San Francisco 49ers (7-5, 6-6 ATS) @ Oakland Raiders (1-11, 6-6 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: San Francisco -8 (40.5)
Significant Injuries
San Francisco: CB Tramaine Brock (questionable– hamstring), OT Anthony Davis (out– concussion), TE Vance McDonald (out– back), DT Glenn Dorsey (out– forearm)
Oakland: CB Tarell Brown (questionable– foot), LB Sio Moore (questionable– hip), CB Neiko Thorpe (questionable– hand), S Jonathan Dowling (out– back), OT Menelik Watson (out– ankle)
Recent Trends
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record
San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss
Oakland is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game
Oakland is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games
Oakland is 2-15 ATS in their last 17 Week 14 games
The OVER is 6-0 in San Francisco’s last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record
The UNDER is 4-1 in San Francisco’s last 5 games overall
The OVER is 5-1 in Oakland’s last 6 home games
The OVER is 4-1 in Oakland’s last 5 games overall
Three reasons to back San Francisco
1. The Niners are a contending team that desperately needs a win to maintain position in the crowded NFC playoff race, while Oakland is a 1-11 laughingstock that has already suffered 6 double-digit losses this season. The Raiders lost 52-0 to St. Louis last week and while this one may not get quite that ugly, it won’t be competitive. A San Francisco bet is the only sensible play here.
2. The Raiders have the NFL’s worst offense by any measure: they rank 32nd (a.k.a. dead last) in both yards per game and points scored and have produced 14 points or fewer 8 times, including last week’s shutout in St. Louis. The Niners, meanwhile, rank 4th in total defense. This one could get ugly… of course, that would be nothing new for Oakland.
3. The Raiders have a decent secondary but they’ve been entirely unable to stop opposing rushing attacks this season (27th in rushing defense), and San Francisco has a run-first offense that features two capable backs in Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde. The Niners will try to cram it right down Oakland’s throat and there’s no evidence to suggest that the Raiders will be able to stop them.
Three reasons to back Oakland
1. The Raiders picked up a win over Kansas City in their last home game, so they’ve certainly proven that they can hang with (and beat) quality teams, and they should be plenty motivated this week as they host Bay Area rival San Francisco. The Niners scored just 3 points last week in a 16-point home loss to division rival Seattle.
2. Oakland has steadily improved on the defensive side of the ball and they now rank in the top-half of the league in both total defense and passing defense. They have the friendliest matchup imaginable this week, as the San Francisco offense has been struggling mightily in recent weeks, producing 17 points or fewer in 5 of their past 6 games. It’s hard to imagine the Niners covering an 8-point number if they aren’t able to reach 20 points, and based on recent history I doubt they’re going to get there.
3. While the Oakland offense has experienced the types of difficulties you expect when you’re starting a rookie quarterback, they’ve been pretty resilient in responding to adversity, as the team has covered in 9 of their past 12 games after producing fewer than 15 points in the previous game. Considering that the Raiders were embarrassed on the road in St. Louis last week, a bounce-back performance at home feels like a strong possibility.
Prediction
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