BIG DOUBLE CHALLENGE IS ON: After a 1-1 draw yesterday, Daqman and Pricewise (current score 9-3) clash in two big races today, the Punchestown Chase in Ireland, which has survived an inspection, and the Peterborough at Huntingdon. The overall score is Daqman 255, Pricewise 98.
8.0 BETDAQ GAMBLE WINS AT 5-1: Yesterday started well for Daqman with a double whammy, laying another losing favourite, Brise Vendeenne (3rd 9-2 jt) and backing the runaway winner, gambled-on Flute Bowl (WON 5-1 from 8.0).
20 LAYS UP OUT OF 22: But only his lays held up after that, Savello (unplaced 7-1) making it two from two on the day for seven out of seven and 20 from the last 22.
Naps: 113211011101F001F21232112213
Bankers: 2111F11213
Lays: 1111111111111xx1111111
Challenge: Daqman 9, Pricewise 3 (overall 255-98)
CAN ‘ZIG’ IRON OUT THE DITCHEAT SQUIGGLE?
2.00 Huntingdon (Peterborough Chase) Older horses and comeback kids, like Sire De Grugy, have cut a swathe through the big prizes in the first month of the season.
One reason for that is simple planning: if you’re unlikely to hold off the young stars and the rising potential at the festivals in the new year, you have to be ready to win now.
Wishfull Thinking did that very thing last season: got up early to take the Old Roan Chase at Aintree in October, and followed up in this Huntingdon grade 2, but was never the same again.
Never again, that is, until – now 12, going on 13 – he was sent out on the same double mission but failed by half a length to take the Old Roan again 42 days ago.
But this year’s Peterborough Chase is a higher level, spearheaded by a young pretender, Ptit Zig, who was a solid second at Ascot last month to Vautour, the Cheltenham JLT winner who was on win number nine out of 10 and is Gold Cup favourite in most books, despite Don Poli’s success yesterday.
Normally I would lump on Ptit Zig this afternoon, as I did Vibrato Voltat yesterday, but Vibrato ran on a lower voltage than expected and his Ditcheat stable is in the doldrums.
Yes, Paul Nicholls had a flurry of four winners out of six on the gaffe tracks at the turn of the month but his record at the big meetings is poor, badly missing strike.
That’s when a stable’s runners go so near and yet so far, as in Nicholls’ form figures since those winners of 22233605345350354P0, the last 14 of those all losers at Sandown and Aintree yesterday, including quality horses As De Mee, Southfield Theatre, Rocky Creek and, of course, Vibrato Valtat.
So Nicholls§ currently has that Timeform-type squiggle§ against his name: unreliable, uncertain, unsure how his horses will run. The usually beaming and bounce had wanned to a Mourhino pallor and shrug on the racetrack yesterday.
And, with questions already about Ptit Zig’s jumping, the trainer added to punters’ worries when he opined to the Racing Post: ‘I just hope it’s not too soon to run Ptit Zig after he had a hard race at Ascot’.
Al Ferof’s form figures first run back since 2011 are 1111; three grade 2 and one grade 3, and he seems sure to have been readied for this. His form on a right-hand track is five wins, five placed out of 10.
I shall side with Al Ferof (I took 3.65), though in fact the BETDAQ orange was almost true odds at 101% this morning, which is 100-101; you could back the entire field to £100 fixed-profit yield and it would only cost you a pound.
Having gone all out for Nicholls yesterday, I ended up with the tea-shirt ‘Buddy can you spare a dime’; so, with that dime difference in the market for this, I’ll keep dipping into the orange, as a good place to arb, trying to get back some of the losses.
NOT SO MUCH GIVEAWAY AS TAKEAWAY..
2.35 Huntingdon This race is called Fred’s Festive Giveaway. Is that the same ‘giveaway’ as the 127% Total SP of the Becher Chase yesterday? To be fair (!), not as bad as the 131% of the London National.
After his six in a row, containing his third consecutive Sandown hat-trick, Gary Moore will be popular with Clayton, who challenges Waterlord from another stable in form.
But there were big offers on BETDAQ this morning about hidden-horse Midnight Cowboy: by the time I was writing this after breakfast, 10.0 had been squeezed out of the orange by some of you playing for 2% commission.
‘Hidden’ because found afterwards to have been unfit for his second run (scoped badly post race) and given a quiet run back in a bumper.
DJAKADAM BANKER IN THE PUNCHESTOWN CHASE
1.15 Punchestown Another (not quite so) hidden horse is Balkinstown, whose dam gets mudlovers who win at Punchestown, and is thrown in under a 7lb claimer. At 6.6 the win, I took slightly better than evens a place to save my stake.
1.50 Punchestown (John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase) There’s a brave try here by another pair of old boys, the 2012 winner of this Flemenstar – he’s a glass horse these days, with just four runs in two years – and Hidden Cyclone, who beat him at Navan.
Foxrock has gone close in a Grade 1 but has managed to win only in a handicap since emerging from his novice career, and his best form is January-February.
Clarcam was runner-up to Ptit Zig at Down Royal in October. That’s where I came in, when I was mulling over that one as a potential banker.
Well, we saw yesterday how Willie Mullins had Don Poli so fit that he was able to grind it out against the Grand National winner, and in this one has Djakadam, second in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and also runner-up at Punchestown afterwards to Don Cossack, who won the John Durkan last year.
This drop back in trip on heavy ground should be no problem for Djakadam, who has won twice before after a break but not first time last backend because he was sent straight to the Hennessy at Newbury.
From a betting point of view, he’s backable at 2.98 in 102% list of offers, ahead of his novice stablemate, Valseur Lido, 12lb his inferior in the ratings and who prefers better ground.
Even further behind, strictly on form, is another novice, third in the market, mud-loving Gilgamboa, the one I fear most.
DAQMAN BETS (staked to win 20 points, except the banker nap, a double-your-money bet this morning but charged to the account at SP)
BET 3.5pts win and place BALKINSTOWN (1.15 Punchestown)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) DJAKADAM (1.50 Punchestown)
BET 7.5pts win AL FEROF (2.00 Huntingdon)
BET 2pts win and place MIDNIGHT COWBOY (2.35 Huntingdon)
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