DOUBLE WHAMMY DAY FOR DAQMAN: Daqman’s lays, showing 18 out o 20 (that’s a 90% strike rate), are back today, including one in his nap’s race, making for a Double Whammy at Newmarket. He also has a win and lay in one race at Newbury.
DOUBLE GUINEAS DAY TOMORROW: Here’s how Daqman’s featured bets line up. Look out tomorrow for the French 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas, staged this year at Deauville.
Bankers 3-7
Fortune Cookies 1-2
Lays (90%) 18 out of 20
Challenge: Daqman 28, Pricewise 9
IMPROVER CARNACHY HAS ‘TWO CHANCES’
Why on earth is that running? (Or words to that effect). That’s how Richard Fahey summed up his first surprise – before Vona’s shock win at 33-1 at York yesterday – that she was even entered while he was away.
He was inadvertently summing up the three days of the Dante meeting. I have words of my own for the results but he saves me the expletives.
And today’s Lockinge at Newbury sums up the puzzle inside a conundrum that faces punters again today, in that only Belardo and Toormore are Group-1 winners but way back in 2013 and 14.
2.45 Newbury Here’s Eagle Top, two days after his brother, Wings Of Desire, took the Dante Stakes, and with the stable sizzling again yesterday when they won with Frankel’s first runner.
Wings Of Desire needs to be an improvement on Eagle Top to win the Derby and, in fact, must better the career of Farhh, best son of Pivotal to race in England so far. Farrh did best at 10 furlongs, but also won today’s Lockinge (1m).
Eagle Top was beaten only a nose in the King George but has won just the once – in Group 2 – since breaking his maiden. This is his best chance of losing his bridesmaid tag.
But there is an improver in the field, Carnachy, aimed at the Group-1 Pretty Polly at The Curragh at the end of June. I’d rather side with her at 5.3 than bank on Eagle Top at odds on.
Incredibly, in our punter-friendly BETDAQ orange (103% overround), Carnachy is a better price the place (two chances) than is Eagle Top for the win (one chance). I’ll use the place as insurance for the win bet.
LOG ON TO ISLAND AT TASTY 9.0 OFFERS
3.20 Newbury Winners in the last two seasons have both been rated 106, which is Dream Dubai’s mark. He’s 3lb behind Log Out Island but Island has logged a 3lb penalty for winning a Listed race.
However, the stats say that you need a horse of experience to win this, at least five previous races, suggesting that the winner will come from the top four on the card.
You strictly shouldn’t leave out Twin Sails but trainer Dean Ivory has made a shocking start to the turf season (1-24; only three of the 24 were placed) and his Newbury record is 1-14.
There is only half a length between Log Out Island and King Of Rooks on Norfolk Stakes form at Royal Ascot.
Hooded now, and a tasty 9.0 on BETDAQ early mouse, it’s Island in the sun (partly cloudy). He’ll give me a clue to Mr Lupton in the sprint at Newmarket (4.10).
3.35 Newmarket Listed or Group placed, with six runs on the CV already. That’s the sort of horse we’re looking for.
It leads us to expect that twice-raced class-3-winner Thikriyaat will need more time under Sir Michael Stoute.
Five of Stoute’s last six winners from 27 runners have been maidens from a separate yard. Eight from the main string at 6-1 or less have failed, including of course the then Derby favourite, Midterm, in the Dante.
In the same ownership as Thikriyaat, Elronaq spent last season in the shadow of super-fast Shalaa. Gelded since, he steps up to 7f today.
Race Day has also been gelded and now wears cheekpieces instead of the visor.
It all angles me to the official top-rating, Mick Channon’s Scrutineer (3.85), with Silvestre De Sousa spending the day aboard his horses, with the yard going great guns (48 in the first four from 85 turf runners).
DRAMA LOCKINGE THREAT TO TOORMORE
3.55 Newbury (Lockinge Stakes) Team Hannon, with Richard Junior, in good form during York, goes for a hat-trick in this race, with their form figures since 2010 reading: 113011.
Toormore was only narrowly beaten in this race last year (Arod third) and is already off the mark at a lower level but with Dutch Connection fancied to beat him ‘next time’, impressive runner-up for the second time against Toormore in the Sandown Mile (Belardo fourth).
John Gosden runs two, both Gm Hopkins and Mahsoob taking a leap in class, and in fact four-year-olds are seven out of nine over five-year-olds in the decade.
Commonwealth Cup runner-up, Limato, tries to be the first in 40 years to win on his debut over a mile.
Endless Drama, runner-up to Gleneagles in the Irish 2,000 Guineas last year, is back for a stable in excellent form.
Gerald Mosse flies over for Kodi Bear (67% for Clive Cox), who won the Celebration Mile at Goodwood with ease, but which Kodi Bear will we see. Excuses were made for the other one (skin infection/pulled too hard).
The ground will be the decider, and the front two in the market, at 5.9 each on BETDAQ early mouse, Toormore and Kodi Bear, have no problems with it. I just think Toormore the more reliable animal and Hannon the more reliable trainer at this time.
Ten of 20 Clive Cox horses have been second or third in May; that’s missing strike badly, saved only by a couple of very low level winners.
I shall also take the 10.0 Endless Drama; we would all kick ourselves if he won, and we’d left him alone at that price.
BE VENTUROUS WITH A GROUP-1 RUNNER
4.10 Newmarket (Sprint Trophy) The winner is likely to come from Venturous, Marsha, Gallipoli and Nisser, all lightly raced.
Richard Fahey has won it twice and Mr Lupton could be good enough to carry top weight, always in his element in fields of 10 to 20 runners where there is a strong pace.
He beat the improved Lingfield Derby Trial winner, Humphrey Bogart (Doncaster 22 ran) last season, and then ran second in the Two-Year-Old Trophy at Redcar (20 ran).
The winner of that race, Log Out Island, will have run at Newbury (3.20) earlier, and will be a guideline to Mr Lupton’s strength in this grade-lower race.
Sir Mark Prescott hasn’t had a turf winner this year so I’ll let Marsha run, but Venturous (5.1 on BETDAQ) has had a prep for this and he and Marsha are the only horses here with a Group-1 entry, indeed with any Group target.
Nisser (5.9 offers, as I write) looks a danger to all, off a featherweight and it seems to be a Hannon day for me.
4.30 Newbury (London Gold Cup) This is a favourite race for Ed Dunlop (Vivre Pour Vivre) and Rogert Charlton (Imperial Aviator), with two wins each since 2009, the best of them Charlton’s Al Kazeem who would win three Group 1s in s row, including the Eclipse.
Vivre Pour Vivre at 8.2 (Ryan Moore 57% for Dunlop) and Ger Lyons’ Spader have been lucky with the ease in the ground: I took 8.2 and 14.5 respectively.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points)
2.45 Newbury
BET 7pts win and place CARNACHY
3.20 Newbury
BET 3.75pts win and place LOG OUT ISLAND
3.35 Newmarket
LAY to lose 10pts THIKRIYAAT and BET 10.5pts win (nap) SCRUTINEER (3.35 Newmarket)
3.55 Newbury
PLACE LAY to lose 10pts LIMATO, and BET 6pts win TOORMORE, and 3pts win and place ENDLESS DRAMA
4.10 Newmarket
BET 7.5pts win VENTUROUS and 6pts win NISSER (4.10 Newmarket)
4.30 Newbury
BET 4pts win VIVRE POUR VIVRE, and 2.2pts win and place SPADER (4.30 Newbury)
5.35 Newbury
BET 3.4pts win and place SPARK PLUG
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 2pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win treble Eagle Top and Carnachy (2.45 Newbury), Scrutineer (3.35 Newmarket) and Spark Plug (5.35 Newbury)
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
