7-4 DAQMAN NAP! THREE CHEERS FOR CHARES KENTUCKY DERBY DREAM: Daqman spotted a potential star when he napped French colt Chares (WON 7-4), a 710,000-euro buy who powered home in the Road To The Kentucky Derby feature at Kempton Park last night to retain his unbeaten record. It was nap number 51 of the season, taking his profit to 154.57 to 10-point stakes.
MORE DAQMAN CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL STATS: EVERY RACE EVERY DAY: It’s Day 3 (the Thursday card) of Daqman’s stats for every race every day at next week’s Cheltenham Festival. Match them to the cards and winkle out the winners from the BETDAQ ante-post odds and offers. Tomorrow: Friday for Friday. Next week: Daqman’s analysis of every race at the meeting as it happens.
SANDOWN AND LEICESTER LOST ON FRIDAY: The Sandown and Leicester cards for tomorrow have both been abandoned because of waterlogging. Ffos Las remains, plus AW meetings at Chelmsford, Dundalk and Wolverhampton. There will be a Friday inspection for Sandown Saturday. DAQMAN switches to the all-weather for today’s NAP at Southwell.
FESTIVAL STATS: RACE BY RACE
⚠️ HEADS UP: Check out the markets and go gleaning for value from Daqman’s stats-and-facts survey of every race at next week’s Cheltenham Festival. Here’s your guide to ratings, trainers, form, age, weight and favourites for Thursday (Tuesday and Wednesday are in the Archive).
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham, Thursday (Marsh Novices’ Chase)
Favourites have won four of the first nine runnings since the name was changed from the Golden Miller. Ages: 6 and 7 only.
The Irish have won seven out of the nine: Willie Mullins (4). Ratings: 154, 152, 155, 144, 151.
You need a previous festival runner over hurdles (9/9) who is a distance winner plus (9/9) and, for preference, has won a Graded chase or hurdle (8/9)
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham, Thursday (Pertemps Hurdle Final)
Two favourites won in 10 years; six were double-figure SPs. Six-year-olds best (4/7). Carried no more than 11st 4lb, and had six to 10 runs over hurdles (8/10).
Trainers: Gordon Elliott (2), Patrick Kelly (2), David Pipe (2). Ratings: 138, 139, 146, 139, 145. Winners between 2m 4f and 2m 6f (8/10).
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham, Thursday (Ryanair Chase)
Three favourites won. Ages 7 and 8 (7/8). Course form essential: 11 out of 13 had previously won at Cheltenham.
Eleven out of 13 had won over at least 20 furlongs; 11/13 had at least four chase wins, one of them in a Graded. Ratings: 161, 176, 171, 166, 169.
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham, Thursday (Stayers Hurdle)
Five out of 10 to the favourite, but Willie Mullins (2) won with two at double-figure SPs. Ages 6 and 7 (5/6).
The last 13 winners had at least one previous run at Cheltenham, 10 of them as winners; 12 out of 13 had won a Graded race. Ratings: 158, 168, 161, 153, 168.
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham, Thursday (Stable Plate)
Favourites: 2/10; outsiders 12-1 to 50-1 (7/10). Won from 2m 3f to 2m 5f (10/10).
Trainers: David Pipe (3). Ages: six to nine (9/10); weights 10st 13lb or less (9/10). Ratings: 140, 142, 145, 147, 141.
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham, Thursday (Mares’ Novices Hurdle)
Favourites three out of four. Ages: all five-year-olds.
Trainers: W Mullins (4/4). Ratings: 145, 147, 144, 138 notional. Placed in Grade 1 or 2.
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham, Thursday (Kim Muir)
Two favourites and one big outsider but mainly 10-3 to 9-1 SP (seven out of 10).
Ages: 7, 8, 9 (nine out of 10). Weight: 11st 4lb or more (9/10). Ratings: 137, 142, 137, 138, 143. Ran at the festival before (8/10).
MESMERISED BY SOUTHWELL NAP
1.50 Wincanton I’m struggling for enthusiasm to back Hollymount Holly here on her hurdling debut at around even money. Whilst she won her bumper and Point in good style she had her limitations thoroughly exposed when beating only one home in a Listed Market Rasen bumper.
Although this is a step down in class, price, as ever, dictates and she makes little appeal for a stable whose recent runners are 1-11 with the sole winner being a 4/11 winner in a three horse race.
Born In Borris makes her Rules debut having won an Irish Point at Ballycrystal very easily and is clearly interesting, although quite weak in the betting which might be our best guide with little else to go on.
A chance is taken with Little River Bay for Hobbs/Johnson. She showed promise on her Plumpton debut in a bumper. The ground was bottomless that day and she should do better with it being slightly less testing and with the experience of that run behind her.
Hopefully she will be a ‘bet to nothing’ and I will cover the win stake with a place saver.
2.35 Southwell Not a bad maiden and the percentage call has to be Mesmeric who showed plenty of promise here last week over today’s trip when second to Queen Of All.
That was a big step up on his debut at Lingfield where the Mark Johnston trained runner only beat one home and with a similar level improvement he should prove hard to beat given the valuable course experience box now has a big tick in the box.
Although there were only four runners in last week’s race contested by Mesmeric, Queen Of All looks, in all probability, well above average for the track and is now unbeaten in two starts. Mesmeric did put some decent ground between himself and the other pair.
The filly Betushka has shaped well enough on her two starts, both at Newcastle, but on both occasions has struggled to get home over the mile and it might be tougher for her still on the Fibresand.
Shoot To Win is probably a bigger danger after his debut 66/1 second at Newcastle. He should build on that effort if handling the switch in surface. However he hasn’t been particularly strong though in the early BETDAQ market.
6.30 Newcastle The handicapper has given I Know How a chance of the C&D hat-trick.
Whilst he is up 10lb since his first win here in December, he had plenty in hand when following up last month and might still be ahead of the game.
Mia Mento is favourite after her promising course and distance fourth when meeting trouble in running but after making a winning debut at Leopardstown when trained in Ireland has failed to win since and not the most reliable to be taking short odds about.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all staked to win 10 points, except for place bet stakes saver as advised)
BET 1.7pts win and 1.7pts place (win bet stakes saver) LITTLE RIVER BAY (1.50 Wincanton)
BET 3.7pts win (nap) MESMERIC (2.35 Southwell)
BET 2.6pts win I KNOW HOW (6.30 Newcastle)
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