DAY OF THREE ‘CLASSICS’: OAKS DOUBLE AND DERBY: What happens when you get showers on a firm surface? Answer: Saturday afternoon results of 14-1 (twice), 16-1 (twice), 20-1 (three), 25-1 (three), 33-1 and 40-1… to name but a few, as they say! Today Daqman concentrates on three ‘Classics’: the French Oaks, Munster Oaks and Cork Derby.
HOW ENGLAND CAN WIN MATCH WITH THE FRENCH: There was no change yesterday in Daqman’s value challenge to Pricewise, with the current score 30-9 to Daqman. His profit is +23 to Pricewise’s loss of -84. They clash in the French Oaks this afternoon, in which Daqman expects an English-owned winner trained in France and ridden by Frankie Dettori.
FRANKIE TO LUMINATE THE OAKS
3.05 Chantilly (Prix de Diane, French Oaks): In the good old bad old days of great fillies like Allez France, Dahlia, Nobiliary and Three Troikas, the Prix Saint Alary and Prix de Diane were stepping-stones to greatness.
In the 21st century, dual Arc winner Treve won the Diane. In 2009-10, Stacelita and Sarafina won both Saint Alary and Diane but were no match for the colts.
I’ve painted this scene to point up the company Karl Burke’s Laurens will be keeping if she can add to her Saint Alary victory in this afternoon’s Diane.
The Fillies Mile winner was something of a sitting duck in the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas when she led half a mile out and was caught by one with the benefit of an outing.
The third filly home, Happily, went on to finish in the same position in the Irish equivalent. She now has a handy inside stall, whereas Laurens is drawn out wide.
Laurens’ Saint Alary came at the expense of With You, though there was just a short-head between them, and With You’s better fancied stablemate, Luminate, is in the one stall with Frankie Dettori taking over.
Luminate was badly impeded in the Prix Cleopatre, the ‘moral’ winner though second, going down a short-neck to Castellar, giving that one 3lb.
And it could be Highclere Thoroughbreds who are looking to line this one up in the hall of fame if Frankie and trainer Freddy Head can land this Oaks.
Again, the French Guineas suggested that the fast finishers in fifth and sixth, Barkaa and Musis Amica, would come out on top over further.
The Aga Khan’s Shahnaza looked strong in beating the subsequent Royaumont winner in a Listed at Longchamp’s reopening but, as one who hasn’t even raced at Group level, she seems a vulnerable favourite, there only on potential and hearsay.
VERDICT: A sunny, drying day in Chantilly, a negative for those drawn really wide, Laurens and Shahnaza among them.
Guineas form in England and Ireland points to Happily, sister to Gleneagles and Marvellous and, from Guineas form in France, I’ll take Musis Amica (in 7).
But Luminate could prove special if Frankie can employ her stamina in what could be a bunch finish. Trainer Carlos Laffon-Parias says he’s ‘quite confident’ about Castellar; what does that say for Luminate?
Daqman’s 1-2-3: Luminate, Musis Amica, Happily, taking 9.2 and 8.0 on BETDAQ about the first two.
SHE’S THE WORD AT MUNSTER 34.0
3.50 Cork (Munster Oaks) Some very smart fillies have won this, like Jim Bolger’s 2011 Ribblesdale winner, Banimpire (it’s too close to Ascot for such a double this year).
Dermot Weld’s four-year-old scorer Sapphire (2012) went on to take the Fillies and Mares on Champions Day.
Weld (Jaega) and Bolger (Glamorous Approach) both have fillies at the front of the market today.
They face three from Aidan O’Brien, who has won four times in the decade, but his best shot, Flattering, seems to need soft ground.
Bloomfield has beaten Glamorous Approach twice this year on soft-heavy ground. Weld also worries that 3.4 offer Jaega needs rain.
It seems to me there’s a fair chance of a turn-up, like last year’s 20-1 winner. I shall have my pound on Written Word (BETDAQ 34.0), who’s run green so far. Her sire gets 20% winners on good to firm.
OVER THE MOON DERBY DOUBLE..
4.20 Cork (Cork Derby) Moonmeister last year interrupted a flow of continuous four-year-old winners. He’s seven years old now and hasn’t placed since in seven starts but trainer Tony Martin has always been a law unto himself in handicaps.
Gustavus Vassa also looks suspect on autumn form but, again, you can’t discount Willie Mullins.
Apparition came back to form on the last day on good to firm and should be staying on at the business end.
Tandem, even older than Moonmeister, has his ground for the first time since taking a similar handicap at Leopardstown last June.
Alcatraz is a firm ground winner but has scored only at 1m 2f. However, the consistent Clongowes won last year’s Ulster Derby, a similar handicap, on a sound surface. I took 8.4 in the BETDAQ orange, and 10.0 Moonmeister.
NAP: I keep putting off going to the dentist, but Open Wide (5.25 Salisbury) could pay for the chair, dropped in class after going close several times.
Loves firm ground, and 4.2 in the orange didn’t require too much extraction from my BETDAQ bank.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.05 Chantilly, French Oaks (each win 30)
BET 4.25pts win MUSIS AMICA
BET 3.5pts win LUMINATE
3.50 Cork, Munster Oaks (win 30 and win 20)
BET 1pt win and place WRITTEN WORD
BET 8pts win JAEGA
4.20 Cork Derby (each win 20)
BET 2.75pts win and place CLONGOWES
BET 2pts win and place MOONMEISTER
5.25 Salisbury (nap to win 20)
BET 6.25pts win OPEN WIDE
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