100% START TO THE GRAND NATIONAL: The Grand National meeting at Aintree is launched today without one of its star acts, Bravemansgame, for registration reasons. But the scene is set with BETDAQ the big news of the day for all those wanting a change of betting scene: offers for two races this morning totalled 100% (a level playing-field) and new customers pay no commission for 100 days. Tell your friends!
Headlines
BETDAQ SETS AINTREE STAGE
BO CAN BURST ZENTA BUBBLE
CONFLATED BOWLS ‘EM OVER
HILL TRUE HURDLES CHAMP
GAMBLE ON WINGED LEADER
RACHAEL’S OUT ON HER OWN
REMINDER: DAQMAN’S ABC GUIDE TO THE GRAND NATIONAL
BETDAQ SETS AINTREE STAGE
⭕ 1.45 Aintree (Manifesto Novices’ Chase) LAYS LOGIC Only one favourite has ever won this race (2013) since its inauguration 15 years ago. No trainer with runners today, and no jockey with rides, has won the race previously.
Saint Roi, third in the 2022 Champion Hurdle, has run four chases this season for just one win at Leopardstown in December, his rating steady.
Stage Star (pictured below) is up 15lb for four out of five; went clear in the Turners and is reckoned a Ryanair horse for next year.
He is the first Turners winner to contest this Aintree equivalent and, as a front-runner, will need plenty in reserve for the long runs on the flat after the second last.
Banbridge, the Arkle Trial winner at Cheltenham in November, and second in the Irish Arkle, swerved the Turners because of the soft ground.
AMAZING BETDAQ value Both Banbridge and Stage Star are round about 9-5 but the Betdaq Betting Exchange offers add up to 100% and are a maximum of 104% all races at Aintree as I write, with 0% commission to new customers, so they would be betting on a level playing-field.
That’s the really big news of the day at a time when betting is going through a tumultuous time.
BO CAN BURST ZENTA BUBBLE
⭕ 2.20 Aintree (Anniversary Hurdle) LAYS LOGIC: Only Apple Jade has won this for the fillies in the last nine years but they have the favourite here in Zenta, third in the Triumph Hurdle, who is following in her hoofprints for Willie Mullins.
Bo Zenith missed the Triumph for this better ground after winning the Victor Ludorum, giving 10lb to the subsequent Scottish Juvenile Final winner, when he was a good 20lb clear of the remainder.
Nicky Henderson’s previous winners of this had won the Triumph or the Scottish equivalent, but the Golden Horn filly Pawapuri has had just the one start: 4th in the Adonis when the one-two was Nusret and Perseus Way.
Perseus Way, hampered that day, and now 3lb better off, has every chance of reversing those placings.
BETDAQ value 8.8 Bo Zenith, 19 Perseus Way
CONFLATED BOWLS ‘EM OVER
⭕ 2.55 Aintree Bowl A step up to 2m 5f in the Ascot Chase proved a rebirth for former two-mile champion Shishkin.
His attempt here to raise the trip yet again – to 3m 1f – is made easier by the defection of Bravemansgame (ownership dispute), and by the poor recent form of his main market rivals, A Plus Tard and Ahoy Senor.
The Gold Cup win of 2022 seemed to deplete A Plus Tard and he’s been collecting letters by his name, pulled up the last twice. Now needs to bounce back with a bigger leap than did Shishkin.
Ahoy Senor, a faller when leading in the Gold Cup in March, won the Mildmay on tomorrow’s card here last year, but L’Homme Presse and Bravemansgame failed to run anywhere near their form that day.
Wetherby and Kempton defeats this year suggest Ahoy Senor would have been beaten out of sight here by Bravemansgame and, when he was runner-up back at Aintree in December, he showed very poor fluency over his fences and springheeled Noble Yeats made him look a novice.
Noble Yeats ran fourth for gold at Cheltenham, just behind Conflated, who must be my selection today.
The Gold Cup was only Conflated’s third race since beaten a length in this Aintree Bowl last year by its back-to-back winner, Clan des Obeaux.
Minella Indo had been the Cheltenham gold-medal holder when Conflated earlier beat him in the Irish Gold Cup.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 7.2 Conflated
HILL TRUE HURDLES CHAMP
⭕ 3.30 Aintree Hurdle Barring accidents, Constitution Hill (pictured below) will join the ranks of champion hurdlers who went on to take this, achieved last year by Epatante, and before that by Buveur d’Air, both from his stable.
GAMBLE ON WINGED LEADER
⭕ 4.05 Aintree (Foxhunters) Latenightpass – second then first in this in the last two seasons – could be another On The Fringe, who won it back to back (2015-16), or is three times lucky too much to ask?
It’s On The Line, half-brother to a Welsh Grand National winner, and second in the hunters at the Cheltenham festival, would be the first to win this as a six-year-old since Spartan Missile in 1978.
Famous Clermont weakened only on the run-in at Cheltenham and this Wincanton and Larkhill winner will enjoy today’s better ground and type of track but will both he and It’s On The Line be in the same form after the exertions of that day.
Winged Leader was headed only in the final strides for the hunters race at the Cheltenham Festival in 2022 when only eight and has completed a Points hat-trick this Spring, waiting for this. The gamble of the race.
The Balko grey Dento Des Obeaux, from cross-country stock, has also been setting up a PTP sequence and looks the right type to enjoy this adventure.
BETDAQ value 5.5 Winged Leader, 8 Famous Clermont, 13.5 It’s On the Line, 21 Dento Des Obeaux
RACHAEL’S OUT ON HER OWN
⭕ 4.40 Aintree (Red Rum Chase) There has been only one winner carrying more than 11st 1lb in the decade and, when compared with last year’s result, the ratings reveal a race of 7lb lower quality.
It all goes to make Third Time Lucki’s 12st look prohibitive. But recent form gives him bits of encouragement.
Global Citizen, the Grand Annual winner last March, was third in the same race this year, trying to make all but outrun after the last.
Third Time Lucki, hampered fourth, is slightly better off with Global Citizen, who needs deep ground.
Douglas Talking has seen his rating revised a stone and he was quickly backed in to head this market, though he has to step up in grade here after winning two four-horse-only races.
Grey Diamond has a high cruising speed and has set up a good partnership with Sam Twiston-Davies, gradually getting into the money but with plenty on here off 142.
Dancing On My Own was runner-up in this race last year and has been lightly raced this term, clearly laid out for it again, with a change of jockey. Rachael Blackmore’s here!
BETDAQ value 10.5 Dancing On My Own
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.45 Aintree (win 18, nap)
BET 10pts win STAGE STAR
2.20 Aintree (win 30)
BET 3.75pts win BO ZENITH
BET 1.6pts win PERSEUS WAY
2.55 Aintree (win 30)
BET 5pts win CONFLATED
4.05 Aintree (win 20)
BET 4.75pts win WINGED LEADER
BET 1pt win and place DENTO DES OBEAUX
4.40 Aintree (win 50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 5pts win DANCING ON MY OWN
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