THREE OUTSIDERS ALL PLACED: Daqman landed four more winning bets but will remember yesterday for huge near misses at BETDAQ value: Bilbrook Blaze (3rd 16-1), Unanimite (2nd 12-1) and Mondialiste (2nd 16-1), and two seconds ended his sequence of bankers. He goes for an outsider and a banker today.
DAQMAN NOW 82 IN FRONT: Pricewise scored three times to our man’s two (‘They brought in reinforcements,’ says Daqman). Although Daqman’s saver won and he did not lose money on the last at Keeneland – Pricewise did – the saver won’t count because it is settled at odds on SP, leaving the scores at Daqman 103, Pricewise 21.
NATIONAL CLASH TODAY IN FINAL WEEK: The value challenge continues today in the Cork Grand National and on Tuesday morning (preview tomorrow) in the Melbourne Cup in the final seven days of the English Flat campaign, culminating in the November Handicap.
GOLDEN DAYS OF 2015 LOST AND FOUND..
The Fat Lady sings next Saturday. But, apart from the November Handicap – and another bunch of maidens! – a great, great Flat-racing season is over.
It will be remembered as the Year of Golden Horn, even though Found, beaten half a length by him in the Irish Champion Stakes, got her revenge by a similar margin in the Breeders Cup on an easier surface last night.
Despite that final setback, it’s also been the year of John Gosden and Frankie Dettori. Frankie has natural race-riding enthusiasm. Gosden has mastered the art of being master of horse and stable. Oh, and Press.
It’s obviously easier to speak to camera when you don’t have to do a Mourinho, though not only Gosden but also many other trainers (who can forget the Boy’s Own excitement of Aidan O’Brien after Air Force Blue’s Dewhurst), have been talking wisely and well to Channel-4, and yet the audience has crashed.
What does management do? It buys in Tony McCoy. If they are interviewing celebs left, right and centre parade, I can’t see what difference it will make.
So what do they need? The answers are always the same in racing. They are much harder to achieve than talk talk.
We strive for them on this site. We’ll be working hard for them in the coming NH season (that’s my cue card). The answers are Value and Winners.
On that note, I’ll shut up, and take a look at Saint-cloud and Cork today. Tomorrow, I’ll preview the Melbourne Cup. And I’ll be as anxious as Klopp to get you Saturday’s November Handicap winner at the end of the week.
DONJUAN INTERNATIONAL SOFT-GROUND LOVER
12.55 Saint-cloud (Criterium International) The French are outnumbered 6-2 in this Group-1 (7f) two-year-old test, which English and Irish raiders have taken six times in nine years, three of their winners trained Aidan O’Brien.
His contender here, Johannes Vermeer, has already been in the frame in two autumn juvenile ‘classics,’ fourth in the Lagardere (Attendu eighth) on Arc day, and runner-up last week in the Racing Post Trophy. Will he still have an edge on him?
Richard Fahey’s Donjuan Triumphant did not look anything special until encountering soft ground in Pattern company. Then, according to the handicapper, he leapt 18lb in the ratings, and won the Maisons-Laffitte Criterium very easily earlier this month.
Tashweeq brings the Dewhurst form (running-on fourth) to the table, and it will be a surprise if one of these three top raiders can’t hold off the French.
Fahey went so close to a first-runner-first-winner Breeders Cup success through Birchwood and Donjuan has seduced me because he so loves the soft ground.
IDAHO BANKER ON THE FAME AND GLORY TRAIL
1.30 Saint-cloud (Criterium de Saint-cloud) Aidan O’Brien has also crushed the French four times in this Group-1 (1m 2f) contest, and looks set to take it again.
His Galileo colt, Idaho, brother to Highland Reel, has had only one run, one win in a maiden, but so had subsequent Irish Derby winner, Fame And Glory, when he won this race for Ballydoyle in 2008.
Harry Dunlop’s Robin of Navan, has won twice on the soft in France, including defeat of Millfield and Cloth of Stars. But Idaho rates the banker.
2.45 Saint-cloud (Prix de Flore) English raiders have won this only once since 1989, and they have soft-heavy-ground winners running today in Secret Pursuit for Marcus Tregoning, Persona Grata (Ed Walker), Kallisha (Brendan Powell) and Marsh Daisy (Hughie Morrison).
But all are Listed level at best and three-year-olds are 11-4 up over older horses this century, which suggests that we should look more closely at the bottom four.
Parade Music (Royallieu) and Bourree (Opera), a Group-3 winner already, both ran well enough on Arc day at Longchamp to figure here. I’ll take them to finish in that order.
3.20 Saint-cloud (Prix Perth) Older horses are ahead of the three-year-olds 10-1 this century, and an English winner is rare these days, though John Gosden took it twice in the Nineties.
Gosden’s Johnny Barnes has won all his best races in the mud, runner-up on this card last year in the Criterium International, and back to form on ‘very soft’ at Deauville in August.
Fintry is back in her class after a break, following failed attempts, not disgraced, in Group-1 company. On the stats, I’ll take Fintry for the older fillies.
THIRD TIME LUCKY FOR CORK-LOCAL UNOCCUPIED
1.00 and 2.35 Carlisle Over to the jumps and Venetia Williams showed yesterday that she is winning first time when she has a horse that needs to be fresh.
Both Becausehsesaidso (1.00) and Ballyoliver (2.35) won on their seasonal debuts last year – in fact, Ballyoliver goes for the same race again – and I shall support them, stop at a winner.
I could get 10.0 the win Becausehsesaidso and 2.58 the place at the time of writing. If that one loses, I shall back Ballyoliver (currently 5.4) to win the same amount plus any losses from the first bet.
3.35 Cork Grand National Last year’s second, third, fourth and fifth – Dushrembrandt, A Decent Excuse, and the 2013 one-two Sword Fish and Unoccupied – are all back for more.
You could say that Dushrembrant and A Decent Excuse have more weight to carry, or you could say, by their revised ratings, that they are the pair out of that quartet to have shown improvement, and the two others haven’t.
But, in fact, Sword Fish, went on to win the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse, and completely lost his form after that. And Unoccupied hasn’t been seen since.
Rogue Angel won the Galway Blazers in the summer and the Kerry National in September, so is up 11lb. At aged seven, he could still improve.
But, normally, it would be hard to see these established chasers giving lumps of weight on this soft ground to all three six-year-olds, who – as tautology has it – have their futures before them.
Surely, one of King Leon, Riverside City and Tulsa Jack can take advantage? Well, the snag is that Tulsa Jack and King Leon have won only on a sound surface; Ulster National winner Riverside City on good and yielding only.
So this National is a puzzle inside a conundrum: all we can do is side with a value-offered soft-ground horse who gets the trip well.
That would be the locally-trained Unoccupied, placed twice in this already; clearly saved up for the race; goes well fresh; and 9.4 on BETDAQ this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes 1 to 9 according to the strength of the bet; 10 is a banker)
BET 7pts win DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT (12.55 Saint-cloud)
BET 2pts win and place BECAUSEHESAIDSO (1.00 Carlisle), if lose 7pts win BALLYOLIVER (2.35 Carlisle) plus 1pt win double the two
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) IDAHO (1.30 Saint-cloud)
BET 4pts win PARADE MUSIC (2.45 Saint-cloud)
BET 6pts win FINTRY (3.20 Saint-cloud)
BET 4pts win UNOCCUPIED (3.35 Cork)
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