THREE WINNING DAYS IN A ROW: The wonder of Daqman! He made it three winning days in a row with The Wandaofu (WON 11-4) and Grendisar (WON 5-2) in BETDAQ-sponsored races at Kempton Park last night.
THAT’S 52 POINTS PROFIT: His unbeaten week has pocketed 52 points, following Monday-Tuesday winners Alcaeus (WON 3-1), Master Carpenter (WON 11-4) and Plutocracy (WON 10-11).
2.35 Goodwood Mark Johnston likes to win at Goodwood and King Of The Danes – 4.0 on BETDAQ this morning in a 105% list of offers – is a blot on the handicap, representing Classic-trial form, as runner-up to Musidora second, Romantic Settings, before his commanding victory at Ascot.
3.45 Goodwood (Height Of Fashion Stakes) Love Divine (2000) and Snow Fairy (2010) took this on the way to winning the Oaks. Of five others to win this and go on to Epsom in the decade, two finished second.
That’s not bad for a late trial but this year’s winning filly would be turning out again eight days from now if she is to run in the Oaks.
Snow Fairy had a break of 16 days and Rising Cross, when runner-up to Alexandrova in 2006, had nearer a month (27 days).
The difficulties of fixture revision are well known but, after a bad winter, punters – and the fillies, of course – could have done with intervention by the BHA to give this trial some air.
We have precious few lines to form as it is and have had to endure bleak days of low-level racing. The colts have the same problem tomorrow when they line up in the old Predominate Stakes.
Now called the Cocked Hat Stakes, the once recognized Epsom guide was brought back to life by Derby third and subsequent Royal Ascot winner Rewilding (2010) but is dead on the ground this year.
Having said all that, thanks to AW tracks, all 11 fillies in the Height Of Fashion today have been on a racecourse twice this year (only four of them have won).
Perhaps the most significant stat from past results is that 8 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 5 or lower, albeit in small fields. But the need for a low draw is nailed by there having been three winners in the last four years from stall 1, and starting position could be absolutely vital for today’s largest field this century.
Adjacent to the favourite, Elik (stall 1) in the betting are two fillies drawn 8 and 11 which adds value to Elik at 4.1 this morning, as does the fair-play 108% total probability in the list of offers in the BETDAQ orange.
Elik could be said to have Oaks form; alone among today’s runners, she certainly appears to be Group level, after running up to Woodland Aria, subsequently third to Liber Nauticus in the Musidora at York.
Liber Nauticus is only 3-1 for Epsom (though 5.0 on BETDAQ this morning) and is in the same hands as Elik, those of Sir Michael Stoute.
Meanwhile, Elik herself went on to finish fourth in the Cheshire Oaks to the unbeaten Banoffee after a bumping incident knocked her out of her stride.
Irish raider Harmonic Note has run in the pattern twice this season but without getting anywhere near the winners and was exposed as a two-year-old.
4.05 Haydock A handicap to get your teeth into. Winners have been aged four and five (8 out of 9) with no winner carrying more than 9st 3lb. Nine out of 12 placed horses in the last four years have been drawn six or higher.
Basseterre and Roserrow immediately stand out. They’re barking Basseterre (holds Volcanic Wind on Kempton form) but Roserrow, yet to do as well on turf as on AW, has drifted like a lonely dog on a raft this morning over the betting weir to 17.5.
Sam Sharp usually goes well fresh and Postscript is big at 12.0 as a dual winner at Haydock but is he that bit too high in the weights, with work to do from the 2 stall?
Maybe not in a handicap of only 9lb from top to bottom: he’s fit from two runs back and his last outing at Chester (hampered) can be discounted, as he’s a hold-up horse unsuited by such a tight track and was up in grade that day.
4.20 Goodwood No outright favourite has won this in the decade; younger horses – aged four and five – are six from seven.
Back for more are Astromagick, who won a division of this last year, and Cosimo De Medici – now six though – who took the prize in 2011.
Cool Sky, Murcar and Sunny Future have moderate form on a right-handed track, whereas it suits Danville (four wins and two seconds), though he, too, is six years old now.
Rain is forecast and it was soft for both Tartan Jura and the grey Silver Samba when they won over CD. In both cases it was at meetings later in the year.
But Silver Samba is a filly in form, with two good place runs this year, finishing in front of Sunny Future, Montaff and Bow To No One (well in at the weights now with stable in form, but one paced).
6.30 Sandown This is a two-horse race on breeding for this trip, with Lion Beacon’s form boosted by Grendisar in a BETDAQ race last night.
Sir Mark Prescott has already set a couple of his off on a sequence trail, as he so often does, suggesting that such horses are running below their level or have massive improvement in them.
Khotan could easily be one of these, despite defeat on his reappearance – it was an amateurs’ race – but was easy to back this morning (saver).
VALUE BET: 10pts win KING OF THE DANES (2.35 Goodwood)
VALUE BET 10pts win (nap) ELIK (3.45 Goodwood)
BET 6.2pts win BASSETERRE and 1.8pts win POSTSCRIPT (4.05 Haydock)
VALUE BETS 8.5pts win SILVER SAMBA and 1.5pts win DANVILLE (4.20 Goodwood)
BET 8pts win LION BEACON and 1.7pts win (stakes saver) KHOTAN (6.30 Sandown)
DAQMAN’S TARGETS: Above-average day at Goodwood. Bets raised to win 30 points in races all marked for value because the BETDAQ offers tallied to below 110% probability. The rest of today’s bets target 20.
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