WHO DARES WINS FOR BACK-TO-BACK NAPS: DAQMAN OF COURSE Winner-a-day Daqman continued in fine form yesterday with back-to-back naps, provided by a terrific surge at Salisbury by Dairerin, who clearly wasn’t for stopping.
WON 13-8 DAIRERIN (nap) Wednesday
WON 5-6 LUBNA (nap) Tuesday
CHECKING OUT THE SATURDAY STATS FOR THE PITMAN’S DERBY: After his focus on the Irish Derby ratings yesterday, Daqman checks out the stats for the other big ‘Derby’ on Saturday, the Northumberland Plate (Pitman’s Derby) at Newcastle, which opens its three-day meeting this afternoon.
PITMAN’S DERBY: STATS PICK NINE
East has probably gone West! Fortunately we had only a single point on East Asia for Saturday’s Northumberland Plate.
Despite being at number 47 on the card, and unlikely to get into the final 20, his 33-1 had been cut to 16-1.
Two each from Joseph O’Brien and Mark Johnston both get into the hot nine, based on the stats for age and rating.
⭕ 3.30 Newcastle, Saturday (Northumberland Plate) STATS: 4, 5, 6yo 9-10. Rating 96 to 107; last nine years: 101, 102, 96, 104, 99, 107, 99, 101, 98
102 SHOSHONE WARRIOR (4, Joseph O’Brien) Maiden winner only and raced just once over 2m; never seen on a man-made surface.
102 THEMAXWECAN (5, Mark Johnston) Has won at Ascot and Goodwood over 2m; his one run, one win, on AW was at Chelmsford in his early days.
101 BRILLIANT LIGHT (4, Saeed bin Suroor) 1-1 on AW at Wolverhampton; sole turf success at Sandown, 1m 2f. Yet to race beyond 1m 6f.
100 LUCKY DEAL (6, Mark Johnston) Five AW wins including over CD here at Newcastle; has also scored at Kempton (AW) and Haydock (turf) at 2m.
100 DUBIOUS AFFAIR (5, Charlie Fellowes) Second in 1m 6f handicap at Royal Ascot, and three in row over similar trips last summer. Sole 2m run was when outclassed in the British Champions Long Distance Cup in October.
099 ALRIGHT SUNSHINE (6, Keith Dalgleish) Not disgraced in Group-3 Sagaro Stakes over CD here last year, and Ayr winner over a furlong further.
099 BATTLE OF TORO (5, Team Crisford) Winning form on soft turf at 1m and 1m 2f; not seen on AW.
097 GRANDMASTER FLASH (5, Joseph O’Brien) All three wins on AW at Dundalk, one of them at 2m. Beaten 10 lengths in the Chester Plate over further.
096 AUSTRALIS (5, Roger Varian) All four wins have come on AW (two at 2m) and beaten only half a length here over today’s CD.
HARTSWOOD FAHEY HANDICAP PICK
⭕ 3.10 Newcastle (Seaton Delaval Handicap) The three-day Northumberland Plate meeting opens today with a race that invariably goes to four-year-olds.
One of only two of that age today, Chichester, is penalised for scoring yesterday, just holding on in the Carlisle Bell in first-time cheekpieces.
The other four-year-old, Richard Fahey’s Hartswood, has no Tapeta experience, his best form all at York since breaking his maiden and then being gelded.
But, ignoring first run back after a break, and deleting heavy-ground form, Hartswood is 123 over a mile, on the last day a fine third in a big-field Hambleton Handicap off today’s mark (Artistic Rifles well beaten, off new high mark).
Fahey also runs Crownthorpe, CD winner here in June, 2019 (class 3), but who has scored only once in class 2, and that on the soft.
Eagleway is also a soft-ground horse, probably flattered (he was 80-1) to finish second in the Victoria Cup last month.
Orbaan, behind Hartswood at York last year, has had wind surgery twice in the last eight months, once raced in that time, fifth in the Lincoln.
Andrew Balding’s Zwayyan has dropped 13lb in the last year but doesn’t show much sign of a revival since AW wins in 2018-19, and he’s eight now.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value 7.8 Hartswood (6.4 stablemate Crownthorpe as saver)
FOX CUNNING BET IF IT STAYS FIRM
⭕ 4.10 Newmarket (July course) Another three-day meeting, opening the July Course, features a similar handicap to the Newcastle event, but at 7f, with the better known names Fox Champion and Keyser Soze both finishing behind Eagleway in the Victoria Cup (On A Session in rear).
Fox Champion likes the firm ground and went down only a length in a class 2 at Haydock, first run for Ralph Beckett. Keyser Soze won a firm-ground apprentice handicap at Ascot in April.
Dulas finished half a length in front of Fox Champion at Haydock but was receiving 15lb; his Goodwood strike in May came on soft ground, and it’s doubtful that today’s showers will affect the going.
Ametist has been climbing the grades, his hat-trick completed with a brave effort on the Rowley Mile course but the placed horses haven’t done very much for the form.
BETDAQ value 6.6 Fox Champion
APPELLATION CONTROLS WEIGHTS
⭕ 7.15 Leicester This fillies’ handicap is one of those that heralds the dominance of three-year-olds over older horses with their easier weights at this time of year. Their score is 5-6 in this.
Richard Hughes rarely calls upon the services of William Buick. When he’s done so in the last five years, the combo has scored 5-12 for a 40%-plus record.
Appellation is their latest venture together, clearly needing this mile on the evidence of the requisite three runs as a maiden which gives her a kind spot in the handicap.
BETDAQ value 4.9 Appellation
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.10 Newcastle (win 20, win 10)
BET 3pts win HARTSWOOD
BET 1.75pts win CROWNTHORPE
4.10 Newmarket (win 20, nap)
BET 3.5pts win FOX CHAMPION
7.15 Leicester (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win APPELLATION
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
