16-1 WINNER SEALS CHAMPIONS DAY: Daqman was the ladies’ man on Champions Day yesterday, naming a sensational one-two in the Fillies’ And Mares Stakes, a 162-1 forecast with Ladbrokes:
1: Seal Of Approval (WON 16-1)
2: Belle De Crecy (2nd 10-1)
TWO BIG-RACE LAYS OUT OF TWO: The neck defeat of Jack Dexter cost Daqman his usual Saturday killing but there was another high note when he dared to lay the Champion Stakes hot-pot, Cirrus Des Aigles (2nd 6-4 favourite), following First Lieutenant (3rd 4-5 favourite) on Thursday. He also tipped Dark Lover (WON 7-4) for his eighth hit in three days.
2.15 Kempton Alan King’s runners in this since 2008 have all won (111). His ex-Flat Manduro gelding Duroble Man might be a better bet here than the morning favourite.
Paul Nicholls’ Aldopicgros was bound to head the market but may need to acclimatize after switching from the French provinces, seems to want another half-mile and heavy ground on breeding, and tried to run out when he won a three-runner bumper.
It remains to be seen whether the renowned Ditcheat ‘ironing’ job has smoothed out his kinks and foibles but I wouldn’t want him interfering with my wallet at a short price.
2.45 Kempton This is more the Nicholls’ style. His strike rate is better than 50% in novice chases in October (Dark Lover won yesterday), and his record in this race is 1114 since its launch in 2004.
It’s hard to envisage defeat for the Ditcheat hot-pot Dodging Bullets but it’s a funny old race to bet in, with four of the runners absent for a total of 1,530 days, and t’other one, Be All Man, apparently needing another mile to be seen at his best.
3.20 Kempton Contrast the novice chase with this Listed novices’ hurdle, in which the five runners have won 35 races and all have raced within the last 64 days, none of them out of the frame.
That reads like a scenario for the launch of a quality hurdler. Not so, unless this field is an exception. The last five winners never won another hurdle, and most of them went novice chasing.
Front-runner Life And Soul drops back to around his winning trip, after failing to last out over further at Newton Abbot when Cool McAvity blundered alongside at the last.
Hallings Comet is also a headstrong type. He and Life And Soul will probably set it up for Azure Fly and Sea Lord, the odds-on favourite in the opening markets.
Azure Fly would have landed a hat-trick by a total of 50 lengths but for swerving after the last when clear at Southwell. But Sea Lord has risen through the handicap grades to win a Listed at senior level already, and Azure Fly’s victims have failed to frank the form.
3.50 Kempton Kim Bailey has had the same horse win this twice. Now he hopes that Highrate can follow that lead but his form after a break is 0F0.
A 14.5 offer on BETDAQ as I write, Be Definite (reappearance results 121) is the one to be on fresh, though he’d prefer some cut in the ground. Western King likes it on top, and is down a grade after failing to cope with an 8lb rise, hiked to class 3.
Green Bank has also struggled with his ratings rise after success at Market Rasen in August. Moleskin seems to have lost his speed, and Suburban Bay is a bridesmaid, placed eight times in his last 12 starts without winning. What on earth is he doing at the head of the market!
I think the safest conveyance for your cash is another horse hard to win with, Sadler’s Star (9.6), but trainer Michael Blake employs a well-known stimulus in the shape of A P McCoy. This looks a boot-and-braces belter of a ride for the greatest jockey.
4.25 Kempton This is the big one. The clash of The New One and Rock On Ruby, champion novice v champion hurdler.
Age will win in the end. The three years that Rock On Ruby gives to The New One will be decisive. But today? It all depends on whether Ruby is ready first time out.
If he is, the 2-1 Ruby is a must bet over 1-2 The New One, who has never before been asked to win a hurdle at the minimum trip, despite all the boasting about his speed, faces a tactically-small field and prefers cut in the ground.
A lot depends on the pace set by Australia Day. And whether it rains. Ifs and buts don’t make for an odds-on bet, so I’m opposing The New One here, though he must go close to justify his odds in the Champion Hurdle.
I certainly can’t take the Cheltenham offers (8.2 on BETDAQ) until he’s proved himself at 2m and it’s intriguing that Ladbrokes are bigger about him (8-1) than any other bookmaker.
And they’re shorter about Rock On Ruby (10-1) than any other bookmaker. After all, he won it in 2011 and was a close second to Hurricane Fly this year.
Horses aged eight and nine have won the title five times this century and, if you believe that Ruby can add to that score next March, then you have to grab the BETDAQ 18.5 offers this morning before today’s race and put the ‘overs’ in your wallet.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each to win 20 points)
BET 7pts win (nap) DUROBLE MAN (2.15 Kempton)
BET 2.3pts win SADLER’S STAR and 1.4pts win BE DEFINITE (3.50 Kempton)
BET 10pts win ROCK ON RUBY (4.25 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt win acca DUROBLE MAN (2.15 Kempton), DODGING BULLETS (2.45 Kempton), SEA LORD (3.20 Kempton), ROCK ON RUBY (4.25 Kempton)
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