GOOD MORNING WITH BETDAQ ORANGE: Rise and shine with the BETDAQ orange for breakfast! says Daqman: ‘I opened my office at 7 o’clock and found Daq markets at York with offers adding up to 102, 103 and 105%. Take a look at the bookies’ Total SPs for the first day yesterday: 128, 127, 125% among the overrounds.’
DAQMAN BY NUMBERS
* THIRTY 30-9 UP ON PRICEWISE
* TWENTY 20 NAPS UP OUT OF 29
* NINE 9 BANKERS IN A ROW
* SEVEN 7 CONSECUTIVE LAYS
DANTE DAY BANKER AT YORK: Daqman v Pricewise today is restricted to the 1.45 race at York. Pricewise ducks the rest of the card. But Daqman goes all in on the Dante Stakes, puts his money where his mouth is for the Derby and takes 24.0 and 14.5 offers in the opener.
BANKER BET THAT THE STORY IS TRUE
Never be afraid of one horse, they say. In a, currently, two-horse market for the Derby, you can oppose the favourite and see your chances fire up to an inferno in today’s Dante Stakes at York.
It’s 2.21 Australia and 6.4 True Story on BETDAQ as I write, with 14.0 bar two, reflected by similar odds with the bookies, evens the favourite, then 11-2 True Story.
Market-wise this morning, there’s only one alarm bell ringing among the outsiders: Ladbrokes give a chance, with much lower offers, to Ballydoyle’s Geoffrey Chaucer. That could tell a tale.
True Story (2.45 York) will be short for York today – a banker – after his Fielden Stakes stroll at Newmarket, so spend the winnings now by taking the 6.4 for Epsom on June 7.
It’s a case of counting your equine pickings before they hatch the plot! If I’m wrong, the layers deposit scrambled egg on my face. And I’m forced into a banker bet on Australia at Epsom to recoup.
1.45 York No one expected Maarek to put up his Abbaye performance in the Duke Of York yesterday (except Evanna McCutcheon, of course) and Astaire has time on his side to prove best sprinter of that field this season.
High numbers prevailed in the sprint handicap (order in by stall 20, 5, 19, 14, 12); in fact, most of the day they wanted the middle ground, not the (low) far side: stalls 10, 14 and 17 and 20 were among the other winners.
The jockeys said the going wasn’t as bad as they thought it might be, so a dry night and dry morning should return the surface to something like good ground today, with some ease in places.
Will that return the low-drawn runners to the rail? Of such imponderables are losing bets made, particularly with 20 starters to get your head round. Let’s look high and low!
One of the best sprint trainers in the game is Robert Cowell, who is currently showing form figures of 22122101. His Normal Equilibrium (stall 8) is already in winning form, though his CV of success (Lingfield, Chester) is not that of a horse who will relish the wide open spaces of the Knavesmire straight.
Lady Gibraltar needs firm ground (as does Desert Law); Magical Macey (5th last year) has never won off his high mark; Secret Witness, 6th last year, has never won (full stop) in two years; Inxile, too; Monsieur Joe likewise; and success for Long Awaited eponymously the same.
Long Awaited is owned by the former boss of the Tote who introduced the weekly jackpot that’s currently rolling over into millions. Long awaited or what!
Winner in both 2011 and 2013 for Mick Easterby was Ancient Cross (5lb higher), and Ballesteros got within two lengths of Maarek last September but needs the rain back again.
So does Kyleakin Lass among the high numbers, where you’ll find the 2012 winner and last year’s third, Judge ‘n Jury (in the 18 stall), 4lb lower with Frankie Dettori booked. Sure to go close but 10-years-old now.
Bogart is from the Astaire stable but he is a slow starter, season-wise, and has never won a race before August. Best Trip has never won above class 4; Brian Ellison’s other runner, Doc Hay, is an Ascot Listed winner but looked out of sorts last time out
VERDICT: Ancient Cross and Judge ‘n Jury are sure to give a bold show despite their veteran 10 years of age, and you could fancy half a dozen others. I’m not taking this race too seriously (he says, after combing the form book ever since News At Ten!)
In the six years of the race’s existence, the winner by draw has been 5, 5, 9, 4, 3, 1 and none has carried more than 9st 3lb to victory.
Secret Witness (24.0 on BETDAQ this morning) comes out best of a whole host of these on his Portland third in September, and Kevin ‘Astaire’ Ryan says (now he tells us!) that Bogart (14.5) is his best of a strong hand for the entire Dante meeting.
2.15 York (Middleton Stakes) Some winners of this were already Group-1 stars (Sariska, Midday) and you always need a top-quality filly.
That would mean you are choosing from the only Group winners, Ambivalent, Mango Diva, The Lark and Thistle Bird. Secret Gesture has plied her trade in Group 1 but is a ‘nearly horse’, second in the Epsom Oaks, third in the Yorkshire Oaks on today’s track.
Two pluses today: she goes well fresh and the stable is in form (won the Lingfield Oaks Trial, as usual). Will that give her the edge at last?
Well, I can’t have a six-year-old (Thistle Bird) and Ambivalent, aged five, though with a run under her belt, has always hated cut in the ground. Her effort today will be revealing, going-wise, for the rest of the card.
Fillies’ St Leger – the Park Hill – winner, The Lark, third behind Secret Gesture in the Oaks, surely needs further than today’s 10 furlongs.
VERDICT: I’m left with a punt that Sir Michael Stoute can improve Mango Diva, as so often proves the case with older animals he’s kept in training. The 7.0 win on BETDAQ this morning could be covered for a place at 2.37 but I prefer to spend that on another win bet, another time, another place.
The 7.0 is a good price, as are they all in this, one of three BETDAQ races which were 105% or lower (103, in fact) when I checked the markets around 7 a.m. You’ve just gotta have that orange for breakfast!
2.45 York (Dante Stakes): Currently the best guide to the Derby, last-chance saloon for the colts on parade for Epsom.
Never be afraid of one horse, said Daqman (yours truly) in my intro to this column today. Does that mean I’m bunkered for a banker in this, another 103% race?
No, I’d fancy Bunker more for this tough 10-furlongs-plus trial out of any other top stable. I know it’s a cliché but Team Hannon has not the same magic touch beyond a mile (ever since Mon Fils).
For once I’m with the clichés, as I support Kieran Fallon, the Rennaissance man, and the hyped horse, True Story, who cut down Just The Judge’s half-brother, Obliterator, eased down by seven lengths at Newmarket.
All but one of the maidens True Story beat last year has won since and Barley Mow, near on 14 lengths behind him at Newmarket, has since stepped up to win a Listed there.
VERDICT: Unless the weather forecast is wrong and there is rain, True Story should land my Dante banker. I have an outsider (Kingfisher) for the Derby and, taking 6.4 about this one on BETDAQ, should, if the colt wins, have two effects on my personal Epsom ‘book’.
His odds will reduce, leaving me the option of trading out on him. The favourite’s price will increase marginally, leaving me with better saver insurance on him for all my Epsom stakes. Well, we have to try to make sense of this crazy game somehow.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Win bets are staked for 20 points profit at morning BETDAQ offers, except bankers and ante-post)
BET 1.5pts win and place BOGART and 0.85 win and place SECRET WITNESS (1.45 York)
BET 3.3pts win MANGO DIVA (2.15 York)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) TRUE STORY (2.45 York)
BET 4.5pts win BUTTON DOWN (3.05 Salisbury)
BET 3.3pts win on each FURY and NAVAJO CHIEF (3.15 York)
BET 4pts win GREEN MONKEY (8.35 Newmarket)
ANTE-POST: BET 5.5pts win TRUE STORY (to win 30 points) in the Derby (Epsom, June 7); already bet (to win 50pts): 0.85pts win KINGFISHER.
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