FIVE NAPS IN A ROW: 11 OUT OF 13 BIG BETS UP: Despite the heatwave, everything in the Daqman garden is rosie! Since July 17, he’s landed 11 of 13 double-figure bets. Here they all are including yesterday’s fifth winning nap in a row, Rosie Probert, gambled in from around even money on BETDAQ.
WON 10-11 (10pts): ALONG AGAIN
WON 1-2 (20pts): TELESCOPE (banker nap)
WON 11-4 (10pts): GHASABAH
Unplaced (20pts): THUNDER STRIKE (banker nap)
WON 3-10 (20pts): MAPUTO (banker)
WON 5-4 (15pts): WAILA (nap)
Unplaced (10pts): RIPOSTE
WON 5-4 (12pts): DANK (nap)
WON 6-4 (13pts): STRONGLY SUGGESTED
WON 5-4 (10pts): DJINNI (nap)
WON 5-6 (20pts): CUT THE CARDS (banker nap)
WON 6-4 (12pts): BENNACHIE
WON 8-15 (10pts): ROSIE PROBERT (nap)
NOW IT’S 28 WINNERS IN 12 DAYS: With four wins yesterday – three winners and a double up – following four on Monday, Daqman has stepped up his two-a-day pace, so now he’s on 28 successes in 12 days.
65 POINTS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY PROFIT: His winners on Tuesday included another gamble, Bennachie, first time under NH rules, and Lost In Paris (WON 7-2) was among yesterday’s scorers, bringing his profit in the two days to 65 points.
It’s all about the trip to Mars. They’ve tried a mile, 10f and 12f. Now it’s 9f and last-chance saloon, since he lines up at Leopardstown tonight (7.20) as top rating, would you believe.
Though he’s been no nearer than third, since his winning debut maiden, Mars has finished close up in the Epsom Derby (6th), St James Palace Stakes (3rd) and Eclipse (4th), including within around three lengths of real stars in the racing firmament, Al Kazeem and Dawn Approach.
But that rating has been achieved grindingly slowly, 114 after Epsom, 117 after Royal Ascot, now 118. Hardly war-like. No way is he on another planet, like Famous Name, winner of this for the last three years.
Yet Famous Name, himself, was never marked up higher than 119, though he won 21 of 38 races. Granted ratings are age related and are revised at the end of a season, but – particularly after the demise of the Epsom Derby form – Mars looks overrated at 118.
He certainly has it to prove, even at Group 3 level tonight: he may have kept good company but he’s shown lack of a turn of foot where it matters.
And then there’s this search for his true distance. Has it been worked – and failed, albeit in top company – for that reason, and that reason alone: lack of another gear? A one-paced, classy colt can win races (his class saw him through,’ they will write afterwards).
But what offers will you take that this will happen? Would you have taken the 1.45 on BETDAQ this morning? Or the 8-13 with Ladbrokes? You’d have to fork out big at those prices, and he certainly doesn’t look a bank-busting, lump-on bet. What’s the alternative?
Sweet Lightning, La Collina, Elleval and Dane Street seem to act only on genuinely good ground or with a bit of ease. If it stays firm, Along Came Casey and Scintulla are favoured.
Along Came Casey got within half a length of Declaration Of War over 10f-plus at Dundalk, and Declaration of War was two lengths in front of Mars when runner-up to Al Kazeem in the Eclipse.
Scintulla was a very close fourth – might have been third but hampered – in Saturday’s Irish Oaks. Tactics will play a part. Jockeyship could be vital.
So which one is it to be? Well, the stats say that, if a three-year-old doesn’t do it, a five-year-old does. Three in the last eight years have won with more weight than Along Came Casey who has the added bonus of being fresher than the rest of the field, with only two runs this season.
At 5.3 offers on BETDAQ this morning, ‘Casey’ was certainly better value than the 1.45 Mars, who is a lay at that price and up to evens.
Only when you are well ahead of the game can you afford to take chances. Seat belts on! Put a rocket up Mars!
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points each, except for lay and banker)
BET 7pts win QAWAASEM and 4pts win LIGEIA (3.05 Sandown)
BANKER 20pts win (nap) PORTRAIT (3.50 Bath)
BET 3.5pts win on each MARMALADY and SUPA SEEKER (5.00 Bath)
LAY 10pts MARS and BET 4.6pts win ALONG CAME CASEY (7.20 Leopardstown)
BET 6pts win SHESASTAR and 4pts win DUTCH ROSE (7.50 Doncaster)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Portrait (3.50 Bath), Persepolis (4.15 Sandown) and Soryah (8.10 Epsom).
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