Kansas City Chiefs (7-5, 8-4 ATS) @ Arizona Cardinals (9-3, 8-4 ATS)
ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Kansas City -1 (39.5)
Significant Injuries
Kansas City: DE Allen Bailey (out– concussion), WR Junior Hemingway (out– concussion)
Arizona: WR Larry Fitzgerald (questionable– knee), LB Larry Foote (questionable– foot), OT Jared Veldheer (questionable– ankle), RB Andre Ellington (out– hip), DT Ed Stinson (out– toe), S Tyrann Mathieu (out– thumb)
Recent Trends
Kansas City is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit home loss
Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record
Kansas City is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games
Arizona is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games
Arizona is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss
The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 10-1 in Kansas City’s last 11 games following a double-digit home loss
The UNDER is 6-2 in Kansas City’s last 8 games overall
The UNDER is 3-0-1 in Arizona’s last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record
Three reasons to back Kansas City
1. Beating a quality team on the road would be nothing new for the Chiefs, who have notched road victories over playoff contenders Miami, San Diego, and Buffalo this season. And calling Arizona a “quality” team may be a stretch despite their record, as the Cards have lost two straight and are sinking fast without starting quarterback Carson Palmer.
2. Kansas City has a dominant defense that ranks 5th in points allowed and 1st against the pass, so it’s difficult to imaging the Arizona offense, a unit that has produced fewer than 20 points in 3 consecutive games, having much success here. The Cardinals are going to have to test that vaunted Chiefs secondary because they simply haven’t been able to run the ball all season, as they rank 31st in rush yards per game and will be without starting tailback Andre Ellington due to a hip injury.
3. Kansas City’s Alex Smith will be the best quarterback on the field on Sunday and he’ll be facing an Arizona secondary that has been dreadful this season, surrendering more pass yards per game than all but 5 teams leaguewide. Plus, the Cardinals will be without starting safety Tyrann Mathieu, who is nursing a thumb injury, so they’re going to be even more vulnerable than usual on the back end.
Three reasons to back Arizona
1. This is desperation time for the 9-3 Cards: they simply must pick up a win here to alleviate the pressure they’re suddenly under after losing back-to-back games. Fortunately for them they’re playing at home, where they’re 6-0 this season and have covered in 5 consecutive games, and they’re facing the Chiefs, a team that lost to the lowly Raiders two weeks ago. Offensive issues notwithstanding, Arizona should be able to get the job done this week.
2. Kansas City enters this game ranked 28th in total offense and 31st in pass yards per game, as only the New York Jets have passed for fewer yards this season. That means they won’t be able to exploit the lone weakness of the Arizona defense– the secondary– and will instead be forced to test the Cardinals’ fierce front seven, a group that is allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards per game. This is a great matchup for the Arizona defense.
3. Arizona quarterback Drew Stanton has not played particularly well over the past three weeks but he’ll just be asked to “manage” this game because the Cardinals should be able to run the ball effectively against a Kansas City defense that has been awful against the run this season, surrendering nearly 140 yards per game on the ground. Taking a bit of pressure off of Stanton should pay immediate dividends for the Cards, who have been thirsting for a matchup like this ever since Stanton was forced into the lineup three weeks ago.
Prediction
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