DAQMAN TAKES 21.0 OFFER: BETDAQ value abounds across the cards today at 21.0, 7.5, 6.0, 5.6 and 3.65 offers taken by Daqman
AYR GOLD CUP PREVIEW: The same trainers win the Gold, Silver and Bronze of this week’s Ayr Gold Cup, and stalls from the same area of the draw are a bonus indicator. See Daqman’s preview below.
HANDICAP TURNED UPSIDE DOWN
RESERVE JUDGMENT: One among a hundred warnings I’ve written for myself over the years is one which echoes the words of an Irish punter I know.
His advice sounds like ‘a bit of old Irish’ but I wish I’d remembered it yesterday: ‘When it comes to big Irish handicaps, turn the card upside down.’
He cited a sequence of four major handicaps in which three of them were won by reserves! On heavy ground those down the handicap have a bonus chance if they can get in.
Yesterday, I studied the form for the Kerry National, not considering the winner, Desertmore House, a reserve who stepped in after withdrawals; he was one of three at the foot of the handicap.
TIED BY THE RULES: Even if you bet in the morning, try to check on the runners nearer the race.
Look for the name Tom Marquand, who is desperately picking up spares. Though he’s just ridden 1,000 winners in Britain, his true intent – to be champion jockey – is being thwarted by the one-meeting rule, not repealed since Covid.
Marquand is currently 26 behind William Buick but leading on prizemoney won, while the punter’s champion, fourth-placed Rossa Ryan, is showing 140 points profit to a level stake.
AYR GOLD CUP WINNERS CLASH
⭕ 3.35 Ayr, Saturday (Ayr Gold Cup) The 146 acceptors for this 6f sprint will be carved into three for Gold and Silver on Saturday, with the Bronze starting the sequence in reverse order on Friday.
The bronze will cut off somewhere between 82 and 87; anything below 80 this year is unlikely to get a run.
What happens to Call Me Ginger is your guide to quality in the three races: as winner off 83 in the 2021 Bronze, he potentially leaps the medals with 90 in Saturday’s Gold (maximum field 25) but is number 39 so may drop into the top rank of the Silver, which was won off 90 only last year.
GOLD: The last two winners Summerghand (David O’Meara) and Bielsa (Kevin Ryan) could face off on Saturday: Summerghand (No 1 on the card), who won off 102, has a 5lb penalty; Bielsa (No 15), winner the year before off 98, is a pound higher on 99.
Gold-winning trainers this century: Kevin Ryan (5), Richard Fahey (2), David O’Meara (2); Andrew Balding and Clive Cox 1 each.
SILVER: Cox, Fahey and Ryan in the decade; BRONZE: Tim Easterby (2), Fahey.
🔢 WINNER BY STALL (last four seasons): Bronze, Silver, Gold: 23-10-12, 4-2-25, 21-4-13. 9-5-24. In all four years, the low-drawn half of the field (1 to 13) had two out of three in the frame across the three races.
21.0 BOROUGH IS BETDAQ VALUE
TODAY:⭕ Ayr 2.25 Big field but big BETDAQ offers: 21.0 about Borough brings together trainer Iain Jardine claiming 5lb off William Pyle.
Their score is 75% at Ayr as a combo and CD winner Borough is 1212 here on good-to-soft ground.
⭕ 3.00 Ayr (Kilkerran Cup Handicap, 1m 2f) Ayr opens with a good race for the stats: runners aged three and four are winners of this as far back as I could go.
Euchen Glen (aged 10) was runner–up in the Doonside Cup at this meeting last year but is having his 64th race today and has performed ever since between 1m 4f and 2m 2f.
What’s The Story (9) has scored only once in his last 19 starts, since taking a four-horse race at Ayr 13 months back.
Cockalorum (8) is 0200 sprinkled over more than four years at Ayr, dropping down to class 3 over 1m 1f to score the last day at Hamilton.
Mr Alan is the first youngster to catch my eye: beaten a nose in this very race last year. It’s hard to find a strong opponent for him.
Painters Palette has been making steady progress but has only just reached class-3 level and that was on AW, while Auld Toon Loon is a class-4 winner and Fools Rush in has performed mainly over 7f.
Austrian Territory is a mile winner on firm; Thundering way out of form this year: last of seven, last of 14, last of 15.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 6.0 Mr Alan
THEY’RE UNEQUAL ON SOFT GROUND
⭕ 3.45 Pontefract (6f fillies’ handicap) Unequal Love’s dam’s sire, Pivotal, shouts ‘soft ground’ to me every time I see her in the breeding.
And the Willam Haggas filly she has in this handicap is already a winner on soft, and by a sire whose progeny also love the ground.
Hello Queen, lucky to keep her class-4 Doncaster race after hampering the favourite near the finish, has been let down by that gelding’s moderate performance at Pontefract since.
In four consecutive races, Glorious Angel has struggled with her 87 rating, could be bang there again (for a hat-trick of seconds) without appealing as the winner.
Tom Marquand rides Unequal Love for William Haggas. Together with a 30% strike rate at Pontefract. BETDAQ 3.65 taken.
THEIRS IS EQUAL EDGE ON SOFT
⭕ 4.30 Yarmouth Imaginary World is 1323 in class-4 handicaps; his only dip was when he ventured into class 2 at Haydock.
Rossa Ryan rides with every chance of stopping a hat-trick by Divine Comedy, who has been whacked a massive 13lb for an easy class 5 on firm the last day.
The forecast rain should help Imaginary World, while it is an unknown for the maiden Tajanis (first-time blinkers) and Sailing On.
A bigger threat is Edge Of Darkness, dropping down from class-2 attempts after an August double, which included a soft-ground strike at Thirsk.
BETDAQ value: 5.6 Imaginary World, 7.5 Edge Of Darkness
2.25 Ayr (win 20)
BET 1pt win and place BOROUGH
3.00 Ayr (win 20)
BET 4pts win MR ALAN
3.45 Pontefract (win-12 nap)
BET 4.5pts win UNEQUAL LOVE
4.30 Yarmouth (each to win 12)
BET 2.6pts win IMAGINARY WORLD
BET 1.8pts win EDGE OF DARKNESS
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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