EYES UP! EYES DOWN FOR VALUE: On a tricky day for tipsters everywhere, Daqman managed just one winning play when he drew level with Pricewise (4-4) for the jumps season, thanks to Snake Eyes (WON 3-1). It’s all eyes on their challenge today in the Peterborough Chase (2.05) at Huntingdon. Daqman’s current positions:
Naps: 3 out of 5 (60%)
Bull’s-Eye Bets: 221 points profit
Lays: 8 in a row (100%)
Value: Daqman 4 Pricewise 4 (total 112-63)
TIME TO REMEMBER: Oscar Time (WON 25-1) was third in Daqman’s Becher-Chase ABC Guide on Thursday, following a Hennessy top six for Many Clouds (WON 8-1) but Daqman’s biggest find of the season so far, Balbriggan, a huge gamble to win the Troytown Chase, was tragically put down after the Becher.
WAY CLEAR FOR TWINLIGHT DOUBLE
2.15 Cork (Hilly Way Chase) Beef Or Salmon and Golden Silver dominated this for two or three years apiece, and Twinlight looks a solid nap for back-to-back success, which would make the Willie Mullins stable returns in the race 1111131 since 2007.
Twinlight took advantage of errors by others in the race last season but returned at Navan in November to slam Days Hotel, the 2012 Hilly Way winner, in the style of an improved animal.
Stablemate Felix Yonger has been a nearly horse most of his time at Graded level, and the Grand Annual winner, Alderwood, is now 10, rising 11.
Foildubh is another who just falls short, albeit he was leading at the third last in 2013 when he fell and left the race to Twinlight.
BOSTON BOB SHOULD BE SPOT ON NOW
1.30 Punchestown There’s a ceiling of a double thickness here. Horses rarely win with more than 11st 3lb. They must be mature but not oldies (no winners over the age of nine; none aged four).
If you follow these trends, you are left with little more than half the field and, of those remaining, only trainer Robert Tyner (50% strike rate with last eight runners) is in peak form.
Knock Beauty pulled up at Fairyhouse on the last day but landed a hat-trick after just such a run at the start of the year, and now has a mark 22lb lower over hurdles than fences.
2.00 Punchestown Chase BETDAQ gives you a big-value chance in this, with the orange adding up to a low 104% this morning. The last time the race had a field this size, the bookies bet to 117% SP.
Some very smart horses have won this – Kicking King, The Listener – despite races of very few runners, and seven of the last nine have been favourite or joint ‘jolly’.
Surprise Cheltenham Gold Cup scorer Lord Windermere faces a drop back in trip with his stable badly out of form, and was very easy to back, early mouse, at around 9.4.
Four of Jim Culloty’s last five starters have been between 20-1 and 100-1 SP as virtual no-hopers, and have been beaten, collectively, a total of 160 lengths. The other one was fancied (a 7-1 shot) but was 24-lengths fourth.
The improver Don Cossack meets the old hand, Boston Bob, with very little between them at the front of the market, but with Don Cossack needing to make up 5lb on the official ratings.
I’m not yet convinced. He steps up to the top grade after a double in which he’s beaten only seven rivals. He stopped Wonderful Charm on the last day, when that one should have had 8lb in hand.
In the end there was at least a 16lb turnaround of the official ratings but the time was slow for the returned ‘yielding’ going at Down Royal that day. It was much softer, and the odds-on Wonderful Charm did not act well on it.
Boston Bob was also well beaten at Down Royal on the last day but that was his first run back. He won the Punchestown Gold Cup in April, and should be spot on today.
SUN COMES FROM BEHIND A CLOUD
1.50 Kelso (Scottish Borders National) Big southern stables (David Pipe with Virtuel D’Oudon and Venetia Williams with Un ion Jack d’Ycy) have never won this, nor have runners carrying more than 11st 7lb. Some 60% of winners had already finished first or second at Kelso.
The Pipe candidate is only a novice, though first-time blinkers may help. Venetia’s could be a marathon type, the way he won up the Towcester hill, albeit so slow that the stewards’ observer car stalled twice.
Scotswell is hard to fancy on this year’s form but was second to Royale Knight in the race last season, 4lb higher, and has James Reveley – two wins in this since 2007 – in the saddle.
Scotswell pulled up behind Royale Knight at Sedgefield in October, when Lackamon was second and Sun Cloud fourth. That’s an important run back for Sun Cloud (5.8 on BETDAQ this morning).
He proved his stamina when he came from behind and went clear in the North Yorkshire Grand National at the start of the year.
EDUARD COULD APE GREYSTOKE STARS
2.05 Huntingdon (Peterborough Chase) The Greystoke tarzans, One Man and Monets Garden, put the Richards family on the map but the yard has been quiet in the big races lately. Until Eduard.
‘I’ve had full confidence in this horse since the day he ran in a bumper,’ said Nicky Richards after Eduard took the Future Champions Chase at Ayr, winning 20 lengths and running all over an Alan King Arkle horse, Valdez.
Eduard remained on 155 after he was beaten next time out but the handicapper might want to revise his opinion, since Eduard was the ‘moral’ that day, giving weight to the winner, going down little more than a length.
That winner was Many Clouds (the race was very solid, containing Holywell and Green Flag), and Many Clouds went on to leap 9lb in the ratings after taking the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury.
That was Eduard’s first run back and he’s still only six, albeit seven in three weeks or so, five years younger than Wishfull Thinking, gallant winner of the Old Roan at Aintree, which might have been Eduard’s first target but Richards thought better of it.
We will have just five minutes to judge the chance of another six-year-old in this, Wonderful Charm, after his conqueror at Down Royal, Don Cossack, runs in the Punchestown Chase.
Both Eduard and Wonderful Charm need the rain to stay away. Huntingdon has provided some fresh ground along the inner and was hoping for only mild showers.
Sam Waley-Cohen yesterday rode the National fences like Bryan Marshall, Fred Winter and Ruby Walsh combined in a master-class of all the skills required on the 13-year-old Oscar Time.
But he’ll need another monster ride to win this on Rajdhani Express, who has looked a monkey this year, and last scored in April, 2013. Another who doesn’t want any more rain.
Eduard’s price seemed acceptable, considering that it came within a 102% list of offers in the orange, at the time of writing, and I make him my new young star, after the demise of Balbriggan (such a shame).
3.35 Huntingdon Henry Daly targets this race (returns for the stable since 2006 are 1P31), and seems to have Upbeat Cobbler, a dual winner over hurdles, lined up.
She should come on for her second at Southwell, and her nearest rivals in the BETDAQ exchanges this morning are two maidens.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Stakes represent chance from 1 to 10, which would be a banker)
BET 4pts win KNOCK BEAUTY (1.30 Punchestown)
BET 6pts win SUN CLOUD (1.50 Kelso)
BET 7pts won BOSTON BOB (2.00 Punchestown)
BET 7pts win EDUARD (2.05 Huntingdon)
BET 8pts win (nap) TWINLIGHT (2.15 Cork)
BET 5pts win UPBEAT COBBLER (3.35 Huntingdon)
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