LINCOLN ABC WITH THE ‘X’ FACTOR: Daqman takes you through Saturday’s Lincoln field – overlapping with the split for Friday’s Spring Mile – as he marks each horse ABCDE against the stats, plus the ‘X’ Factor, which is their past ability to win in the Spring.
A: Rated 91 to 98: (9/11)
B: Winner on soft ground
C: Placed first outing in a previous season (9/10)
D: Placed in field of 14 or more (10/10)
E: Aged four or five: (25/33)
X: A Spring horse. Figures in brackets after the horse denote form in the Spring.
ABCDEX Captain Bertie (2341) Has been in the frame in all four starts in April and May, including fourth, repeatedly hampered, in the consolation Spring Mile a year ago, beaten about two lengths.
Turned out three weeks later to win the Newbury Spring Cup off a mark 9lb lower than he has on Saturday (94) but excellent second in the Bunbury Cup last July off 93.
ABCDEX Trail Blaze (11) Big horse, lazy at home but back-to-back April-May wins last term when fresh on genuinely good or good-to-soft surface. Connections intend to try him over 1m 2f so no worries with a fast pace on Saturday.
ABCDX Memory Cloth (1003123) From a dual-purpose yard which loves an early strike on the Flat, he beat last year’s Lincoln winner, Brae Hill, at Newcastle in June (his Lincoln mark is 1lb below that winning rating).
All success has come on a soft surface and he should be fit from a recent run on the AW at Wolverhampton. Ideally prefers tracks with a bend.
ABCDX Global Village (0011001310) From the same stable as Memory Cloth, but with Kieren Fallon booked. Three times a winner in April after an AW run, and caught the eye on his reappearance sixth in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton recently.
ABCDX Justonefortheroad (3341011) Fourth in 2011 Spring Mile and went on to take the Thirsk Hunt Cup. Won first two runs back on turf at a lower level in preferred soft ground last season.
ABCD Chosen Character (320300) One for your notebook for the summer months. He has won twice in May but usually needs a run or two to set him up for the kill.
And, as a model of consistency (10 in a row in the frame, including five wins from July on), he is currently high in the handicap, so I imagine he will need to shed a few pounds.
ABCD Swiftly Done (0202) Soft ground suits but winning form is from June onwards and has never scored after a break. Needs to drop a few pounds.
ABCEX Chapter Seven (10) Winner first time out last season and from a stable in form. Doncaster success last June came on soft ground, same conditions as subsequent win at York over a furlong further, but 6lb higher now and must improve again for Jamie Spencer.
ABCE Anderiego (414) April winner but has needed a run – fourth both seasonal starts – and best form in July on a sound surface. Claimed off on Saturday.
ABCE Anton Chigurh (0) Jockey bookings suggest he’s preferred over Chosen Character. Winner at Doncaster and loves to dig his toe in, but all success from July onwards.
ABCE Shamaal Nibras (31) April winner last season but without a prior AW run this time, and beaten at Doncaster in three consecutive starts.
ABCE Tandem ( – ) Dermot Weld doesn’t make too many mistakes when sending them over here, and Tandem was second first time on a racecourse last July, winning twice since on the soft.
ABDE Muffin McLeay (0403) Has needed several runs before getting off the mark in the last two seasons.
ABE Capaill Liath (0031) Sixth in the Newbury Spring Cup last April after a Kempton AW start. Seen in a sprint at Wolverhampton recently but 5lb higher than for last success (7f soft).
ACDEX Eshtibaak (010) Winner on his reappearance last year and well fancied (blocked in) over 1m 2f at Ascot in July. This five-year-old entire is very lightly raced and, therefore, unexposed.
ACDEX Nine Realms (22) From a stable which won the Lincoln in 1992, 2007 and 2010. Raced only three times so we don’t really know his level of ability or going preference, though he has won on firm ground and his sire’s progeny are mainly top-of-the-ground horses.
His close relative, Aqlaam, was steered clear of soft ground but probably avoided extremes of going because of a knee injury. Aqlaam was a Group-1 winner with cut in the ground at Longchamp.
ACDX Monsieur Chevalier (11144) Those three X-factor wins were all as a precocious two-year-old. Missed out 2010 and his sole success since was in September, 2011. Beaten three times in a row by Solar Deity.
ACDX Brae Hill (20420414) Winner and second in previous Lincolns, and back to the same mark as for his success. All his wins have come on firm or genuinely good ground, though he did run second to Memory Cloth on heavy.
ACDX Billyford (1012343) Most of his form is on the AW at Dundalk. Has twice won his first race of the year but no success on turf since 2007.
ACE Lahaag (2) Stable won this four years ago with a similar sort, lightly raced. Borderline for the X-factor after second in May last year on first start, and won with cut in the ground after 120-day lay-off.
ACE Solar Deity (4401) Another who has won first time or after a break but never on turf. Fifth at Doncaster last May, and well beaten on the soft at Yarmouth.
ADE Strictly Silver (1) Has winter-wonder boy Robert Tart in the saddle and another who has shown his best form on AW. But won a nursery at Doncaster and scored on an easy surface at Ayr.
AE Gladys’ Gal (4) With Winter Derby winning stable. Winner at Doncaster over 7f and reckoned Listed level by connections.
AE Hit The Jackpot (405) Two-year-old winner over a mile, not seen since May last year after failing in Group races. Sire Pivotal gets soft-ground winners.
BCDX Dance And Dance (1203) Winner first time out in 2010 and Spring Mile runner-up on reappearance the following year, going on to take top mile race at the Epsom Derby meeting.
Conditions-race winner at Doncaster over a mile last July and modest form in the pattern after. Starts his season 7lb higher than for that handicap win at Epsom.
BCEX Majestic Myles (1413) Winner first run back in two of the last three seasons, he’s a Listed scorer on soft ground. But success as a mature horse has all been over 7f.
CDEX Belgian Bill (102) Doncaster CD winner first outing of 2011 and touted for Royal Hunt Cup last year after Meydan season.
Backend winner twice at Kempton, returned to Meydan in January but has never really taken to the surface there. All success is on English AW or turf firm but only five lengths off the winner in Buckingham Palace Stakes on the soft at Royal Ascot last June.
CDE Miblish (202) Borderline X-factor case. A winner first time out as a two-year-old and close second in a Listed first run back this year but has failed to score since that successful start to an 11-race career.
CDX Prince Of Johanne (00102112) Winner at the start and end of the 2011 season, including taking the Cambridgeshire. But all success on a sound surface
SNOW START: Rain has changed the Chepstow going today to heavy, soft in places, while snow threatens the Friday-Saturday Doncaster start to the Flat.
Dorset trainer Mark Gillard is 3-4 in handicap hurdles at Chepstow: he has the first two favourites, both mares, on the course this afternoon, with the ground now right for a repeat by Lady Bridget (2.40), a CD winner on heavy in January under Jake Hodson and third in this race last year.
Lady Bridget is a fair Chepstow horse (form there 13001) and looks set to reverse Taunton form with Come On Annie on today’s terms.
Venetia Williams has good chances at her local meeting, but Opera Og (all wins going right-handed) tries to step up from novice class, giving weight to Time To Think (3.45) and back-to-form Star Galaxy, who’s won this race before. Hard to call.
Venetia’s mare, Rydalis (4.20) takes on Seigneur Des Bois in a similar situation, returning from novice company, but giving weight all round.
The snag with ‘Seigneur’ is that his last-day win was his first run for a year and taking a short price about him flies in the face of the bounce factor. The pair may let in Salut Honore off a light weight, if he’s in the mood.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.6pts win (nap) LADY BRIDGET (2.40 Chepstow)
BET 3pts win SALUT HONORE (4.20 Chepstow)
BETDAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win treble Lady Bridget (2.40 Chepstow), Salut Honore (4.20 Chepstow) and Storm (6.30 Kempton)
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