199 UP! NOW FOR THE FESTIVAL: How do you back 199 feature-race winners? Answer: Just follow the Daqman v Pricewise battle for value. Since our man challenged the Racing Post tipster in November, 2013, the score – on the brink of Cheltenham – stands at Daqman 129, Pricewise 70. Total 199.
DOUBLE CENTURY BID TODAY: Saturday-king Daqman (130 points in the last two weeks) could take the total past the 200 mark today as he goes to the oche with Bull’s-Eye Bets at 32.0 and 15.0 in the Imperial Cup and other races which Pricewise has nominated: 2.00 Sandown, 2.15 Wolverhampton, 3.10 Sandown.
LOOK OUT AT CHELTENHAM NEXT WEEK: Don’t miss Daqman’s day-by-day, race-by-race analysis at next week’s Cheltenham Festival. Free bets and a fair exchange for winners.. You’ve never had it so good!
BUCKLE DOWN TO A 15.0 IMPERIAL BET
2.00 Sandown (NH Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final) Though this has been won in the last decade by the usual suspects – Henderson, Nicholls, Pipe – there has been only one winning favourite; the last four scorers were between 8-1 and 20-1 at SP.
That means (ching ching!), there should be even better offers around on BETDAQ this morning, in a total list in the orange of only 109%, whereas the Total SP has been 126% for the last two seasons, 130% for the 2012 renewal.
Almost one in three of hurdles runners trained by Hobbs (Hello George), Henderson (Aigle De La See), Nicholls (As De Mee and Great Try) and Richards (Chidswell) have been winning their races this season.
Sure enough, they make up three of the four market leaders. Monbeg Theatre is the interloper, on he grounds that he’s 2lb better off for a narrow defeat by Aigle De La See over CD (soft) on the last day of January.
The problem for punters today, next week at Cheltenham, and at Aintree, is what value to place on soft-heavy ground form of the autumn and winter in the drying ground of early Spring.
As Du Mee and Monbeg Theatre also won on heavy, Great Try on soft. Chidswell’s form is on better ground and the stable is in good heart this season.
Paul Nicholls says that As De Mee (9.8 on BETDAQ early mouse) has always had this as his aim and won’t mind the ground drying out, but we have to also back stablemate Great Try (7.4), which he reckons the better handicapped of the two. We’ve been caught out too often picking the stable ‘best’, only for the other one to win.
2.35 Sandown The winners of this are not particularly big prices at SP, yet only one was clear favourite. Between 5-2 and 9-2 traps eight out of the last 10 winners.
The grey Ziga Boy will appreciate the surface but has his heavy-ground slog in the West Wales National left its mark? Trainer Alan King is in good form.
So, too, Oliver Sherwood, who landed his 1,000th winner with Financial Climate, though he was beating a maiden to land that honour on the last day, just as Ziga Boy beat only a maiden to scorer at Wincanton in December.
Ballyheigue Bay is worse off with the third horse home, Umberto D’Olivate, for his Kempton success, but I thought he looked really progressive and is value for his 9lb rise.
The 6.2 Ballyheigue Bay on BETDAQ this morning had to be taken, with the orange totalling only 103%
3.10 Sandown (Imperial Cup) Team Pipe (nine wins) used to regularly land the £100,000 bonus for doubling up this race with a follow-up at Cheltenham and has form figures in today’s first leg of 1112002/31 in the decade.
Those four Imperial winners in the last 10 years carried 10st 12lb or less, and in fact nothing has cracked the 11st barrier since the same stable’s back-to-back success of 2002-3.
Five year-olds have won 50% of the time in the last 20 years, with just one four-year-old and only two over the age of seven.
Bidourey is a Pipe four-year-old, reckoned a Cheltenham chaser of the future. He’ll do well to make the big leap from lower-level novice class but he’s on a six-timer, whereas Nicky Henderson’s West Wizard, attempting the same leap in class, has not won since his bumper debut nearly two years ago.
Paul Nicholls’ Calipto has never made the transition but has had a real good try, fourth in the Triumph Hurdle in March, fourth in the big Newbury hurdle recently after a wind op.
He was dropped 6lb for the start of this season but has now knocked up four consecutive races as beaten favourite, though Nicholls thinks he’ll go close to today, ridden up with the pace.
Fascino Rustico would have finished in front of Calipto at Newbury but for falling two out. He had hammered Zip Top (can make jumping erros) nine lengths before that at Newcastle.
Ebony Express might also have been involved but was brought down. From the shrewdest of yards, he is highly thought of and will appreciate the better ground. Massive at 34.0 on BETDAQ early mouse. I will declare the ‘odds’ as around 32.0, which were the adjusted offers after three defections from the race before 9 a.m.
I think Some Buckle will definitely make the step up from novice company, and looks dangerous today dropped back to the trip which saw him narrowly beaten by supersmart Glingerburn in a BETDAQ-sponsored novice hurdle at Doncqster.
Glingerburn has since beaten Fred Winter winner Hawk High and burst the bubble, giving him weight, of Listed-level Bristol De Mai. Some Buckle is 15.0 on BETDAQ at the time of writing. Bidourey completes my 1-2-3
DAQMAN’S ORDER IN: 1 Ebony Express 2 Bidourey, 3 Some Buckle
3.45 Sandown Another hard race for punters with just the one winning favourite in the decade but, again, only a rare big-priced winner. So look just beyond the favourite.
Four-year-olds don’t have many contenders in this but won it in 2005 and 2008, and have never been so strongly represented by the big yards with, notably, Irish champion Willie Mullins (Babylone Des Motte) and Jonjo O’Neill (Rose Revived) saddling two of the six youngsters.
But the Irish raider I like is Whistle Dixie, reckoned by the Racing Post ratings to be seven points clear of her field, and to be ridden by jockey of the season over there, Bryan Cooper.
On both sire, Kayf Tara, and distaff side (Good Thyne the dam’s sire) she is stamina packed yet able to win a Point and two bumpers at the minimum.
The worry is the better ground, which will suit Lifeboat Mona, another three-time winner with Megan Nicholls claiming off her. Father Paul skirts the day’s issue by saying she’s an exciting prospect for the future. She’s quite exciting for today at 11.5 on BETDAQ!
AL FOLLOW BOTTI! HE MEANS BUSINESS
2.15 Wolverhampton (Ladbrokes Lady Wulfruna Stakes) Marco Botti has won this twice since 2009 and has been in good form over the winter AW season.
Al Thakhira (6.0 in the BETDAQ orange) goes well fresh and has won a Listed and a Group 2 on turf. Sovereign Debt has also kept classy company but his stable is out of form right now.
As well as nine-times-raced Al Thakhira, Botti runs the exposed 9.6 offer Grey Mirage (26 runs), splitting his pair between Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore in an all-out effort to win.
2.50 Wolverhampton (Ladbrokes Lincoln Trial) Flipando (2009) finished third in the Lincoln at Doncaster after winning this but four others successful here went on to finish no nearer than seventh on Town Moor.
Mindurownbusiness was only fourth (twice) on this course in the autumn, but raced through the grades, up from class 4 to be second in class 3 then beat four of today’s rivals in a Lingfield class 2. Progress could continue under Graham Lee, if taking to Tapeta.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 30 points unless otherwise stated)
BET 4.6pts win GREAT TRY and 3.4pts win AS DE MEE (2.00 Sandown)
BET 6pts win AL THAKHIRA and 3.4pts win GREY MIRAGE (2.15 Wolverhampton)
BET 5.7pts win (nap) BALLYHEIGUE BOY (2.35 Sandown)
BET 7pts win MINDUROWNBUSINESS (2.50 Wolverhampton)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 3.5pts win SOME BUCKLE, and 1.6pts win and place EBONY EXPRESS (3.10 Sandown)
BET (to win 20): 6pts win WHISTLE DIXIE and 2pts win LIFEBOAT MONA (3.45 Sandown)
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