BACK-TO-BACK BEST BETS WIN: Daqman landed yet another best bet yesterday through Pass The Time (nap, WON 13-8), which followed The Tourard Man (banker nap, won 10-11 on Tuesday).
DOUBLES AND 20-1 TREBLE UP: Pass The Time was doubled and trebled with Don’t Be (WON 2-1) and Silver Mirage (WON 4-6), giving him a 20-1 trio and bringing the day’s profit to almost 73 points.
BECHER A KEY NATIONAL RACE: After yesterday’s look at the Tingle Creek, horse by horse, today is the turn of Saturday’s Becher Chase at Aintree. Amberleigh House, Earth Summit and Silver Birch all won the Grand National after getting their experiences of the National fences in this race.
BECHER TO IT, BOYS! BOOM BOOM!
A Carries 10st 12lb or less (17 out of 23). Jockey claims not included in my analysis today.
B Aged nine to 12 (16 out of 23)
C Already won beyond 3m (8 out of 10)
D Already raced over Grand National fences (5-10)
E Trained Nigel Twiston-Davies or Paul Nicholls (8 out of 22)
ABCD Shakalakaboomboom
Hasn’t won since back-to-back graded races in 2011 but very lightly raced since (7 appearances in three years), leading for a long way in 2012 Grand National. Pulled up at Aintree this year but wind disorder spotted and sorted since. Could beat this Becher field if back to his best.
ABCE Benbens
Skilfully placed for this by trainer who has won it five times. Only once out of the first four in nine races over the last three years, showing his class when winning the Greatwood Hurdle.
Progressive chaser, beaten little more than three lengths at Cheltenham in November, giving 9lb to the winner, Charingworth, who comes out the equal of Balbriggan on their second and third the previous month at Cheltenham.
AD Oscar Time
Unseated rider at a big price in that Charingworth race at Cheltenham in November but was moving into contention at the time, although it was his first run back in nearly six months.
Back-to-back wins, hunter-chasing in the Spring, after taking more than a year off following his fourth in the 2013 Grand National
AB Alfie Spinner
One-time NH Chase (4m) fifth at Cheltenham, and third United House Gold Cup at Ascot. Beaten less than three lengths in London National at Sandown a year back, and second last month in Badger Ales at Wincanton. So-frustrating nearly-horse who hasn’t won for three years.
ACD Saint Are
Another nearly horse who hasn’t won for 32 months. Ninth in the 2013 Grand National. Has dropped 18lb in the ratings, and back to form, third to Sam Winner in the Murphy at Cheltenham last month.
AC Balbriggan
I warned in advance that this one was the ‘business’ for the Troytown Chase but did not quite expect the stunning gamble (WON 4-1 from 13.5 on BETDAQ).
It was a memorable day as he made allo at Navan, proving that an easy win at Perth and a fine run at Cheltenham on the autumn were part of a progression, now four wins from five starts, and still only seven.
AC Highland Lodge
Has dropped 11lb since fourth in the 2013 Hennessy, giving a great ride to Leighton Aspell who would win this year’s race on Many Clouds. Modest form since, including tried in a visor first run back, but jumps for fun and target is the Grand National.
BCD Across The Bay
The unlucky horse of last year’s Grand National, clear when almost carried out by a loose horse and got going again too late, so finishing 14th for the second year running. A long way behind in his first run back.
BCD The Package
Keeps having a go at the Grand National: 18/UR/12 is his form in three attempts since 2009. Well forward last year but got tired. Third at the Cheltenham Festival in March and has had a run back. A glass horse but jumps the big fences well.
BD Mr Moonshine
The right age and with the right trainer of staying chasers. Completed in the National and third in the Becher last year, but high in the weights now, 7lb worse off with the winner.
BC Al Co
Success in the Scottish G and National in April cost him a 7lb rise. He beat the previous year’s winner with last week’s Hennessy third finishing fourth that day. Now has to give weight all round.
BCD Burton Port
Best days were as a novice with Nicky Henderson, including winning the Mildmay and the Reynoldstown, subsequently second in the Hennessy (2010), fourth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Well backed for a revival in the Grand National for Jonjo O’Neill this year but unseated rider and was dropped a few pounds. Handicapper nearly went for a Burton after when the horse was only just run out of it in the Sandown Gold Cup.
BCD Chance Du Roy
Runner-up in the Topham in 2012 and won the Beecher last year without a prep race. Back for more on Saturday with this stable in stunning form during the autumn, only recently conceding the lead in the trainers’ table to the usual supects.
Ran a fine race in the Grand National, conceding defeat only from the second last. Just 6lb higher in this than last year but 7lb higher than he was in the Topham
B Knock A Hand
Has mixed hurdles and fences, remaining a novice in both disciplines, pulled up in the Welsh national., Must have soft ground.
B Renard
Got round over these fences in the 2013 Topham and best run since when third in the Grimthorpe. Once thought a two-miler, he was ridden for stamina, all the way leader until just caught at Haydock recently (3m 1f).
CDE Mon Parrain
Heralded as a National winner after excellent second in the 2011 Topham as a five-year-old. Has gradually dropped in the weights since and pulled up first run back in October. Hard to train but could be back to his best over these fences.
C Mendip Express
Only three chases in very light career. But defeat of Alfie Spinner – weighted to reverse the form now – shot him up the handicap at the turn of the year and failed to complete Scottish Grand National. Returned over hurdles, a 14-length winner, with the form boosted this week by the runner-up.
C Goonyella
Hunter-chaser, fifth when made favourite for last yerar’s Troytown on strength of Punchestown 3m 6f success. Similar support for Welsh National then Irish National. Ran well in both but no threat to the leading group. Still only seven and his experience will pay off.
D Our Father
Another gambled on young stayer, but no show as favourite for last year’s Hennessy, and out the back in Haydock Grand National trial and Kim Muir at Cheltenham (first-time blinkers). Unseated in the Grand National. Needs to drop a frew pounds.
E Just A Par
Grade-1 placed as a hurdler, and started out over a fences a Grade-2 winner, but down the field since in Feltham, RSA and Mildmay. Wore cheekpieces for handicap debut over further recently at Wincanton. ‘The Becher is made for him,’ says trainer Paul Nicholls.
– Green Flag
Another youngster with a highish rating after novice hat-trick in the North. Fourth at Cheltenham Festival and sixthcin Scottish Grand National. Needs a lot more.
STEP UP IN TRIP WILL SUIT POLAMCO
WINCANTON: 2.15 Silver Buck Handicap My advance tips this week have been for Balbriggan and Benbens in the Becher Chase on Saturday and for Buck’s Bond in this race, won by his stable three times in the decade.
In fact, Buck’s Bond was lucky to win this same race last year, when left clear, off a mark 2lb lower than today, but the likely favourite, Ziga Boy, is a soft-ground horse and it’s good ground (good to soft in places) at Winkers now, cloudy but a drying day.
Water Wagtail and Goring One like this track, and Goring One has also won this race when fresh on a similar sound surface.
I’ll oppose the favourite on this ground with Buck’s Bond, and also have a bit win and place on Goring One at 16.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
I said the other day that, when a trainer describes one as a ‘fun horse’, punters beware. And that’s what Paul Nicholls thinks of Lumpys Gold.
As he’s close up in the market, it helps me decide that Harry fry’s Poiamco is the one to be on, an Old Vic who should enjoy the step up in trip with hard-pulling ‘Lumpy’ giving him a lead.
MARKET RASEN : Anthony Honeyball has sent only one chaser to Market Rasen before – a winner – and his very selective trips to the track are, all round, 75% (3-4).
Snag with his Royal Native (1.20) is that he gets outpaced in his races and can hit a flat spot. That’s not Market Rasen style. He also needs a sounder surface on all known form, and this is his first chase.
Finding Your Feet and Knockalongi also seem to need top of the ground, McCoy’s mount struggling in the mud at Uttoxeter on his debut over fences.
Desert Joe also had his first chase recently and unseated for Alan King, who has a poor record with raiders on this Lincolnshire track.
Local hope The Society Man is a bridesmaid, with four seconds on the course since winning a seller two years ago.
Royal Palladium’s style of running is ideal for this switchback track. He’s been in fine form and goes up in the handicap tomorrow, rated 2lb more than his 7lb penalty as he bids for the hat-trick here.
LEICESTER: Ballydague Lady (3.10) is rehandicapped 15lb higher tomorrow (8lb more than today’s penalty), so even more reason to attempt her hat–trick.
But the early-mouse BETDAQ market has Easy Beesy leapfrogging the paper favourite, as an unlucky loser first time over fences (unseated when going well) and with cheekpieces fitted to help him concentrate today.
The Scudamores get together with Nouveau Moulin (2.35), Michael hoping that the extra trip will help the mare’s jumping – would have won for blunder at the last at Hexham – with Tom taking over in the saddle. Tasty at 6.0 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Strength of the bet is reflected in the stake)
BET 8pts win (nap) POLAMCO (1.45 Wincanton)
BET 5pts win BUCK’S BOND, and 1pt win and place GORING ONE (2.15 Wincanton)
BET 4pts win NOUVEAU MOULIN (2.35 Leicester)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 2pt win doubles and a 1pt win treble ROYAL PALLADIUM (1.20 Market Rasen), PALAMCO (1.45 Market Rasen) and EASY BEESY (3.10 Leicester)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£30 FREE BET
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
