THERE ARE BRIGHTER DAYS AHEAD: Though the forecast going is currently good to soft, rising temperatures could swing the odds for Cheltenham in favour of good-ground horses. The heat is on for ground staff to start watering later this week.
DOWN WITH THE ODDS-ON SHOTS: Daqman today chances two at double-figure offers, opposing odds-on shots at Fontwell and Wincanton.
YOUR CHELTENHAM DAY-3 FILE
LAYS LOGIC: The story of six consecutive beaten favourites in the opening race on Thursday relates to big-time runners next week.
Odds-on loser of the Mares’ Novices 2024 was Brighterdaysahead, this year’s challenger to Constitution Hill for the championship.
And the one that beat her at Cheltenham was Golden Ace, who is entered next week in both the Mares Hurdle and the Champion Hurdle.
⭕ 1.20 Cheltenham, THURSDAY (Mares’ Novices Hurdle) Ages: six-year-olds 5; five-year-olds 4. Ratings: 145, 147, 144, 138 notional, 141, 136, 135, 135, dropping to 124 last year. Eight had been placed in Grade 1 or 2. Trainers: W Mullins (five in a row 2016-2020).
LAYS LOGIC: Willie Mullins won with three straight favourites, but the last SIX market leaders have crashed: Epatante (2019) 9th 15-8, Minella Melody (2020) 18th 11-4; Royal Kahala (2021) 9th 9-2; Dinoblue 9th 11-8 (2022), Luccia 4th 6-4 (2023), Brighterdaysahead 2nd 5-6 (2024).
⭕ 2.40 Cheltenham (Pertemps Hurdle Final) Two favourites have won in 12 years; eight double-figure SPs.
Winner had six or more runs over hurdles (13/15) and previous success over 2m 4f or 2m 6f+ (12/15)
Ratings: 138, 139, 146, 139, 145, 152. 134, 141, 142, 138.
LAY LOGIC: Favourites prices usually too big to lay.
⭕ 3.20 Cheltenham (Ryanair Chase) Four favourites up out of 10. Age seven 5, nine 4. Course form essential: 16 out of 18 had previously won at Cheltenham or been placed in Grade 1 there.
Some 16 out of 18 had won over at least 20 furlongs; 15/18 had at least four chase wins, one or more at Graded level. Ratings: 161, 176, 171, 166, 169, 170, 162, 174, 163, 165.
⭕ 4.00 Cheltenham (Stayers Hurdle) Only three out of 11 to the favourite. Gavin Cromwell (one 12-1) and Gordon Eliott (one 33-1) have shared the last four, following Willie Mullins at 10-1 and 12-1. Ages: seven-year-old 6-8.
Some 16 of the last 17 winners all had at least one previous run at Cheltenham, 12 of them as winners; 17 out of 18 had won a Graded race. Ratings: 158, 168, 161, 153, 168, 146, 160, 164, 152, 162.
LAYS LOGIC: There’s always a hot favourite for this, there winning in the last nine years but seven from nine beaten from 2016 to 2023, as follows: 5th 11-4, WON evens, 3rd 5-6, 5th 9-4, WON 11-8, 7th 4-6, 3rd 9-4, 5th 11-4, 3rd 9-4 last year.
⭕ 4.40 Cheltenham (Plate) Favourites: three out of four between 2018 and 2021 are a cluster isolated among winners before that from 12-1 to 50-1 and in the last three years at 22-1, 20-1 and 8-1. Winner had previously scored from 2m 3f to 2m 5f (15/15).
Ages: 6 to 9 eight in a row until 11 and 10 (twice) in the last three years; weights 11st 5lb or less (14/14).
Ratings: 140, 142, 145, 147, 141, 149, 140, 145, 143, 143.
⭕ 5.20 Cheltenham, (Kim Muir Challenge Cup) Two favourites have won in the last 12 years, and 9/12 SPs range from 6-1 to 40-1 (twice).
Ages: 7 and 8 (10-12). Weight: 11st 4lb to 11st 9lb (6/10). Ratings: 137, 142, 137, 138, 143, 141, 142, 134, 131, 145. Ran at the festival before (9/15).
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites finished 4-1 UR (2016); 5-1 UR (2017), 4-1 2nd (2018), 3-1 8th (2019), 5-1 jt favs 7th and 11th (2020), 9-2 jt favs 2nd and PU in 2022; 7-2 fav 2nd in 2023.
CANARY TO CAGE ODDS-ON SHOT
⭕ 3.50 Wincanton Paul Nicholls punters have to buy money in this race ahead of Cheltenham, as they did when Largy Poet won it last year at 6-1 ON.
But the owners of stablemate Regents Stroll (1.15 on BETDAQ this morning), which cost them £660k at a dispersal sale last summer, have bought £8k in prizemoney so far with that outlay.
Regents Stroll has already come unstuck at odds on, beaten at Exeter in February at 8-11 favourite.
So I shall have my pound on 10-1 chance The Sainted Canary, who ran to the line well when finishing in front of 14 others here at Wincanton over the minimum and is bred for another mile!
⭕ 4.40 Fontwell J P McManus has 48 entries before the opening day of Cheltenham and those dazzled by his ‘bumblebee’ colours have bets today at Fontwell, Thurles and Wincanton.
He’s the man with the ‘golden arms’ – stashing £10m prizemoney in both England and Ireland in the last decade – and the horse of that name, the Irish pointer, Bras d’Or, makes his debut under Rules in this bumper.
But trainer David Pipe’s bumper runners are 000 in the last two weeks, including the weekend beaten favourite, Chemical Dave.
This is the time of year to catch Amanda Perrett, whose string struck form yesterday, and Commanche Princess looked big at around 12.0 on Betdaq Betting Exchange this morning.
⭕ 5.30 Newcastle Desiderata was the closer in early exchanges this morning, sole ride for Finley Marsh, who is 5-10 at Newcastle.
Wolverhampton winner in early January, it looked so easy for him that day that he was brought back to the track later in the week as favourite to follow up. Clearly best fresh, as he is today.
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
3.50 Wincanton (win 20)
BET 2pts win THE SAINTED CANARY
4.40 Fontwell (win 20)
BET 1.8pts win COMMANCHE PRINCESS
★ 5.30 Newcastle (win 20 nap)
BET 6pts win DESIDERATA
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