DAQMAN LANDS 17-2 AND 4-1 WINNERS IN AINTREE DOUBLE: Another Saturday profit – though a narrow one (just under 10 points) – with three returns as Daqman landed two out of two at Aintree including the big race, the Old Roan Chase, with Conquisto (WON 17-2). His three winning bets were:
WON 4-1 Karinga Dancer (Aintree)
3rd 16-1 (from 19.5 BETDAQ) Highland Castle
WON 17-2 Conquisto (Aintree)
2.05 Aintree When Ely Brown won this last year, he was receiving more than two stone from the fifth horse home, Lovcen, on soft ground. On the better surface that Lovcen prefers today, Charlie Longsdon claims 10lb off Ely Brown to try to maintain the advantage.
Meanwhile, Burton Port reappears for a new trainer under Tony McCoy, riding magnificently on the way to the 4,000 (13 to go). Thanks for Conquisto, A P.
But who would be a tipster, putting the slide-rule on this race? There are more collateral-form measurements to be made, with Ely Brown beaten out of sight by First Fandango over course and distance at the Grand National meeting but that one out the back when Orsippus led until two out at Haydock afterwards.
We can only assume that the front-running Orsippus will make this hurdle too fast for the chaser Burton Point, who hasn’t won a race for more than three years, not even seen on a racecourse for 563 days.
On all known form, Orsippus will come back to Ely Brown and Lovcen, and the 106% total probability in the offers on BETDAQ this morning mean that I can back one and save on the other.
2.40 Aintree More BETDAQ value, with the orange adding up to just 105% as I write. McCoy’s mount, Eastlake, goes particularly well fresh.
That one and another front-runner Stagecoach Pearl are the two in the race that have already won at class-2 level, and level-4 winner, Ballybriggan, needs to improve, albeit getting the weight.
The difference between the three is that Eastlake has youth on his side – he’s two years younger – and has the ever-youthful McCoy in the plate.
2.40 Longchamp (Prix Royal Oak) Andreas Wohler, who was unlucky to have Novellist ruled out of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe with a last-minute fever, tries for a massive transatlantic double today with French Gold Cup winner, Altano, in this Royal Oak and Seismos, only narrowly bettered by Novellist in his Arc trial, in the Canadian International at Woodbine tonight.
The form of the Gold Cup runner-up, lightly-raced Tac De Boistron, was boosted yesterday when Cubanita, the filly the Marco Botti grey beat eight lengths at Chester last month, stormed home in the St Simon Stakes at Newbury.
Well behind the French Gold Cup one-two, but much better suited to the Royal Oak trip, is Les Beaufs, who goes for back-to-back wins in today’s race.
The Royallieu (1m 4f) winner here on Arc day, Ebiyza, must improve for the longer distance, whereas Michael Bell’s Epsom Oaks third, The Lark, seemed to revel in the Park Hill trip at Doncaster, which is just a furlong shorter than today’s.
But I’m sticking with Altano, who stayed on too late to land the Goodwood Cup (2m good) and was badly ridden out of his ground in the Ascot Gold Cup (firmish surface).
He has the very soft ground he needs today, and I expect him to be ridden handy to the pace this afternoon to exploit his stamina in the Longchamp straight.
2.55 Wincanton (Desert Orchid Silver Cup) Last year’s winner, Any Currency, has not reached the first three since but has his ground today. Highland Lodge’s form first run back is 111 and Emma Lavelle won the race in 2008.
Jeremy Scott took it in 2011 with a horse having his first run back but his Clash Duff (a 15.5 shot) hasn’t been seen since March, 2012. I like to give one big outsider a day and he might not be so duff, potentially targeted at the race.
Standing Ovation may be restrained this time, having made all on the course over two furlongs shorter, and it’s a tall order to land a treble inside 18 days off a stone higher than when the sequence started.
3.15 Aintree Wide open. Punter-friendly, as ever, on BETDAQ. Super consistency, with Crowning Jewel out of the frame only once in 12 starts; Bright Abbey always in the returns from 10 starts; Get Home Now 12 out of 15. Party Rock bidding for a five-timer.
Crowning Jewel, Get Home Now, Party Rock, Ruacana and Uncle Jimmy all have good form at today’s class-2 level. But, on the form of the stables, only Munsaab, Ruacana and Uncle Jimmy should be considered. What was that I was saying about the hard life of a tipster!
Munsaab hasn’t got the form in the book for my liking. Party Rock may need the run and is now hiked in the handicap. But Ruacana (7.8 as I write) goes well fresh and drops from Graded company, while Uncle Jimmy just missed out when ‘expected’ on his reappearance at Newton Abbot.
8.38 Woodbine (E P Taylor Stakes) Europe has landed five of the last six and it might have been six had not David Simcock’s I’m A Dreamer missed first prize by a head in 2011.
This, and Simcock’s third in the Woodbine Mile with Trade Storm last month, has prompted the Newmarket trainer to saddle Moment In Time tonight, though she has only a Group 3 in England on her CV, missing out on the Lancashire Oaks (Group 2) by threeparts of a length.
But the official ratings say she has improved all year, starting the season as a 78 handicapper in a class-4 at Bath and now running in her third consecutive Group/Grade 1 off 108.
And the front-of-the-market local opposition is Group 2 at best so far, with Minakshi and Canadian Flag hard to separate on their one-two over a furlong shorter in the Canadian Stakes on today’s course last month.
Tannery, once a Dundalk winner for David Wachman in Ireland, has won only on soft ground since, and has been beaten at Keeneland, Saratoga and Belmont on the kind of firm surface we are told to expect tonight.
9.44 Woodbine (Canadian International) Europe has won seven out of 10, with Joshua Tree (Ed Dunlop and Ryan Moore) bidding for his third success after form figures in the race of 121.
He has his third International trainer and fourth jockey tonight after winning for Aidan O’Brien and Colm O’Donoghue in 2010 and for Marco Botti and Frankie Dettori last year (second under Adam Kirby in 2011).
Against him now is that he’s never won on firm ground, whereas the local horse, Forte Dei Marmi, whom he beat into third in the race last year (going good), is attempting four wins in a row and a hat-trick on firm.
The sound surface is an unknown for Seismos (Group 1 winner in Munich), beaten only threequarters of a length by his German stablemate Novellist in a Grosser Preis Von Baden-Baden which propelled the winner to the front of the Arc de Triomphe market at the time.
DAQMAN’S BETS (All bets staked to win 20 points at morning offers on BETDAQ)
BET 10pts win ELY BROWN and 2.2pts win (stakes saver) LOVCEN (2.05 Aintree)
BET 6pts win (nap) EASTLAKE (2.40 Aintree)
BET 4pts win ALTANO and 3.3pts win TAC DE BOISTRON (2.40 Longchamp)
BET 7.4pts win HIGHLAND LODGE, and 1.3pts win and place CLASH DUFF (2.55 Wincanton)
BET 4pts win UNCLE JIMMY and 3pts win RUACANA (3.15 Aintree)
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