CONSTABLE IN THE FRAME! 5-1 WINNER: Daqman had five bets in his bid to win yesterday’s handicaps across the cards at Ascot and Haydock, resulting in a close call for the double: John Constable (WON 5-1 from 9.0 on BETDAQ) in the Swinton Hurdle and George William (2nd 8-1 from 12.5 on BETDAQ) in the Victoria Cup.
21-6 AHEAD GOING INTO THE GUINEAS: John Constable sent him further in front of his arch rival, Pricewise of the Racing Post (the score is now 21-6). He has a commanding 44-point profits lead to single unit (level) stakes. Now for the French 2,000 Guineas today.
THE 18.5 BETDAQ VUE IS FINE
2.35 Deauville (Prix Saint-Alary) This race has fallen from grace. In fact, I’d say ‘crashed’ as opposed to ‘fallen’.
The Saint-Alary/French Oaks double used to be a fair bet: Stacelita and Sarafina did that double back to back in 2009 and 2010, and star fillies of the Seventies, (Dahlia, Nobilliary, Three Troikas) all took this route.
But, for the last six seasons, Saint-Alary winners have failed to score in any subsequent race. Future winners, not a one. Absolute zero returns if you followed them all to the workhouse.
Of course, John Gosden and Frankie Dettori (with Enable’s trial safely over) are hoping that Coronet is at the beginning not the end of her career.
But the last six seasons of duff results suggest that this does not rank as a trial for the Epsom Oaks, not even for the French Oaks!
That won’t stop Coronet from winning (nor will it stop the English bookies from slashing her Oaks price after the race).
In fact, we have to assume that John Gosden, who has strength in depth among his fillies this year, has spotted the current weakness of this prize and is here to pocket some pre-Brexit euros while he can.
The restraint on having a decent bet on Coronet is the ground and her high draw.
Gold Luck has a better draw (in gate 3) but has been winning on good ground and the sire’s progeny has always avoided soft and heavy.
Placed behind Gold Luck in a blanket finish for her Group-3 prep were Monroe Bay (stall 5 today), Hebah (in 7) and Vue Fantastique (in 1).
Progeny of Hebah’s sire, Sea The Stars, have a 22% record on very soft ground. For Vue Fantastique that record is even better: 30%.
Vue Fantastique was beaten only about a length, giving 5lb, to Lady Frankel at Saint-cloud in March yet is THREE times the price of that one this morning, with offers of 18.5 on BETDAQ. She’d be much shorter if trained Head, Fabre or Rouget.
PEACE BE WITH YOU AT 12.0
3.15 Deauville (French 2,000 Guineas) Best winner this century would be Shamardal (2005), subsequent French Derby and St James’s Palace Stakes scorer who has sired 18 Group-1 winners.
Generally, you wouldn’t expect anything brilliant from the race but it looks strong this year. The only worry about the result as a Royal Ascot guide is that it will be run on very soft ground.
Yesterday in the Pouliches (French 1,000), we followed the form we know, and something with a bit of experience that handled the ground suddenly took a step forward.
Andre Fabre and Aidan O’Brien have each won today’s Poulains four times this century, and have two each running.
Fabre’s Le Brivido has been winning over 6f but has a stamina-packed pedigree. However, he is drawn wide in 13, and stalls 1, 3 (twice) 4 and 5 won the five races on turf here yesterday, despite assurances from the track and in the Racing Post that there was very little bias in the draw.
Stablemate Inns Of Court, from an easier draw, also has the breeding for this and is so far unbeaten.
As for O’Brien, he has two strong candidates in Orderofthegarter and Peace Envoy. ‘Garter’ has been winning easily from the front, including on soft-heavy, and even his maiden defeat in October now looks good, since the winner was a certain Cliffs Of Moher!
Orderofthegarter is in stall 2, poised for another front run, with Ryan Moore’s choice, Peace Envoy, from gate 6.
A big, green two-year-old, Peace Envoy was given plenty of experience but was always going to do better in his second season. Quiet reappearance run at Naas, boxed in most of the way.
National Defense, Rivet and South Seas all beat Salouen last season, Lagardere winner National Defense by the widest margin but with South Seas having the best draw (4) today.
Criquette Head-Maarek says that National Defense has improved at home since beaten in the Djebel on his return, splitting Al Wukair and African Ride. Al Wukair ran in to a place in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas, raising the status of that Salouen form.
Mankib (stall 1 today) finished in front of African Ride (stall 5) as a two-year-old and Brametot (stall 3) won one of the best trials for this, the Prix Fontainebleau.
VERDICT: I quickly got the Newmarket Guineas down to a 1-2-3 (which proved to be the correct order in) but this one is much harder.
The verdict has to be the best on form in the conditions with the (seemingly) best draw. Even that leaves an open race!
But it is noticeable that English and Irish raiders (whose Classic colts are usually stronger than the French) have three in the low numbers: while I think 18.0 offer South Seas might improve, I fancy the O’Brien pair can dictate: I shall side with Peace Envoy (12.0 on BETDAQ) as does Ryan Moore, with National Defense (5.8) as the danger.
HOW TO WIN A TRIP TO ACAPULCO
2.55 The Curragh (Sole Power Sprint) Acapulco looks nap material, tongue strap on as if Aidan O”Brien means business as the Queen Mary winner and Nunthorpe runner-up ‘starts out’ today.
Another Ballydoyle sprinter, officially a 113, is Washington DC, who has battled twice with Ardhoomey and is roughly the same horse in the ratings.
Ardhoomey’s giving 10lb here to 107 rated Acapulco is, therefore, decisive and offers of 3.55 to Ardhoomey’s 5.1 generous. Win yourself a trip to the ‘sunny blue waters’.
HOOFNOTE: Have the Russians tampered with the BHA computer and deleted all Flat racing in England today? France and Ireland certainly have the trump cards, so that all the best racing on an English Sunday is in those foreign parts called Europe. Will we ever grow up!
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.55 The Curragh
BET 8pts win (nap) ACAPULCO
2.35 Deauville
BET 4pts win HEBAH
BET 1.25pts win and place VUE FANTASTIQUE
3.15 Deauville
BET 4pts win NATIONAL DEFENSE, and 2pts win and place PEACE ENVOY
EARLY BIRDS: Peace Envoy
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