Buffalo Bills (7-5, 6-6 ATS) @ Denver Broncos (9-3, 6-6 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Denver -10 (47.5)
Significant Injuries
Buffalo: TE Chris Gragg (out– knee), WR Mike Williams (out– calf), DE Jarius Wynn (out– knee)
Denver: TE Jacob Tamme (questionable– ribs), S Quinton Carter (questionable– knee), DT Terrance Knighton (questionable– elbow), TE Julius Thomas (questionable– ankle), RB Montee Ball (out– groin), RB Ronnie Hillman (out– foot), CB Kayvon Webster (out– shoulder)
Recent Trends
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Buffalo is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record
Buffalo is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after surrendering fewer than 15 points in their previous game
Denver is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 December games
Denver is 2-5 ATS after allowing fewer than 150 passing yards in their previous game
The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 4-1 in Buffalo’s last 5 road games
The UNDER is 6-1 in Buffalo’s last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 5-1 in Denver’s last 6 games vs. AFC opponents
The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Buffalo
1. The Bills are 7-5 and have a legitimate chance at a postseason berth– they’re simply too good to be on the wrong side of a 10-point number. In Denver’s last home game they squeaked out a 3-point win over a Miami team that split their two games with Buffalo this season– expect a similar type of result this week.
2. The Buffalo defense has been positively dominant this season, ranking 2nd in points allowed (18.1 ppg) and 5th in yards allowed. While the Broncos do have a good offense, they haven’t been nearly as good on that side of the ball as they were last season and they’ve been consistently held in check by quality defenses, producing fewer than 30 points against Kansas City (twice), Seattle, New England, and St. Louis. The Bills are surrendering fewer points per game than all of those teams, so it will be a surprise if the Denver offense is able to score enough to cover the 10-point number.
3. The Denver defense played well over the first half of the season but cracks have begun to emerge, and a schedule featuring offensively-challenged teams like Oakland, St. Louis, and Kansas City is the only thing that has prevented a statistical collapse. In their last three games against teams that ranked 16th or better in total offense the Broncos have surrendered 100 combined points, while the Bills have produced 64 combined points in their last two contests.
Three reasons to back Denver
1. Denver is simply a much better team than Buffalo. They’ve won more games, they have a far superior offense that’s led by a future Hall of Fame quarterback, and their defense is allowing fewer yards per game. Plus, it’s not like covering a 10-point number is any big thing for this Denver team– six of their past 7 wins have come by 13 points or more.
2. The Broncos have an explosive offense that averages over 410 total yards and 30 points per game. The last time the Bills faced such an offense was back in Week 5, when they hosted New England and were lit up for 37 points. Expect Denver to exploit the plodding Buffalo linebackers and frustrate the renowned Bills pass rush with a steady diet of short-to-intermediate passes, which have become Peyton Manning’s specialty at this stage of his career.
3. To call the Buffalo offense “mediocre” is being kind, as they currently rank 20th or worse in total yards per game, pass yards per game, and rush yards per game. They have little chance of success against Denver’s 3rd-ranked defense, a unit that’s surrendering just 72.7 rushing yards per game. It’s going to be up to Kyle Orton and a limited receiving corps to keep pace with Manning and the explosive Denver offense, and I don’t like their chances.
Prediction
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