HOW TO ‘’OUT DO’ THE LAYERS: ANOTHER WINNING DAQMAN NAP: Daqman landed his third nap from five and number 12 from 19 (for a strike rate of 63%) when Out Do (WON 5-2) scored at Yarmouth for Luca Cumani yesterday. The 20th nap in the sequence is today, after 1111111041104211221.
HALLELUJAH! BIG ROYAL ASCOT VALUE ON BETDAQ: Today he concludes his ante-post survey of the big races at Royal Ascot next week, with early bets on the Gold Cup and the Wokingham at 22.0 and 21.0 BETDAQ value, with both quoted 14-1 with some bookmakers..
It was a pleasure to watch the Cumani winner yesterday. Out Do will win a better race later in the year. Now Kieren Fallon is back for the same trainer on Pleasure Bent at Newbury today.
Pleasure Bent (4.00) makes his handicap debut, seemingly sure to improve from his maiden win and with Cumani on a 76% win-and-place strike rate (13 from 17).
Nothing else seems disguised in the race (famous last words!) and the 72 mark awarded him means that Pleasure Bent is not even top weight in a class 5.
Just Darcy (5.05) is, similarly, on his handicap debut and, again, there doesn’t seem much strength in the opposition, but the worry is why he is 10.5 this morning, as opposed to his paper price of 4-1 favourite.
The (semi) steamer is Nullarbor Sky (forecast 12-1, but 6.2 on BETDAQ, as I write). Interesting Buick booking.
Gone for an even longer walk is another Stoute, Bohemian Dance (1.50). forecast 15-2 but 27.0 on BETDAQ as I write.
The Ribblesdale entry Toast of The Town is the one doing the talking, with her Ascot maiden form boosted and another Buick ride in top gear today. Nap.
In the BETDAQ apprentice series tonight, last year’s winner, Silver Tigress (6.20 Haydock), was trading a tasty 7.4 this morning to go in again, this time for promising boy, Connor Beasley.
I was on the Prescott sequence horse, Alcaeus (4.20 Yarmouth), then went off it; looks one for the Daq Multiples today. Now here are my final ante-post bets for Royal Ascot:
3.45 Royal Ascot Thursday (Gold Cup) The Gold Cup is as wide open as the Royal Hunt Cup this time around, with 13 horses quoted in offers under 30.0 on BETDAQ, 16 at 20-1 or less with bookmakers.
One reason for the difficulty in sifting the wheat from the chaff this year is that there are so many 2m winners and, in a race of sequence setters (Yeats most recently), the two previous winners that return next Thursday – Colour Vision and Rite Of Passage – don’t have plunge credentials.
Colour Vision hasn’t won since his triumph last year, while Rite Of Passage is now nine, and only Drum Taps (1993) and Yeats (2008-9) have scored over the age of six since 1929.
As a result both have dipped below the winning ratings parameter by Gold Cup heroes this century – 115 to 122 – with Colour Vision on 114 and Rite Of Passage 113.
That puts them all of a heap with pretenders Imperial Monarch (116), Cavalryman, Times Up and Willing Foe (all 115), High Jinx (113) and Saddlers Rock (112).
And the horses backed to break the mould, Estimate and Simenon, seem nowhere near good enough – at least half a stone short – with both on only 108. Can they really improve that much?
When you peruse your eyes over 21st-century results (I love tautology) the first thing that strikes you is how few English horses get into the picture; silver and bronze we may be, but them foreigners get the gold.
Of current trainers, apart from Team Godolphin, Mark Johnston and Paul Cole are the only English names etched on the Cup since Geoff Wragg’s in 1994, suggesting that we limey punters must look to France, Germany and Ireland for the winner.
Fresh from seeing Gemix stuff the English and Irish best in the French Champion Hurdle, I’m inclined to fancy Last Train as my first position on the race.
Strangely, the Gallic trial winner – he took the Prix de Barbeville (1m 7.5f) – is a close relation to Frankel but was confirming his ability as a stayer at the highest level after running second to Imperial Monarch in last year’s Grand Prix De Paris.
But what makes me think that Last Train – largely restricted to soft ground in France – is being underestimated for next Thursday is that his sire, Rail Link, had a massive record on firmish ground.
He failed to produce any winners on heavy, 8% on soft but a high 24% success rate from 46 runners on good to firm.
Last Train, who has had only eight races in his life, missing the frame only once, is as low as 14-1 with Corals and Bet365, but 21.0 on BETDAQ this morning, nigh on 50% better value. Steam in on the Train!
4.25 Royal Ascot Saturday (the Wokingham Stakes) Look for a classy sort (98 -101 rated have won 7 out of 10) aged four or five (8 out of 10) in the low 11 stalls (7 out of 10 but draw not yet known).
By Abbaye hero, Avonbridge, the very lightly raced mare (seven runs only on her CV) Hallelujah is a first position at 22.0 on BETDAQ this morning. Her price reflects worries about the ground
That’s also why she was 16-1 winner when she scored for me in a handicap at Newbury in May. It was good to firm then, and she won right enough; she has already been placed in a Group 3.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.7pts win PLEASURE BENT (4.00 Newbury)
BET 3pts win SILVER TIGRESS (6.20 Haydock)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win (nap) TOAST OF THE TOWN (1.50 Newbury) and 1pt win yankee the same one with PLEASURE BENT (4.00 Newbury), ALCAEUS (4.20 Yarmouth) and SILVER TIGRESS (6.20 Haydock)
ANTE-POST: BET 1.5pts win LAST TRAIN (Ascot Gold Cup, Thursday)
ANTE-POST: BET 1.4pts win HALLELUJAH (Wokingham Stakes, Saturday)
DAQMAN’S TARGETS: An ordinary day with singles to win 20 points. Ante-post bets this week are all staked to win 30 points.
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