BANKER WIN MAKES IT THREE NAPS UP OUT OF FOUR: Daqman unleashed a 20-point banker at York yesterday, Telescope (WON 5-4), giving him three odds-against naps up from the last four. The two others were Green Monkey (WON 7-4) and Verema (WON 14-5).
CONFIDENT VOTE FOR 6-1 BROXBOURNE: Daqman went close in the opener with Face The Problem (3rd 16-1) before his handicap killing came in the two-miler with a confident vote for the mare, Broxbourne (WON 6-1), to bring his profit to 40 points in the last two days.
OPPOSE THE FAVOURITES AT YORK: J Wonder, The Fugue and Our Obsession. What do they have in common? All favourites on BETDAQ this morning, all opposed by Daqman, who seems to bank on the Irish today: the Ballydoyle stable and Johnny Murtagh riding for English yards.
1.55 York They were going Ascot fast at York yesterday and two of the winners made all the running over 6f and 7f. I’m picking two fillies in the opener.
It has a trainer in form bidding for a hat-trick in the race: what more do you want? Name of Kevin Ryan, who won yesterday’s big handicap with Bogart, winner of this one two years ago before Ryan followed up last season with Hototo.
Both were ridden by Philip Makin, who partners Sleeper King for the same stable today. Snag is that Paul Mulrennan (Yorkshire Relish) has a 42% strike-rate for
Ryan in this type of race, and it was Neil Callan (Touch The Clouds) who had the winning ride on Bogart yesterday
Ryan has a five runners all told: the one I like is Super Sprint third Oasis Town (Silvestre De Sousa), a filly who gets 10lb off those penalised colts: low drawn, 13.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
Hototo was a rare winner, the only one in the last decade to carry a penalty. No others carried more than the allotted weight for colts (8st 11lb) and fillies (8st 6lb).
Sleeper King and Yorkshire Relish both have class-3-win penalties. Touch The Clouds does not, despite progressing 16lb on the official ratings as he completed a hat-trick over 5f this month. Will he get the extra furlong?
The finisher could be Fair Ranger, who beat a Goodwood winner and an Ascot winner last time out. Snag (there’s always one, isn’t there): can he lie up for Moore to get to work on him in the later stages?
And, like Ryan, his trainer, Richard Hannon, wants more than one crack at this £154,000 prize. Richard Hughes prefers the stable’s Thunder Strike.
Miracle Of Medinah and Thunder Strike have beaten each other this year. Both have the capacity to play catch-me, having made all in past success.
Classy and experienced, that’s Ventura Mist (high drawn, 12.0 on BETDAQ), who improved on her Queen Mary eighth when getting much closer to the fourth horse, Fig Roll, in a Listed at Newmarket.
Daqman’s verdict: 1 Oasis Town, 2 Ventura Mist, 3 Fair Ranger
2.30 York (Lowther Stakes) This has thrown up two Cheveley Park winners in three years. It’s a day in which Brian Meehan always does well, and his filly, J Wonder, who is entered for the big Newmarket two-year-old ‘classic’, is unbeaten.
In fact, rank outsider, Azagal, is the only runner today not entered in the Cheveley Park so the winner of this is very likely to have a crack at it. But it doesn’t look the strongest Lowther.
Though she’s done well, I can’t be a J Wonder man, because of the poor Manton strike-rate (currently 1-14). Some of the other stables are no better – worse even – with Eve Johnson Houghton 0-15, Jeremy Noseda 0-9, David Brown 1-9.
The Norfolk Stakes third, Wind Fire, didn’t seem to like the extra furlong or the fast ground – or both – returned to Ascot but scored on good ground over the minimum last time out.
She can’t beat Queen Catrine on the evidence of that last Ascot run but she in turn is well held by Lucky Kristale (Group 2 on the July Course), though the trainer thought she was a little ‘flat’ and Johnny Murtagh has been brought in to do the business today.
But, subsequently, the fifth filly home in the July race turned round the form (blinkered first time) and beat Queen Catrine. In a hard betting race I’ll rely on Murtagh at 7.8 Queen Catrine to make up the ground on Lucky Kristale that’s still needed despite Kristale’s penalty.
Daqman’s verdict: 1 Queen Catrine, 2 Lucky Kristale
3.05 York A York winner with pattern-race form won the big handicap yesterday. That applies here to Navajo Chief and Anderiego, first and second in different Listed events on the course. Pintura, in the frame in a Group 1 last season, is also a York scorer.
But the stats show a clean sweep for horses aged three and four. Not one older has won this race in the decade. Not a one.
Have we, therefore, eliminated 60% of the field. Unlikely. But I certainly think we should concentrate on the youngsters.
The snag with three of them – Hot Bed, Pacific Heights and Validus – is their wide draw from 15, 20 and 18 respectively. Only one horse (Navajo Chief 2011) has won this so high in the decade.
Five of the last nine came from stalls 1 (three times), 4 and 6, which puts Wentworth (from 6) well to the fore, as well he should be on form.
There wasn’t much between Wentworth and Queensberry Rules (stall 7 today) in the Britannia at Royal Ascot and your choice between them hangs on this:
Do you forgive Queensberry Rules a bad run over shorter when badly drawn last time out? Wentworth’s next run was a dramatic Goodwood Mile win but that means he’s up 7lb and worse off with Queensberry Rules (9.0 this morning) on Royal Ascot form. Johnny Murtagh won this for her trainer, William Haggas, on Roaring Forte (2009) last time they teamed up for this race
Don’t worry, the cavalry are coming, the legions who realize that betting on BETDAQ creates value. So it is here with 103% total in the orange compared with a massive 131% Total SP for the race last year. It means we can back both.
Daqman’s verdict: 1 Queensberry Rules, 2 Wentworth, 3 Navajo Chief.
3.40 York (Yorkshire Oaks) Three-year-olds have beaten four-year-olds 6-4 in the decade, and punters usually get this race right.
Five favourites have won and the longest odds returned about the winner in the decade was 13-2 SP in 2005.
Lack of pace to the race probably cost Venus De Milo the Irish Oaks after only six weeks in training. She is a late improver the manner of a Telescope as the three-year-olds develop late this year and overtake the Guineas and Derby form.
Her trainer, Aidan O’Brien, hit the Knavesmire running yesterday with Foundry’s Great Voltigeur second after a lay-off and Declaration of War’s tough-as-teak defeat of Irish Derby winner, Eclipse winner et al in the International, albeit with Toronado putting in one of his bad runs, reminiscent of his Guineas flop.
The Fugue is stuck in a rut. She hasn’t won a race since her rating was upped to 116 after taking last year’s Nassau Stakes. It’s stayed on that mark ever since.
The Fugue has met only the best in five consecutive Group 1s. She’s been a ‘nearly’ filly all through, her ‘nearliest’ being an unlucky third in the Breeders Cup, which is her target again.
She has to bounce back here but there’s a fabulous 101% BETDAQ ‘book’ of offers in the orange so I can back Venus De Milo to continue her improvement and have a stakes saver on The Fugue.
Daqman’s verdict: 1 Venus De Milo, 2 The Fugue
4.20 (Galtres Stakes) This race will be the swan-song for several of these fillies, who are heading for the paddocks and the breeding boxes, hoping to get some black type from this for the sales catalogues.
Ballydoyle should have its Say again, the filly returning to 1m 4f after excellent efforts over shorter.
But the race seemed to be in the hands of Johnny Murtagh again on the tearaway Bite Of The Cherry, whose on the right course to make all, if yesterday’s results are anything to go by.
What’s this then? Bite Of The Cherry is a lonely dog on a raft, drifted well over the betting weir to 50.0, while the handicapper, Our Obsession, has been promoted favourite. Weird or what? I’ll Say!
Daqman’s verdict: 1 Say, 2 Songbird, 3 Our Obsession.
all main bets to win 30 points
GOLD VALUE BETS: 2.6pts win VENTURA MIST and 2.4pts win OASIS TOWN (1.55 York)
GOLD VALUE BET: 4.4pts win QUEEN CATRINE and 1.5pts win (stakes saver) LUCKY KRISTALE (2.30 York)
VALUE BET: 7pts win WENTWORTH and 4pts win QUEENSBERRY RULES (3.05 York)
GOLD VALUE BET: 12.5pts win (nap) VENUS DE MILO and 3.8pts win (stakes saver) THE FUGUE (3.40 York)
GOLD VALUE BET: 5.75pts win SAY (4.20 York)
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