FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews GLADBACH v MAINZ and CAGLIARI v GENOA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
GLADBACH V MAINZ
7.30pm We’ve had a blockbuster week from Europe with the Last 16 kicking off from the Champions League and Europe League. Now we’re straight into another domestic weekend, and while we might not have the same level of glamorous fixtures on Friday night football, we do have two interesting markets on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. We have one fixture from the Bundesliga and one from Serie A – we kick off the night in the Bundesliga with Gladbach hosting Mainz. We have an exceptionally open betting heat here – Gladbach are marginal favourites at 2.72 with Mainz 2.8 and the draw 3.5 at the time of writing. This is a huge game for both sides in the race for European spots this season – Mainz have been on an incredible run this season. After being two points away from the bottom three last season, they come into this weekend sitting in fourth. Champions League football would be an absolute dream. Gladbach are still in with a shout too; they might be sitting eighth but they are only four points behind Mainz. Remarkably as well, Gladbach actually finish one point behind Mainz last season!
Although both sides clearly have some good momentum and there must be a good buzz around both clubs; they are both massively over-performing. Gladbach have an average xG created of 1.41 and Mainz are on 1.34 – both mid-table figures in the Bundesliga. They’ve both been poor at the back too; Mainz have an average xG conceded of 1.47 which is again a mid-table figure. However, Gladbach have an average xG conceded of 1.7 which is the second worst defensive figure in the Bundesliga this season! They could both easily be closer to the relegation zone again rather than the European spots, but so far this season sides haven’t been taking their chances against them, plus they’ve both been over-performing up front as well. It’s easy to see why we have such an open market here; it’s hard to have faith in either side. This game absolutely screams goals looking at the under-lining numbers, and Over 2.5 goals jumps off the page at 1.84. I was very surprised to see Overs trading as high as that given how many chances these two have been conceding; that’s worth a Five Star NAP in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GlaMai
CAGLIARI V GENOA
7.45pm We move over to Serie A to finish Friday night football, and we have another very open betting heat here as Cagliari host Genoa. Cagliari come into the game as the favourites at 2.52 with Genoa 3.4 and the draw is 3.15 at the time of writing. The home side are under pressure in the relegation battle; they come into this matchday sitting three points away from the bottom three. Genoa are a couple of spots ahead of them in the table, but they have a nice cushion of nine points – nothing really to worry about at the moment from their point of view. We have two sides here who play quite average football – they are right beside each other in the attacking table. Cagliari have an average xG created of 1.22 with Genoa at 1.22. Both have been really struggling to create good quality chances this season, and they have also been struggling to convert the chances they’ve created. Genoa are averaging less than a goal a game at the moment with Cagliari averaging just one goal per game. It’s not a surprise we have such an open betting heat with these two because it’s easy to pick holes in both of them.
While they aren’t as evenly matched at the back, they do have very similar figures. Cagliari have an average xG conceded of 1.51 and Genoa are lower at 1.38 – that is effectively what is creating the gap in points between the sides. Genoa have just been a little bit better at the back. With both sides so limited going forward, it’s hard to see past a pretty cagey affair here; it would definitely be a surprise if we saw a very open and attacking game filled with goals! The market is expecting a cagey affair too because Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.6. While I can see Unders landing, it’s hard to make the argument that the price should be massively shorter. I feel both sides will cancel each other out here in what should be a close game, and I’m happy to have a small bet on the draw at 3.15. I actually wouldn’t put anyone off backing 0-0 in the Correct Score market either, that’s trading around 8.4 at the time of writing.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.15 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CagGen
