WHO’D BE A TIPSTER? DAQMAN’S DAY ON THE EDGE AT CHELTENHAM: In an excruciating day at Cheltenham yesterday, riding the office chair at home, Daqman ‘lost more weight than a jockey in a sauna’ (his words). Even his winning nap, Duffle Coat, was a nail-biter, as six races in a row went 12F222. In race order (BETDAQ offers in brackets):
✔️ WON 2-1 DUFFLE COAT (3.65) Got behind and 8.0 in running; late progress, led run-in
🤔 2ND 15-2 BERMEO (11.0) Went third 2 out; stayed on; beaten threeparts of a length.
🤔 2ND-last faller 6-1 GUMBALL (8.7) Two lengths up, going best, when fell two out.
🤔 2ND 14-1 SPIRITOFTHEGAMES (22.0) Held up in rear, a length down at the last.
🤔 2ND 4-1 MRS MILNER (6.7) Beaten a neck in a tussle after the last.
🤔 2ND 9-2 WHATSUPWITHYOU Led two out until caught run-in.
After all that, Daqman’s staking plan prevailed. His 10 bets at Cheltenham totted up overall to a loss of just 0.65 points!
FORTUNE COOKIE RATES SUPERNAP STATUS AMONG SIX RACES ON TV: Daqman is back for the third day at Cheltenham with four races, plus his Fortune Cookie alias a supernap at Punchestown (2.10) in the Morgiana Hurdle, and a shot at the Southern National at Fontwell (3.15). All six races on terrestrial TV. Daqman leads Pricewise 3-2, and his nap is 4-from-7 with a profit of 27.27.
🔹 PLAY ON CONSISTENT DISCORAMA
🔹 WILLIE RELIES ON ONE RUNNER
🔹 WELL-IN KETTLE LOVES THE MUD
🔹 PSYCHO FOR GREATWOOD THRILLER
🔹 BETDAQ 6.0 FINE NATIONAL VALUE
PLAY ON CONSISTENT DISCORAMA
⭕ 1.50 Cheltenham This Grade 3 over more than 3m 3f goes to young horses aged seven and eight (8-10), with Colin Tizzard 2-from-4 in the last four seasons.
His winner last year, West Approach, had Ramses De Teillee well behind. Ramses has just 10lb to overturn a near-25-lengths defeat.
West Approach was second – pair clear – to Frodon here last month but Discorama ran third in this grade (lost shoe) in the Ultima at the Cheltenham festival (2.5f shorter) and second in the 2019 NH Chase (3m 7.5f).
Discorama’s trainer, Paul Nolan, had Mrs Milner among my attack of seconditis yesterday (beaten a neck) and Robbie Power will be keen to make amends.
Captain Drake would have won the Midlands National but for blundering at the last: Cheltenham might not be his bag.
Yala Enki was third in both the Coral Welsh National and the Haydock National Trial, but he’s giving weight to Discorama who was short-headed at Galway last month. BETDAQ 3.3 taken.
WILLIE RELIES ON ONE RUNNER
⭕ 2.10 Punchestown (Morgiana Hurdle) Willie Mullins has won nine in a row with blanket entries in this Champion Hurdle test, from which he’s launched Hurricane Fly, Nicholls Canyon and Faugheen.
Today he significantly relies on one horse, his County Hurdle winner Saint Roi. At aged five, he’s already rated higher than Supersundae.
But the formbook says he has a fight on to overcome Willie’s archrival Gordon Elliott and Abacadabras, the Supreme runner-up who was also second to Envoi Allen in the Royal Bond.
WELL-IN ‘KETTLE’ LOVES THE MUD
⭕ 2.25 Cheltenham (Cheltenham Chase) Defi Du Seuil won the 2019 JLT and, after taking today’s race a year ago, and went on to land a hat-trick which included the Tingle Creek. That puts him on 169, clear in this double bid now after the withdrawal of Rouge Vif (164).
Put The Kettle On won the Arkle Trial here last November but it was still a surprise (at 16-1) when he won the Arkle itself. ‘Kettle’ gets 10lb from ‘Defi’ and is unbeaten on deep ground. BETDAQ 3.3.
Defi Du Seuil’s soft-heavy chase form since January 2017 is 1111114; Put The Kettle On 111; Riders On The Storm 3F111F.
Riders landed a hat-trick at Ascot and Aintree, but fell in the Ryanair at Cheltenham. It was his second successive crash-landing at the festival.
I say this not just because I thought he should have won for me on Gumball but here’s the worry about the jockey on the favourite, Richard Johnson. All wins in last 36 rides have been over hurdles; chase form in that time misses strike badly: 2PP02303320F
PSYCHO FOR GREATWOOD THRILLER
⭕ 3.00 Cheltenham (Greatwood Hurdle) Paul Nicholls aims high with his youngsters of potential. Sometimes it’s too soon, like Saint Sonnet in the Autumn Gold Cup yesterday.
But he won this 2m Grade-3 hurdle in 2015 with the four-year-old Old Guard (we were on!), following his similar success in 2011 with Brampour, and David Pipe’s with Dell Arca (2013).
Now here’s Nicholls with Sir Psycho, fifth in the Triumph Hurdle here on the soft, who ran over further as a pipe opener recently. I took 12.0 on the BETDAQ Betting Exchange.
Alan King, who has won two of the last three Greatwoods, saddles both Edwardstone and Harambe, both on the cusp of the stats.
I’m a bit worried about Edwardstone that his best form is on sharp, roundabout tracks (Aintree and Wincanton). Harambe won the Greatwood last year (beating yesterday’s so-unlucky Gumball).
There was money last night for The Shunter, with Robbie Power again in the spotlight. His move to Emmett Mullins has fiven him a new lease of life. He’s versatile; he stays well; he’s off bottomweight. BETDAQ 12.0.
BETDAQ 6.0 FINE NATIONAL VALUE
⭕ 3.15 Fontwell (Southern National) Christmas In April won the Southern National and the Devon National in the first two months of the year, and is up 17lb for three wins out of five, starting here at Fontwell.
In eight chases, Cloudy Glen has won one, when he beat one horse home. His high rating comes from back in the 2018-19 season.
Though 12 years old now, Doing Fine, a course winner and distance winner was resurgent in the summer, and his Durham National run should have put him right for this.
Diable De Sivola is 0-12 over fences but might improve for the trip after a wind op, and the race hinges on whether the Tizzard horse does his job.
Yesterday the yard was all smiles after Eldorado Allen skipped home but then had three pulled up consecutively! Maybe BETDAQ 6.0 offer Doing Fine is the safest take.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Cheltenham (win 10)
BET 4.25pts win DISCORAMA
2.10 Punchestown
FORTUNE COOKIE and SUPERNAP
BET 20pts win SAINT ROI
2.25 Cheltenham (win 10)
BET 4.25pts win PUT THE KETTLE ON
3.00 Cheltenham (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 4.25pts win SIR PSYCHO
BULL’S-EYE BET 4.25pts win THE SHUNTER
3.15 Fontwell (win 20)
BET 4pts win DOING FINE
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