, is on record as saying that Highland Castle needs rain (though he has raced on soft only once) and has booked Johnny Murtagh for the 19.5 offer on BETDAQ this morning.
2.55 Newbury (St Simon Stakes) John Gosden has Thomas Hobson favourite for that 2.40 Doncaster but prefers to put William Buick on Nichols Canyon in this St Simon.
Three-year-olds are three out of four and have won 14 times since 1990, and Nichols Canyon receives 10lb from his nearest market rival, Prince Bishop, twice his age and without a win on turf for three years.
Nichols Canyon (4.4 on BETDAQ this morning) took time to win in the pattern, the turning point coming when the ground became soft. Quiz Mistress also likes plenty of cut and won well at Chantilly but it’s a worry that Hughie Morrison has curtailed all the bold plans for French races that he announced that day.
Sugar Boy (big at 9.8), like Nichols Canyon a son of Authorised, has been lightly raced, and is generally a disappointment, since winning the Sandown Classic Trial. But first-time blinkers and the deep ground could see him bounce back.
3.05 Aintree (Old Roan Chase) Remembered as the preserve of the great grey Monet’s Garden (winner three times between 2007 and 2010).
If it’s a grey day today, it would have to be Walkon, with Alan King posting three winners from his last five runners. Carrickboy is a Silver Patriarch, but comes out in the wash as a bay.
He beat Walkon at Cheltenham but his stable has had a poor start to the jumps season (1-29 for chasers), and Walkon was the ‘moral’ when beaten threeparts of a length, giving a stone, in the Topham Trophy over the big Aintree fences.
Conquisto is a solid performer who suggested he was a Graded chaser when winning at Ayr and was the ‘moral’, just going under to a 20lb difference in weight at Haydock.
His small Louth, Lincolnshire, stable is four-star; Conquisto has done well after a long break before; and he has in–form champion Tony McCoy (when is he not in form?) to do the driving.
Of the youngsters, Saint Are is better than the bare form, and Edgardo Sol, well in now with Wishfull Thinking, was ridden to get this trip at Cheltenham on his first try beyond 18 furlongs, and connections can be more confident today.
Astracad has so far failed to emerge from the novice stage but ran well at Cheltenham last week and today’s flat track will suit.
I can’t help thinking that Walkon will be better over the big fences of Becher, Topham and Grand Sefton, and I fancy Edgardo Sol (7.2 on BETDAQ as I write) and Conquisto (7.4) are a good value combination. Astracad could improve but will have to.
3.15 Doncaster Sprints are a tipster’s nightmare – guessing any draw bias, assessing what will lead, worrying you might be slow away – but we went so close yesterday with the game Spinatrix, after grabbing a huge 23.0 on BETDAQ.
There’s more great value here, with a BETDAQ list of offers around 110% or lower at the time of writing, where the Total SP was a shocking 134% when Jack Dexter won the race last year.
Jamaican Bolt was second, level weights with the eighth horse home, Steps, who had won it the previous year and has been in great form recently, though now a stone higher.
‘Bolt’ is also better off on Yarmouth running with Free Zone who comes out about ‘the same horse’ as Steps on Ascot last month. So past and present form both suggest a good run from Jamaican Bolt, lightly raced this term and with the mud very much in his favour.
Ballesteros is the pattern horse in the race with a penchant for heavy ground, and 15.0 looks big based on his couple of lengths behind Maarek, and another fair effort behind the same horse, in the Abbaye. Valbcheck could improve for blinkers under Ryan Moore.
3.30 Newbury Soviet Rock, who goes like the proverbial bomb when fresh and given his head, could boss this race, which has gone to three-year-olds five years in succession: 7.8 is huge this morning in a 106% ‘book’ of BETDAQ offers.
3.50 Doncaster (Racing Post Trophy) Alongside four Derby winners from the race this century you have to post the flops, like Ibn Khaldun and Casamento, and the strugglers and Group stragglers like Crowded House and Kingsbarns.
Which will it be this year? Well, it was race to bet in this morning with BETDAQ offering 4.2 the field in an amazing 101% list of offers. But bad ground suggests that we steer well clear of the ante-post markets after the race, particularly if there’s a misleadingly easy winner.
The stallion Montjeu has had four winners of this, including on heavy ground, and when Aidan O’Brien saddles three, he wins it (well, three from four). Add these stats together and you get the impressive Curragh maiden winner, Century.
It’s all guesswork but, in a punter-friendly betting environment, 5.8 about the seeming Ballydoyle number one, is the obvious punt.
DAQMAN’S BETS (All bets staked to win 20 points at morning offers on BETDAQ)
BET 5pts win KARINGA DANCER (1.55 Aintree)
BET 10pts win GALIWAY (2.20 Newbury)
BET 1pt win and place HIGHLAND CASTLE (2.40 Doncaster)
BET 5.8pts win NICHOLS CANYON and 2.2pts win SUGAR BOY (2.55 Newbury)
BET 3.2pts win EDGARDO SOL and 3pts win CONQUISTO, with 1.3pts win (stakes saver) WALKON (3.05 Aintree)
BET 2.2pts win JAMAICAN BOLT, and 1.4pts win and place BALLESTEROS (3.15 Doncaster)
BET 3pts win (nap) SOVIET ROCK (3.30 Newbury)
BET 4pts win CENTURY (3.50 Doncaster)
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