TWO WINNERS FROM THREE RACES FOR DAQMAN: After No No Tango proved short of Strictly material, just a place-only bet (2nd 12-1), Daqman waltzed through his two remaining races yesterday, landing another winning nap, backed down from near 2-1 on BETDAQ.
Friday: Profit on the day 6.50
WON 11-10 TOM CREEN (nap, from 2.98 on BETDAQ)
WON 10-11 PERSEUS WAY
TODAY ON THE BIG-RACE SCENE: Daqman’s 1-2-3 form and facts guide to the big races at Kempton and Warwick, stats previewed earlier in the week. He leads Pricewise 9-6 in their value hunt.
A 6.6 GLORY OFFER ON BETDAQ
⭕ 2.40 Kempton (Lanzarote Hurdle) STATS and story: See Daqman Wednesday.
1: Green Glory Only one outright favourite has won in the decade, and Charles Byrnes’ gelding had a six weeks’ run of four maiden hurdles without hacking it.
But that ‘achieved’ a lean 111 rating for his first handicap, and he won like a good thing, even though second and third had both beaten big fields in their previous starts.
Green Glory’s mark today let’s him in here with 10st 3lb, including the 5lb claim of his winning rider, Philip Byrnes no less, who could be celebrating this month’s 19th birthday in style.
2: Quinta Do Mar Would have been placed in this in 2022 but for tipping up at the last. Second and third have boosted his Salmon Spray win the last day at Fontwell.
3: Red Risk Freddie Gingell’s 7lb means that this Newbury winner can run 6lb better with the runner-up that day, Petit Tonnerre. Loves soft-heavy.
Outlaw Pete, Red Risk’s stablemate is a big chasing type who ran in three novices before breaking his maiden over today’s CD at Kempton after wind surgery.
A Graded second in the Persian War Novices’ Hurdle and a runaway win at Exeter, means that he gets into his first handicap today off a mark 3lb higher than Green Glory but will give 8lb because of boy Byrnes’ allowance.
Rathmacknee and Scarface are both in form and both from good stables but neither is guaranteed to like deep ground, though Scarface shortened in the markets this morning and best offers were 11.0 exchanged on BETDAQ.
Betdaq Betting Exchange value remains about 6.6 Green Glory, 27 Quinto Do Mar, 37 Red Risk
COMMODORE RATES CLASSIC BET
⭕ 3.00 Warwick Classic STATS and story: See Daqman Tuesday.
LAYS LOGIC:
Mr Incredible Regarded as ‘a real stayer’ by Henry De Bromhead, he moved to Willie Mullins in the middle of a losing run when he was beaten 31 lengths at Newbury and then failed to complete, ‘earning’ the dubious form letters RR, PU and BD, twice refusing to race, first at the start then pulling himself up after a few fences. Quirky or what!
Nestor Park Reckoned ‘classy’ by connections but, at age 10 and with a chase record of 1-12, is getting close to last-chance saloon, if he’s not already at the bar.
Threeunderthrufive won the novices’ chase on his card last year but his jumping has let him down since, over hurdles and fences. Cheekpieces might help. Likes to be up with the pace.
BEST ON FORM:
1: Commodore won the big autumn handicap at Cheltenham in December 2021 before a crack at the Grand National. He made the same Cheltenham return this season, weakening only on the run-in, and he is a Warwick course winner.
2: Volcano Warwick chase form 1111, including twice in the same 3m 5f chase in March. Not a very big horse but down the weights here and game as the proverbial pebble.
3: Grumpy Charlie The mud suits this relentless-galloping grey who has won only at Newbury over fences (including the Mandarin) but comes here in winning form at the right age.
4 Notachance won this Classic, aged only seven, after a run back at Bangor in the November,and well backed for a delayed double this morning. He returned this season in the same Bangor race, kept back for this, and is now down 16lb, which is 9lb below his Classic-winning mark.
Iwilldoit Back-to-back Chepstow strikes, including the Welsh Grand National of 2021, have shot him 17lb up the handicap for this return after more than a year off. Goes well fresh but stable has been out of form.
Lord Du Mesnil was second in that recent Bangor race; loves heavy ground and has won twice around today’s trip; 3lb below last winning mark, with cheekpieces back on. Likes to be up with the pace.
Guetapan Collonges completed a hat-trick, still standing, when he won here at Warwick in November. Loves deep ground and has scored twice fresh from long breaks but this is a leap up in class, and morning gamble – probably Pricewise lemmings – has reduced his odds to modest value in this field.
Fortescue Listed-chase winner and Graded placed, unseated four out in the Grand National, fourth over the same big fences in the Becher in December. Question whether these efforts have taken their toll and struggled in Welsh National the last day.
BETDAQ value generally 17-2 best with bookies, 11.0 Notachance this morning. Volcano 16.5 and Commodore 23.0 are big.
HELTER-SKELTON BIG-RACE BAG
⭕ 2.25 Warwick Dan Skelton has earned the reputation of ‘target trainer’ and, on the theory that he won’ be wrong twice at Warwick, I take 4.5 offer about the progressive mud-lover Grey Dawning in this Grade 2 before the stable’s crack at a £20,000 hurdles prize with Grand National candidate Ashtown Lad.
⭕ 3.35 Warwick FORTUNE COOKIE Ashtown Lad was being pressed in the markets by Glimpse Of Gala this morning and best offer was 3.5 on the BETDAQ exchange.
As Becher winner, his revised chase rating makes his hurdles mark look tempting for this slog.
Glimpse Of Gala turned around Ascot form with the winner at Kempton on the last day but was entitled to do so on revised terms and claimed off. Both races were for mares only.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.25 Warwick (win 20, nap)
BET 5.75pts win GREY DAWNING
2.40 Kempton (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 5.25pts win GREEN GLORY
BET 2pts win QUINTO DO MAR
BET 1.4pts win RED RISK
3.00 Warwick (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 5pts win NOTACHANCE
BET 3.25pts win VOLCANO
BET 2.25pts win COMMODORE
FORTUNE COOKIE
3.35 Warwick
ASHTOWN LAD
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