Dallas Cowboys (8-4, 6-6 ATS) @ Chicago Bears (5-7, 5-7 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Dallas -3.5 (51)
Significant Injuries
Dallas: DE Demarcus Lawrence (questionable– chest), S Jeff Heath (out– thumb), CB Andrew Patmon (out– knee), LB Dekoda Watson (out– hamstring)
Chicago: S Chris Conte (questionable– eye), WR Alshon Jeffery (questionable– hamstring), DT Jay Ratliff (questionable– knee), K Robbie Gould (doubtful– quadricep), DE Cornelius Washington (doubtful– chest), LB Darryl Sharpton (out– hamstring), WR Chris Williams (out– hamstring)
Recent Trends
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
Dallas is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. NFC opponents
Dallas is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a losing record
Chicago is 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 home games
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 4-0 in Dallas’ last 4 road games
The UNDER is 5-1 in Dallas’ last 6 games following a double-digit home loss
The UNDER is 4-1 in Chicago’s last 5 home games
The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Dallas
1. The Cowboys are 8-4 and right in the thick of the NFC playoff race, while the Bears are a disintegrating team that is now 5-7 after a blowout loss in Detroit last week. Chicago hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record since Week 2 and 5 of their 7 losses this season have come by 13 points or more.
2. Dallas has an excellent offense that ranks 8th in total yards per game, 3rd in rush yards per game, and 9th in points scored (25.2 ppg). The Chicago defense, meanwhile, has surrendered more points this season (28.1 ppg) than all but two teams leaguewide. What happens when a great offense faces a terrible defense? Well, we saw it a few weeks ago, when the Bears surrendered 106 combined points in back-to-back losses to New England and Green Bay.
3. Chicago is one of the NFL’s worst home teams, having covered just 3 times in their last 15 opportunities. Dallas, on the other hand, has played very well on the road this season, covering 4 times and failing to do so just once. Remember also that the Bears are quarterbacked by Jay Cutler, who leads the NFL in turnovers and has been generally unreliable throughout his career.
Three reasons to back Chicago
1. The Bears have won each of their past two home games by 8 points or more and this week they face a Dallas team whose only wins since Week 7 have come against the Jaguars and Giants, two teams with a combined record of 5-19. The Cowboys haven’t been the same since Tony Romo broke his back a month ago (Romo has been playing with two fractured vertebrae for the past few games).
2. The Chicago defense has struggled on the road but they’ve been much better at home, where they’ve surrendered just 17.2 points per game over their last three contests. They’ve defended the run much better than the pass this season and the Cowboys have a run-first offense (3rd rush ypg, 17th pass ypg), so this should be a good matchup for the Chicago D.
3. The Chicago offense is loaded with elite skill-position talent, guys like Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Matt Forte, and Martellus Bennett. They simply have too much firepower for the vulnerable Dallas defense, a unit that ranks 20th or worse in total yards allowed, rush yards allowed, and pass yards allowed.
Prediction
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