SOLITARY BEAUTY IN SANTA ANITA: Daqman is one short of 70 feature-race wins over Pricewise after Judy The Beauty (WON 7-2) scored at the Breeders’ Cup in Santa Anita. Otherwise the two days were disastrous all round for English and Irish horses and tipsters.
THE GAP IS 69-32 TO DAQMAN: The score in the challenge ahead of the remaining week of the Flat season is Daqman 69, Pricewise 32. Here’s how they will clash in the final eight days, all opportunities for Daqman’s Bull’s Eye Bets (235 points in profit):
TODAY: Cork Grand National
TOMORROW: Melbourne Cup (4 a.m. Tues)
SATURDAY: Doncaster Flat finale
POWER TO THE GLOBAL BETDAQ MARKET!
2.35 Carlisle (Cumberland Chase) Linda Russell landed a hat-trick in this (2008-10), and she has Settledoutofcourt the right age and weight to go close again.
There’s been no winner in the decade with more than 11st 4lb and horses aged seven and eight are six out of seven since 2006.
Global Power is clearly a glass horse, rarely seen on the racetrack, but he landed a gamble in the race last year, his sole start since April 2013, and he’s back for the double, his first appearance since, only a few pounds higher.
Tutchec and Ballyoliver are CD winners, and Fill The Power is weighted to finish in front of Global Power on last year’s Midlands Grand National form. Coillaterally, there’s not much between Ballyoliver, Tutchec and Grove Pride.
That’s another way of saying that the handicapper has done his job but he can’t predict the pace of the race, which can undo all his work. This one is hot.
Grove Pride, Orange Nassau, Settledoutofcourt, The Panama Kid and Tutchec have all led or made all in their races. No hanging about, then. And rain softening the ground all the time.
All that sounds ideal for the out-and-out stayer of the race, Soudain, a bit high in the handoicap but with Tom Scudamore booked and a huge 19.0 on BETDAQ , as I write. Global Power will obviously be geared up for a repeat and must also be backed.
A DECENT OUTSIDER AT 17.0 ON BETDAQ
3.20 Cork Grand National The stats are strong on recent form: 12 of the last 13 winners had raced in the previous 35 days. So four in today’s field – Ipsos Du Berlais, Unoccupied, Carry Each Other and 2011 winner, The Bishop Looney – are seemingly up against it.
Seven year-olds have the best record, with horses of a double-figure age 0-46 in 13 seasons, which eliminates Darenjan, The Bishop Looney (I thought he’d gone!) and Vics Canvas.
Horses officially rated 120+ have won nine of those last 13, which puts the low eight here at a disadvantage, including last year’s winner, Sword Fish (and The Bishop Looney!)
Sword Fish was a rare lightweight winner in 2013 off only 109 and with Ben Dalton claiming another 3lb. off that, so he’s now 7lb higher.
His trainer, Christy Roche, has had two Cork National winners from three runners (Streets Of Gold 2010 the other one) but it would be quite a feat to return Sword Fish to form after a dismal year of six consecutive defeats, a total of 268 lengths behind the winner, still standing.
Tom Nagle, who has had two winners, a second and fourth since 2007, runs a horse called The Bishop Looney (or did I mention him). Noel Meade has had 7-15 in the frame this century but has won it just the once (Mattock Ranger 2007).
Two of his three starters, Tom Horn and Protaras, fit the stats. The pair ran together in the Munster National (3m on good ground last month), with Tom Horn only narrowly beaten, and Protaras staying on out of the pack. Both jumped really well.
The ground – and a rise in his rating – have gone against Tom Horn (only fifth last year), and Protaras disappointed at Galway on the last day, so my Meade horse is the grey Ipsos Du Berlais, though he Noel, himself, prefers Tom Horn.
‘Berlais’ is an out-and-out stayer who wins when fresh (and can deny the stats in that regard). With Ger Fox up, he will have a pound less than when the ‘moral’, runner-up in a big Grade-C field at Fairyhouse 11 months back, giving more than a stone to the winner.
The National horse with most of the stats in his favour is Unoccupied, second in this last year – only his second chase – and disqualified after a barging match for the Ulster Grand Naitonal, before coming good with an excellent round of jumping at Punchestown.
Again the stats flaw is that Unoccupied hasn’t been occupied on a racetrack since that Punchestown win in May, – he’s never before won when fresh – and his local Cork stable has had only one winner since.
VERDICT: Ipsos Du Berlais is 14.0 on BETDAQ this morning, and I couldn’t stop my mouse scurrying to the orange. He seems to have a much better chance than Unoccupied of winning when fresh.
Sword Fish completely lost his form after a scintillating win in this race last year. They tried a hood to revive him without success in the Spring, after a gamble at Punchestown (favourite) also failed.
Another at a big price is A Decent Excuse, a consistent youngster whose form cries out for a trip like today’s. The stable is bullish despite 17.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
THE NAP: Dessie Hughes is the man in form in Ireland, and I’m following Lieiutenant Colonel (2.30 Naas) until he’s beaten.
Another exciting prospect, Martello Tower (1.40 Cork) may need the run, and I’m going to Ask Vic to complete a short-priced double.
DAQMAN’S BETS
SPECIAL BETS: 10pts win on each and 5pts win double ASK VIC (1.40 Cork) and LIEUTENANT COLONEL (nap, 2.30 Naas)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50 points): 12pts win GLOBAL POWER, and 2.7pts win and place SOUDAIN (2.35 Carlisle)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50 points): 3.8pts win IPSOS DU BERLAIS and 3pts win A DECENT EXCUSE, each with stakes-saver place bets to win 7.8 points (3.20 Cork)
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