DAQMAN MOVES ALL IN ON THE ORMONDE STAKES: Daqman got the draw stats right but his bets stalled as things didn’t quite work out for him. That was the bitter pill from Chester’s first day yesterday. But can the same medicine work a recovery today on Ormonde Stakes day? He has a supernap in that race.
A WINCANTON WORD FROM HIS MAN FOR TONIGHT: Pricewise was also punished yesterday so Daqman’s 16-5 lead remains, 66 points clear to a single-unit level stake in his 10th season without defeat by his Racing Post value-race rival. Note that Daqman steps up his profit target tonight for a whisper from his man in the long grass for Wincanton.
BLESSED BE THE LOW DRAW STILL
The preacher is too often found wanting. I warned you about the draw at Chester; preached in favour of the low stalls; but managed only one winner at 11-10. Hope you did better.
I also tipped one of four Marwan Koukash runners. He had two winners at 13-2 and 7-1; mine was sixth of 10. Can I catch the Koukash gravy train today?
More important, how will the draw do today? First, here are yesterday’s results by stall compared with the same returns last year that I gave you in the column:
Yesterday’s draw: 4, 1, 3, 2, 3, 5, 7
2017 same races: 3, 3, 1, 3, 3, 1, 8
The Classic trials? Well, Magic Wand looked good, as they do when never challenged; Young Rascal can only improve. He was very green before disposing of the O’Brien colts. His form is tested today by My Lord And Master (2.25).
1.50 Chester Again, staggering draw returns in the last nine seasons: 4, 3, 7, 2, 3, 4, 4, 3, 1. Only a couple of winners carried more than 8st 10lb.
What more can you hope for than a Marwan Koukash runner off 8st 5lb, drawn 4 and a Chester CD winner to boot. That’s Powerallied, a 6.8 offer on BETDAQ this morning.
He’s sometimes a tricky starter so trainer Richard Fahey warns: If he can keep up early, he’ll be coming home better than any.
The one he has to catch is the very fast A Momentofmadness (5.2 favourite) from the one stall. The reason I can’t punt heavily on him is that he’s slowly gone up 10lb in 10 races for only one win. That says: needs everything to drop right. But the track should be ideal for exactly that to happen.
El Astronaute won it from the one stall last year but is 8lb higher and parked out near the castle-wall car lot in 9..
MOORE MAGIC ON ROSTROPOVICH
2.25 Chester (Dee Stakes) Aidan O’Brien, four winners in six years, has two of the six runners today, both drawn in the low four.
You can back both Rostropovich and Kenya at a shade of odds on, but has William Haggas outflanked the master of Ballydoyle?
He won yesterday’s Vase with Young Rascal, beating O’Brien’s Hunting Horn into third.
Now he saddles My Lord And Master, who beat Young Rascal six lengths in the autumn, and went down narrowly to Crossed Baton in Epsom’s Blue Riband Trial last month.
Just over a length behind My Lord And Master at Epsom was Dee Ex Bee, who was beaten half a length by Young Rascal in the Vase yesterday.
That’s the face value of the form, but what makes this worse as a betting medium today is that both O’Brien runners are up in trip.
Rastrelli was well behind Dee Ex Bee in the autumn but has won already this term since being gelded.
My verdict is that, if Ryan Moore goes to the front on Rostropovich (he’s by Frankel), My Lord And Master may have difficulty catching him: I took 4.5 BETDAQ offers.
3.00 Chester The winner was a real quality horse in 2013, when Here Comes When went on to win a Group 2 in the same season and ultimately the Sussex Stakes.
I like to watch. But Being There has a hard act to win this from stall 9, with Port Swtan (from 4) one of those van runners suited by the track.
Another Batt is a classy horse, third to 1,000 Guineas seventh, Anna Nerium, in the Free Handicap, and the well-drawn Simpson is down in grade from his fifth in the Blue Riband Derby trial at Epsom
We can only guess whether Vale Of Kent can transfer AW form to turf, and blinkers have to work again if Caffe Macchiato is to follow up his Navan victory.
It’s one of those where you have to choose between a quality horse and a light weight. Thanks to BETDAQ value, we can back well-drawn versions of both in Another Batt (7.8 offers) and Porth Swtan (9.2).
IDAHO MUST TAKE THE ORMONDE
3.35 Chester (Ormonde Stakes) Placed in two Derbys and a King George, yet Idaho is rated only 7lb higher than these Group-3 types, though racing off a similar mark for almost two years now. A typical nearly horse.
To be fair, his form figures in races below Group-1 level are 12311 and he beat his nearest rival in the ratings, Muntahaa, 11 lengths in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot last June and, though Muntahaa, is working well after being gelded, he has a lot of ground to make up for a horse needing a Cup distance.
The main danger on form, therefore, is Duretto, the ‘moral’ in this race last year, hampered but less than a length down at the finish, third, giving weight to the first two.
But his stable is badly out of form, with 42 straight losers in the last 14 days, so Idaho must take his chance to grab this and should be odds on. He is. But was only marginally so at 1.9 on BETDAQ this morning. Supernap.
5.05 Chester Whoa! Seven of the last 10 successful in this have been drawn between 8 and 11, though the favourites in the last four seasons came out of stalls 1 (twice), 2 and 4. So punters were faithful to the trends but got stuffed!
Strangely, same with the last race yesterday – this year and last – which did not conform to the low-stalls domination. Gates 7 and 8 were the winners.
Should this put me off Never Surrender (gate 4), the medium of a gamble this morning. Talk about déjà vu!
But the last time before his gelding op that he was in class 3 was when Never Surrender won his maiden here over CD at Chester.
Since being gelded, he has run fourth at the Greenham meeting, local to his yard, with three previous winners in front of him but has been unfancied at, 25-1 (twice), 20-1, 14-1, 12-1.
This morning he was 11-2 into 11-4 with bookmaers, and 4.1 in the BETDAQ orange. Have I got a hidden horse here or am I on the slippery slope of the Chester last-race-draw anomaly?
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Chester (win 20)
BET 4.5pts win A MOMENTOFMADNESS
BET 3.5pts win POWERALLIED
2.25 Chester (win 20)
BET 5.75pts win ROSTROPOVICH
3.00 Chester (win 20)
BET 3pts win ANOTHER BATT
BET 2.5pts win PORTH SWTAN
3.35 Chester (settle at SP but 1.9 BETDAQ this morning)
SUPERNAP: 20pts win IDAHO
5.05 Chester (win 20)
BET 6pts win NEVER SURRENDER
7.50 Wincanton (win 30)
BET 9pts win DJIN CONTI
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